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How To Profit From AI Correction: 5 Defensive Plays And 4 Sectors Set To Surge
Benzinga· 2025-09-25 16:09
Core Insights - The artificial intelligence sector is showing signs of a potential significant correction, with AI stocks, particularly the "Magnificent Seven," making lower highs since December 2024, diverging from broader market performance [1][20] - Investors are increasingly seeking hedging strategies and alternative opportunities as AI unicorn valuations reach $2.7 trillion despite limited revenue and profits [2][24] Defensive Hedging Instruments - Volatility ETFs, such as ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY), provide leveraged exposure to short-term VIX futures, effective during market stress, with current VIX hedging premiums at 2.2% for a one-year put option on the S&P 500 [3] - ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY) offers non-leveraged volatility exposure, historically delivering exceptional returns during market crises [4] - Inverse ETFs like ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) deliver three times the inverse daily performance of the Nasdaq-100, surging 30% during recent market volatility [5][6] Treasury Bonds and TIPS - Long-duration Treasury bonds, particularly iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), benefit from flight-to-quality dynamics during equity corrections, averaging 2.1% gains during significant VIX spikes [7] - Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) offer protection against inflation and downside protection during market stress [8] Defensive Sector ETFs - Consumer staples and utilities sectors provide stability during market corrections, with Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) offering exposure to recession-resistant companies [9] - iShares U.S. Utilities ETF (IDU) provides exposure to the utilities sector, known for stable demand and consistent dividend yields [10] Sectors Primed to Soar During an AI Correction - The energy sector may benefit from AI's power demands, with companies like Constellation Energy anticipating 10% annual earnings growth through 2028 driven by AI demand [11] - Basic materials, particularly copper, are essential for AI infrastructure, with significant demand growth expected [12][13] - Small-cap value stocks are historically positioned to outperform during corrections in expensive growth stocks, with the Russell 2000 Value index showing strong relative performance [14][15] Geographic Diversification - Emerging market equities provide low correlation to US tech stocks, offering diversification benefits during AI corrections, with ETFs like Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) gaining popularity [16][17] Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - REITs offer portfolio protection during stock market corrections due to low correlation with equities and consistent dividend income [18][19] Current Market Dynamics and Timing Considerations - Hedge fund positioning indicates increasing caution toward US stocks, with major funds adjusting portfolios amid the AI boom [20] - Market technicals suggest the S&P 500 must hold above 5860–5885 to avoid confirming a drop into the 5600 region, which could trigger a larger correction [21]