Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the differentiated economic conditions, with rising prices in the oil and chemical chain, an upward shift in emerging technology sectors, and strong growth in travel and consumer goods in the first quarter [1][2]. Group 2 - The oil chain continues to see price increases due to disruptions in oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude oil futures settling at a +11.3% increase as of March 13, and domestic chemical prices rising by +12.5% [2]. - Emerging technology sectors, particularly in semiconductors, show significant growth, with South Korea's semiconductor exports increasing by +40.0% year-on-year as of February 2026, and domestic machinery exports rising by +27.1% [3]. - Traditional consumer sectors are experiencing a slight decline, with real estate transactions in 30 major cities down by -3.8% year-on-year, while tourism remains strong, evidenced by a +281.9% increase in visitor numbers at Shanghai Disneyland [4]. Group 3 - Passenger transport volume in major cities has increased by +5.5% year-on-year, indicating robust travel activity, while freight transport also shows growth with national road and rail freight volumes up by +0.6% and +4.3% respectively [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating. Core Views - The report analyzes various financial products, including bonds, stock indices, and commodities, and provides model - based views on their trends. The views are classified as "看多" (bullish), "调整" (adjustment), and "震荡" (sideways). Bullish products include 3 - year AAA medium - short - term notes, 2 - year treasury bonds, and the Wind Micro - cap Index. Products in adjustment include 30 - year treasury bonds, 10 - year treasury bonds, the Wind All - A Index, the CSI Dividend Total Return Index, the Hang Seng Tech Index, the STAR 50 Index, and the China Securities 2000 Index. Sideways products include COMEX gold and IPE Brent crude oil [2][3][6]. Summary by Related Content Bond Analysis - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: The original signal is 72.23%, MA5 is 71.18%, the model view is "调整" (adjustment), and the signal has lasted for 6 trading days [2][6][7]. - **3 - year AAA Medium - short - term Note**: The original signal is 93.88%, MA5 is 27.75%, the model view is "看多" (bullish), and the signal has lasted for 4 trading days [2][6][7]. - **10 - year Treasury Bond**: The original signal is 77.63%, MA5 is 66.70%, the model view is "调整" (adjustment), and the signal has lasted for 3 trading days [2][6][7]. - **2 - year Treasury Bond**: The original signal is 5.82%, MA5 is 27.35%, the model view is "看多" (bullish), and the signal has lasted for over 10 trading days [2][6][7]. Stock Index Analysis - **Wind All - A Index**: The original signal is 82.26%, MA5 is 60.51%, the model view has changed from "震荡" (sideways) to "调整" (adjustment), and the signal has lasted for 1 trading day [2][6][7]. - **CSI Dividend Total Return Index**: The original signal is 46.79%, MA5 is 61.58%, the model view has changed from "震荡" (sideways) to "调整" (adjustment), and the signal has lasted for 1 trading day [2][6][7]. - **Hang Seng Tech Index**: The original signal is 87.97%, MA5 is 71.03%, the model view is "调整" (adjustment), and the signal has lasted for 2 trading days [2][6][7]. - **STAR 50 Index**: The original signal is 77.75%, MA5 is 73.52%, the model view is "调整" (adjustment), and the signal has lasted for over 10 trading days [2][6][7]. - **Wind Micro - cap Index**: The original signal is 60.71%, MA5 is 30.48%, the model view is "看多" (bullish), and the signal has lasted for 7 trading days [2][6][7]. - **China Securities 2000 Index**: The original signal is 62.11%, MA5 is 61.27%, the model view is "调整" (adjustment), and the signal has lasted for 4 trading days [2][6][7]. Commodity Analysis - **COMEX Gold**: The original signal is 53.33%, MA5 is 58.47%, the model view is "震荡" (sideways), and the signal has lasted for 2 trading days (not yet closed, postponed by one trading day) [2][6][7]. - **IPE Brent Crude Oil**: The original signal is 28.07%, MA5 is 41.07%, the model view is "震荡" (sideways), and the signal has lasted for 4 trading days (not yet closed, postponed by one trading day) [2][6][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short term, precious metal prices may still be under pressure due to geopolitical games in the Middle East and a significant retreat in the market's expectations of easing by major global central banks. Whether this trading situation can ease depends on the intensity and duration of the current Middle East geopolitical conflict [3]. - In the long - term, the allocation value of gold remains. Against the backdrop of continuous global geopolitical uncertainties and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, global central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which is expected to support precious metal prices. After recent shocks, it is less likely for precious metal prices to continue to decline significantly, and investors can consider long - term long - position allocation opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - **15 - point price on March 19, 2026**: London gold spot was $4765.37/ounce, London silver spot was $72.25/ounce, COMEX gold was $4767.50/ounce, COMEX silver was $74.70/ounce, AU2604 was 1062 yuan/gram, AG2604 was 18023 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1078.69 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 18450 yuan/kilogram [4]. - **Price changes from March 18 to March 19**: London gold spot dropped 4.9%, London silver spot dropped 9.5%, COMEX gold dropped 4.9%, COMEX silver dropped 6.6%, AU2604 dropped 4.6%, AG2604 dropped 9.9%, AU (T + D) dropped 3.0%, and AG (T + D) dropped 7.5% [4]. - **Spread/ratio tracking**: On March 19, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was 16.69 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was 427 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 21.92 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 306 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 58.92, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 63.82, AU2604 - 2602 was 3.26 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 30 yuan/kilogram [4]. Position Data - **As of March 18, 2026**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 1066.99 tons, silver ETF - SLV was 15264.40028 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 215445 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 52313 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 163132 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 8728 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 24578 contracts [4]. - **Changes from March 17 to March 18**: Gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.24%, silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.81%, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 0.79%, non - commercial short positions decreased by 2.41%, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 1.87%, non - commercial short positions decreased by 19.84%, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 5.31% [4]. Inventory Data - **On March 19, 2026**: SHFE gold inventory was 106845 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 364865 kilograms. On March 18, COMEX gold inventory was 32140344 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 335075635 troy ounces [4]. - **Inventory changes**: SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory increased by 5.17%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.30%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.83% [4]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - **On March 19, 2026**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.90. On March 18, the US dollar index was 100.30, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.76%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.26%, VIX was 25.09, the S&P 500 was 6624.70, and NYMEX crude oil was $99.05 [4]. - **Rate changes**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.10%, the US dollar index increased by 0.74%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 2.17%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.43%, VIX increased by 12.16%, the S&P 500 decreased by 1.36%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 3.16% [4]. Market Analysis - **Market review**: On March 19, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 4.64% to 1062 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 10.35% to 17984 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Influence analysis**: The mutual attacks on oil and gas infrastructure between Israel and Iran boosted oil prices, and the hawkish remarks of the Fed's Powell after the August interest - rate decision led to a sharp decline in precious metal prices. The market once expected the Bank of England to raise interest rates three times this year due to the Middle East geopolitical situation. The hawkish stance of the Fed triggered a wave of interest - rate hike trading in the precious metal market, causing a liquidity shock and a sharp decline in precious metal prices. Subsequently, the market's liquidity risk eased, and the decline in precious metal prices narrowed [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 18, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.79% to 1,116.2 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 1.19% to 20,308 yuan/kilogram [3]. - The attack by Israel on Iran's largest gas field and subsequent escalation of Middle - East geopolitical tensions, along with the large - than - expected increase in US PPI in February and market concerns about a further sharp rise in March, have weakened the Fed's rate - cut expectation this year, putting heavy pressure on precious metal prices [3]. - In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical situation may not ease and has a risk of further escalation. The intensifying energy crisis may continue to impact the precious metal market, but the room for a further significant decline in precious metal prices is relatively limited. In the long run, with the probability of the Fed cutting rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies can choose to gradually allocate long positions on dips recently [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - **内外盘金银15点价格**: On March 18, 2026, London gold spot was $5,011.01/ounce, London silver spot was $79.84/ounce, COMEX gold was $5,015.40/ounce, COMEX silver was $80.00/ounce. Compared with March 17, the prices of gold remained almost unchanged, and silver dropped by 1.1%. For domestic contracts, AU2604 was 1,113.52 yuan/gram, AG2604 was 19,997 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1,112 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 19,948 yuan/kilogram, with decreases of 0.2% - 1.8% [3]. - **价差/比价跟踪**: On March 18, 2026, the gold ID - SHFE active price difference was - 1.52 yuan/gram, the silver ID - SHFE active price difference was - 49 yuan/kilogram. The gold internal - external price difference (TD - London) was 1.82 yuan/gram, and the silver internal - external price difference (TD - London) was - 35 yuan/kilogram. The SHFE gold - silver main contract ratio was 55.68, and the COMEX gold - silver main contract ratio was 62.70. Compared with March 17, the price difference and ratio had different degrees of changes, with the largest change in the silver ID - SHFE active price difference, a decrease of 63.2% [3]. 2. Position Data - As of March 17, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1,069.56 tons, a decrease of 0.11% compared with March 16. The silver ETF - SLV was 15,389.752 tons, an increase of 0.22%. For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the long position was 215,445 contracts, an increase of 0.79%, the short position was 52,313 contracts, a decrease of 2.41%, and the net long position was 163,132 contracts, an increase of 1.87%. For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the long position was 33,306 contracts, a decrease of 2.69%, the short position was 8,728 contracts, a decrease of 19.84%, and the net long position was 24,578 contracts, an increase of 5.31% [3]. 3. Inventory Data - On March 18, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 106,845 kilograms, an increase of 1.45% compared with March 17. The SHFE silver inventory was 346,920 kilograms, a decrease of 1.93%. On March 17, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 32,236,075 troy ounces, a decrease of 0.49% compared with March 16, and the COMEX silver inventory was 337,892,693 troy ounces, a decrease of 0.50% [3]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 18, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.89, a decrease of 0.08% compared with March 17. The US dollar index was 99.56, a decrease of 0.25% compared with March 16. The 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.68%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.20%, a decrease of 0.71%. The VIX index was 22.37, a decrease of 4.85%. The S&P 500 index was 6,716.09, an increase of 0.25%. The NYMEX crude oil price was $96.02, an increase of 1.91% [3].

- The report includes a quantitative timing model that outputs probabilities for short-term movements in bond yields or stock indices. The model uses historical data to estimate probabilities and provides multi-directional views (bullish, bearish, or neutral) based on thresholds of 40% and 60% for probabilities. Probabilities above 60% indicate bullish sentiment, below 40% indicate bearish sentiment, and between 40%-60% indicate neutral sentiment [5][6]. - The model's specific construction involves calculating daily timing signals and a 5-day moving average (MA5) of these signals. The timing signals represent the probability of upward or downward movements in the target asset. For example, the 30-year government bond signal is calculated as 76.88% for the day, with an MA5 of 67.56%, indicating an "adjustment" view. Similarly, the 2-year government bond signal is 7.40%, with an MA5 of 30.40%, indicating a "bullish" view [5][6]. - The model evaluates multiple assets, including government bonds (2-year, 10-year, 30-year), corporate bonds (3-year AAA medium-term notes), stock indices (e.g., CSI All A Index, CSI Dividend Total Return Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, STAR 50 Index, Wind Micro Index, and CNI 2000 Index), and commodities (COMEX Gold and IPE Brent Oil). Each asset is assigned a daily signal, MA5, and a directional view (bullish, bearish, or neutral) [5][6]. - The model's performance is assessed through the persistence of signals over multiple trading days. For example, the bullish signal for COMEX Gold has persisted for over 10 trading days, while the adjustment signal for the CSI All A Index has persisted for 4 trading days. This persistence is used to validate the model's reliability in predicting short-term movements [5][6]. - The report provides detailed backtesting results for each asset, including daily timing signals, MA5 values, and directional views. For instance, the CSI Dividend Total Return Index has a daily signal of 65.65% and an MA5 of 55.78%, indicating a "neutral" view. Similarly, the STAR 50 Index has a daily signal of 86.91% and an MA5 of 77.16%, indicating an "adjustment" view [5][6]. - The model is qualitatively evaluated as a useful tool for short-term market timing, providing actionable insights for various asset classes. However, the report highlights potential risks, such as model failure due to changing market conditions, factor failure, and data quality issues [5][6][7]. - Backtesting results for the quantitative timing model: - 30-year government bond: daily signal 76.88%, MA5 67.56%, view "adjustment" [5][6] - 3-year AAA medium-term notes: daily signal 17.77%, MA5 26.20%, view "bullish" [5][6] - 10-year government bond: daily signal 74.05%, MA5 60.92%, view "adjustment" [5][6] - 2-year government bond: daily signal 7.40%, MA5 30.40%, view "bullish" [5][6] - CSI All A Index: daily signal 35.32%, MA5 64.67%, view "adjustment" [5][6] - CSI Dividend Total Return Index: daily signal 65.65%, MA5 55.78%, view "neutral" [5][6] - Hang Seng Technology Index: daily signal 62.49%, MA5 59.50%, view "neutral" [5][6] - STAR 50 Index: daily signal 86.91%, MA5 77.16%, view "adjustment" [5][6] - Wind Micro Index: daily signal 22.76%, MA5 16.86%, view "bullish" [5][6] - CNI 2000 Index: daily signal 49.34%, MA5 66.20%, view "adjustment" [5][6] - COMEX Gold: daily signal 74.78%, MA5 38.96%, view "bullish" [5][6] - IPE Brent Oil: daily signal 60.69%, MA5 49.96%, view "neutral" [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in precious metal prices, with gold and silver experiencing notable drops in both spot and futures markets [2][3] - Spot gold prices fell by 2.82%, while spot silver prices decreased by over 3%, reflecting a broader trend in the precious metals market [2] - COMEX gold and silver also saw declines, with gold dropping over 3% and silver nearly 5%, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) reported a decrease in gold prices, with the opening price at 1081.26, down by 2.91% from the previous close [1] - The highest price recorded for gold was 1089.00, while the lowest was 1078.86, showing volatility within the trading session [1] - For silver, the opening price was 19102, down by 4.78%, with a trading range between a high of 19450 and a low of 18850, indicating significant fluctuations [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, geopolitical games and oil price changes may continue to affect precious metal prices, with the trend likely to remain range - bound. The focus should be on Middle - East geopolitical developments, oil price trends, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week. The "oil price increase + rising inflation expectations + weakening rate - cut expectations" trading narrative may be gradually digested by the market. Given high global geopolitical uncertainty, the room for a significant decline in precious metal prices is relatively limited. In the long - term, with the probability of Fed rate cuts this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainty, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the center of precious metal prices still has room to rise. Long - term strategies can consider gradually allocating long positions on dips recently [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On March 17, 2026, London gold spot was at $5011.82/ounce, London silver spot at $80.73/ounce, COMEX gold at $5015.80/ounce, COMEX silver at $80.89/ounce, AU2604 at 1116.20 yuan/gram, AG2604 at 20371.00 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) at 1114.70 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) at 20238.00 yuan/kg. Compared with March 16, the price of London silver spot rose 0.7%, COMEX silver rose 0.8%, AU2604 fell 0.2%, and AU (T + D) fell 0.2% [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On March 17, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 1.5 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 133 yuan/kg, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 3.51 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 10 yuan/kg, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 54.79, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 62.01. Compared with March 16, the gold TD - SHFE active spread rose 11.9%, the silver TD - SHFE active spread fell 16.9%, the gold internal - external spread fell 11.5%, and the silver internal - external spread fell 90.0% [3] 2. Position Data - As of March 16, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1070.71 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15355.94899 tons. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 215445 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 52313 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions were 163132 contracts. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 33306 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 8728 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions were 24578 contracts. Compared with March 13, the gold ETF - SPDR fell 0.08%, the silver ETF - SLV fell 0.67%, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold rose 0.79%, and the non - commercial short positions of COMEX gold fell 2.41% [3] 3. Inventory Data - On March 17, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 105315.00 kg, and SHFE silver inventory was 353763.00 kg. On March 16, COMEX gold inventory was 32396398 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 339582263 troy ounces. Compared with March 16, SHFE gold inventory fell 0.10%, and SHFE silver inventory rose 6.97%. Compared with March 13, COMEX gold inventory fell 0.48%, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.63% [3] 4. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - On March 17, 2026, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 6.90. On March 16, the US dollar index was 99.80, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.68%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, the VIX was 23.51, the S&P 500 was 6699.38, and NYMEX crude oil was 94.22. Compared with March 16, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate fell 0.14%. Compared with March 13, the US dollar index fell 0.70%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.34%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.17%, the VIX fell 13.53%, the S&P 500 rose 1.01%, and NYMEX crude oil fell 5.13% [3] 5. Market Review - On March 17, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.79% to 1116.2 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 1.19% to 20308 yuan/kg [3] 6. Impact Analysis - The US - Iran geopolitical conflict shows no sign of easing. High oil prices increase inflation risks and weaken the Fed's rate - cut expectations, which is negative for precious metal prices. However, as ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz and US officials soothe the market, the rise in oil prices has slowed, weakening inflation concerns, the US dollar index has fallen, and the decline in precious metal prices has slowed, turning into a volatile trend [4]

当地时间3月16日14时43分，伦敦金属交易所（LME）主要电子交易平台LME Select突发技术故 障，导致包括铝、铜、镍、铅、锡、锌在内的所有金属合约电子盘交易全面暂停。 交易所随后确认，此次中断源于 主电子撮合引擎出现故障 ，电子交易进入技术性停盘状态。办公室 间市场（Inter-office Market）在此期间保持正常运营。 LME公告表示，由于故障无法在伦敦时间16时至17时的收盘定价窗口前修复，交易所启动了"备用定 价瀑布机制"（backup pricing waterfall approach），参考电子平台最新成交价格及市场买卖报价 完成当日收盘价计算。 据公告，电子交易于收盘流程结束后， 通过备用撮合引擎重新启动 ，交易于 当地时间17时30分起 持续至19时收盘。恢复交易后，市场价格未出现明显异常波动，铜价上涨0.9%，铝价下跌1.2%，整 2026.03. 17 本文字数：1052，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 在金属价格剧烈波动、市场处于流动性敏感时刻，伦敦金属交易所（LME）周一再出技术故障，所 有合约电子盘交易暂停超过两小时。 这是继今年1月30日电子交易开盘 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on 3-year AAA medium-short bonds, 2-year government bonds, COMEX gold, and IPE crude oil [3][6] - Adjustments are suggested for 30-year government bonds, Hang Seng Technology Index, Sci-Tech 50 Index, and CSI 2000 Index [3][6] - The report indicates a neutral stance on 10-year government bonds, CSI Dividend Total Return Index, and Wande All A Index [3][6] Core Insights - The original signal for 30-year government bonds is 62.58%, with a 5-day moving average (MA5) of 66.26%, leading to an adjustment recommendation [3][6] - The original signal for 3-year AAA medium-short bonds is 16.06%, with an MA5 of 31.40%, changing from a neutral to a bullish outlook [3][6] - The original signal for 10-year government bonds is 64.12%, with an MA5 of 49.35%, maintaining a neutral stance [3][6] - The original signal for 2-year government bonds is 29.05%, with an MA5 of 30.52%, indicating a bullish outlook [3][6] - The original signal for Wande All A Index is 73.94%, with an MA5 of 74.91%, leading to an adjustment recommendation [3][6] - The original signal for CSI Dividend Total Return Index is 70.45%, with an MA5 of 46.67%, changing from bullish to neutral [3][6] - The original signal for Hang Seng Technology Index is 58.13%, with an MA5 of 53.25%, maintaining a neutral stance [3][6] - The original signal for Sci-Tech 50 Index is 75.95%, with an MA5 of 69.47%, leading to an adjustment recommendation [3][6] - The original signal for Wande Micro Index is 18.67%, with an MA5 of 16.99%, indicating a bullish outlook [3][6] - The original signal for CSI 2000 Index is 43.82%, with an MA5 of 60.99%, leading to an adjustment recommendation [3][6] - The original signal for COMEX gold is 28.71%, with an MA5 of 25.89%, indicating a bullish outlook [3][6] - The original signal for IPE crude oil is 62.79%, with an MA5 of 47.48%, changing from bullish to neutral [3][6]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Timing Signal Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates the probability of short-term upward movement in bond yields or stock indices based on historical data and statistical patterns[6][7] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model outputs a percentage representing the probability of upward movement in bond yields or stock indices at the end of the day - Multi-day moving averages (e.g., MA5) are calculated to smooth the signal - Thresholds are set for decision-making: - For bond yields: >60% indicates bearish, <40% indicates bullish, and 40%-60% indicates neutral - For stock indices: >60% indicates bullish, <40% indicates bearish, and 40%-60% indicates neutral - The model's output is updated daily, and the moving average is recalculated to adjust the signal[6][7] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a structured framework for short-term market timing, but its effectiveness depends on the stability of historical patterns and data quality[6][7] --- Model Backtesting Results Timing Signal Model - **30-Year Treasury Bond**: - Original Signal: 62.58% - MA5: 66.26% - Model View: Adjustment - Signal Duration: 3 trading days[6][7] - **3-Year AAA Medium-Term Note**: - Original Signal: 16.06% - MA5: 31.40% - Model View: Bullish - Signal Duration: 1 trading day[6][7] - **10-Year Treasury Bond**: - Original Signal: 64.12% - MA5: 49.35% - Model View: Neutral - Signal Duration: 3 trading days[6][7] - **2-Year Treasury Bond**: - Original Signal: 29.05% - MA5: 30.52% - Model View: Bullish - Signal Duration: Over 10 trading days[6][7] - **Wind All A Index**: - Original Signal: 73.94% - MA5: 74.91% - Model View: Adjustment - Signal Duration: 3 trading days[6][7] - **China Dividend Total Return Index**: - Original Signal: 70.45% - MA5: 46.67% - Model View: Neutral - Signal Duration: 1 trading day[6][7] - **Hang Seng Technology Index**: - Original Signal: 58.13% - MA5: 53.25% - Model View: Neutral - Signal Duration: 4 trading days[6][7] - **STAR 50 Index**: - Original Signal: 75.95% - MA5: 69.47% - Model View: Adjustment - Signal Duration: Over 10 trading days[6][7] - **Wind Microcap Index**: - Original Signal: 18.67% - MA5: 16.99% - Model View: Bullish - Signal Duration: 4 trading days[6][7] - **CNI 2000 Index**: - Original Signal: 43.82% - MA5: 60.99% - Model View: Adjustment - Signal Duration: 2 trading days[6][7] - **COMEX Gold**: - Original Signal: 28.71% - MA5: 25.89% - Model View: Bullish - Signal Duration: Over 10 trading days[6][7] - **IPE Brent Crude Oil**: - Original Signal: 62.79% - MA5: 47.48% - Model View: Neutral - Signal Duration: 1 trading day[6][7]