1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - **Oscillating**: Oils and fats, protein meal, corn, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, sugar, pulp, double - gum paper, logs - **Oscillating weakly**: Live pigs - **Oscillating strongly**: Cotton - **Oscillating strongly in the short - term**: Synthetic rubber 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It provides short - term, medium - term, and long - term outlooks for each product and offers corresponding investment strategies based on the analysis [1][5][7][9][10]. 3. Summary by Product Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Oils and fats oscillate and rebound. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East lead to high - level oscillation of oil prices. The US biodiesel policy and the planting area report from the US Department of Agriculture are to be released. In the domestic market, the shutdown of oil mills reduces soybean oil inventory, while demand is weak. For palm oil, production reduction and export growth in Malaysia boost market sentiment, but high prices and the Middle East conflict may suppress demand. For rapeseed oil, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory has decreased weekly [5]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying at phased lows [6]. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot market has weak supply and demand, and the double - meal disk oscillates. - **Logic**: Internationally, the expected Chinese policy - based procurement and the upcoming release of the US EPA's biodiesel quota boost the US soybean futures price. The expected increase in the US soybean planting area and high inventory may limit the upward space. Domestically, the soybean meal futures price rises due to the cost - side drive of the US soybean price. The spot market has a game between oil mills and feed mills [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Rapeseed meal generally follows soybean meal but is weaker [7]. Corn - **Viewpoint**: Corn continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The temperature rise accelerates the supply of damp grain, and the increased supply of old wheat may put pressure on the market. However, the supply pressure is not significant, and the downstream demand is stable. The inventory of grain - using enterprises has stopped decreasing and increased marginally [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Pay attention to the callback pressure caused by the increase in damp grain supply and the expected release of brown rice. In the medium - term, corn is expected to be bullish [9]. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the price continues to decline. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply increases, and the demand is weak. In the medium - term, the high inventory of sows in 2025 leads to a large number of piglet births in 2026, resulting in high pressure on hog slaughter. In the long - term, the sow inventory has decreased since the second half of 2025, but the increase in sow productivity may offset the impact. The current process of capacity reduction is not smooth [1][10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. In the first half of the year, it is recommended to focus on the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices. It is expected that the pig price will bottom out and recover in the third quarter and rise moderately in the fourth quarter [2][10]. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The market atmosphere is warm, and the disk continues to rebound. - **Logic**: The non - escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the high - level operation of synthetic rubber drive the rebound of natural rubber. The supply in overseas producing areas may be affected by the Middle East conflict, and the downstream tire orders to the Middle East are affected. Seasonally, there is an adjustment demand [11][12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. If there is no further fermentation of events, wait for the opportunity to buy on dips [12]. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The disk breaks through the 18,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: The tight supply of butadiene is strengthened. The disruption of the supply of key raw materials such as naphtha due to the Middle East conflict leads to the reduction of butadiene supply. Even if the cost of raw materials is higher than that of downstream products, the price is still likely to rise as long as the geopolitical situation is tense [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term. If the oil price continues to rise, the disk will remain strong [13][14]. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are good, and there is strong support below. - **Logic**: The domestic cotton processing and inspection work is completed, the commercial inventory has decreased, and the downstream demand in the peak season is good. In the long - term, the expected reduction of the planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 provides an upward drive, but the specific policy details are to be announced [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly. In the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [14]. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The short - term main theme is that the sugar price oscillates with the oil price. - **Logic**: The short - term oil price fluctuation caused by the Middle East conflict leads to the oscillation of the sugar price. In the long - term, if the oil price remains high, it may affect the Brazilian new - season production and tighten the global sugar supply [16][17]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton. There may be an upward drive in the long - term [17]. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The pulp price declined yesterday, and the pressure still exists. - **Logic**: The consumption of broad - leaf pulp is strong, while that of coniferous pulp is weak. The demand in the 4 - 6 month period usually decreases seasonally, and the overseas coniferous pulp inventory is high. However, the cost provides support for the price [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 4950 - 5350 yuan/ton [18]. Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: Weakly oscillating. - **Logic**: The market is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamentals have no obvious changes. The resumption of some maintenance devices increases the industry's operating rate, but the profit of paper mills is poor, and the production increase is limited. In the short - and medium - term, the demand in the peak season and the paper mills' profit - repair demand may support the price, but in the long - term, the loose supply - demand situation limits the price increase [20][21]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 3800 - 4300 yuan/ton in the first half of 2026 [21]. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Strongly oscillating. - **Logic**: The price of logs is mainly driven by cost and supply contraction. The high oil price increases the shipping cost, and the New Zealand suppliers reduce production and raise prices. The low inventory and strong demand in the downstream lead to a supply - demand mismatch [22]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly. The price is expected to maintain a range - bound operation, with strong support below and obvious hedging pressure above [22][23].

RU、NR 日报 【银河期货】天然橡胶及 20 号胶每日早盘观察（26-03-27） 天然橡胶及 20 号胶：轮胎边际增产 【市场情况】 RU 天然橡胶相关：RU 主力 05 合约报收 16505 点，上涨+45 点或+0.27%。 截至前日 12 时，销地 WF 报收 16300-16350 元/吨，越南 3L 混合报收 16750- 16750 元/吨，泰国烟片报收 19700-19800 元/吨，产地标二报收 14300-14400 元/ 吨。 NR 20 号胶相关：NR 主力 05 合约报收 13690 点，上涨+55 点或+0.40%；新 加坡 TF 主力 06 合约报收 196.1 点，上涨+0.2 点或+0.10%。截至前日 18 时，烟 片胶船货报收 2520-2550 美元/吨，泰标近港船货报收 2035-2050 美元/吨，泰混 近港船货报收 2035-2050 美元/吨，马标近港船货报收 2025-2040 美元/吨，人民 币混合胶现货报收 15570-15600 元/吨。 BR 丁二烯橡胶相关：BR 主力 05 合约报收 18425 点，上涨+450 点或 +2.50%。截至前日 18 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Rubber raw material prices are firm during the low - production season. As the tapping season begins, supply is expected to increase. Demand is recovering well, but high inventory and rising bonded - area inventory put pressure on prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance On March 26, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,460 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +0.55%. The price center of the natural rubber market remained stable. The intended transaction price of the mainstream 24 - year SCRWF in the Shanghai market was 16,300 - 16,350 yuan/ton, stable compared to the previous trading day. The intended transaction price of the mainstream Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber was 16,750 yuan/ton, also stable compared to the previous trading day [1]. 3.2 Supply From January to February 2026, the cumulative import was 1.1065 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,900 tons, or 1.36%. The import volume in the first two months of 2026 was slightly lower than that in the same period of 2023, ranking second in the same historical period. The international market demand is average, and domestic downstream pre - holiday stocking and arbitrage trading support the high import base. Natural rubber still mainly flows to the Chinese market. Starting from mid - March in the Yunnan production area, the global natural rubber market will enter a new tapping season. High raw material prices stimulate tapping enthusiasm, and the expectation of increased new rubber supply in the future is rising [2]. 3.3 Demand On March 20, 2026, the开工 rate of semi - steel tires in China was 78.25%, higher than the average of the same period over the years, and the开工 rate of all - steel tires was 70.72%, also higher than the average of the same period over the years. The tire production line's开工 rate has recovered, downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and automobile exports have exceeded expectations. There may be follow - up purchase orders, and attention should be paid to the resumption of work and the digestion progress under high prices and high inventory. Due to the high raw material cost, the profit pressure of upstream and downstream enterprises is prominent, especially the losses in the downstream are intensifying. Some enterprises have shifted to purchasing lower - priced natural rubber to replace synthetic rubber, which provides some short - term support for the demand for natural rubber [3]. 3.4 Inventory As of the week of March 20, the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 141,300 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons or 1.29% from the previous period. The inventory of natural rubber in the general trade warehouses in the Qingdao area was 561,600 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons or 1.63% from the previous period [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has returned to the inventory accumulation rhythm, and it is expected that the general trade inventory in Qingdao may continue to accumulate slightly in the short term [2]. - The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly last week. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly. The operating rates are expected to remain high at the end of the quarter, but individual enterprises may adjust production schedules flexibly [2]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,250 - 16,850, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,460 yuan/ton, and that of the 20 - number rubber is 13,635 yuan/ton [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 0 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton [2]. - The difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is - 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber decreased by 5,068 hands to 102,159 hands, and that of the 20 - number rubber decreased by 4,368 hands to 51,030 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 704 to - 30,970, and that of the 20 - number rubber is - 213 [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 125,410 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber are 43,949 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,700 yuan/ton, and that of Vietnamese 3L is 16,300 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 2,005 US dollars/ton, and that of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 2,000 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,520 yuan/ton, and that of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,470 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 18,700 yuan/ton, and that of butadiene BR9000 is 18,500 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 13.6 US dollars/ton, and that of STR20 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased by 2.95 tons, and that of mixed rubber decreased by 10.31 tons to 13.96 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.72%, and that of semi - steel tires is 78.25% [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong decreased by 2.82 days to 41.09 days, and those of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.75 days to 44.59 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires decreased by 458,000 pieces to 813,000 pieces, and that of semi - steel tires decreased by 2.507 million pieces to 3.461 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset decreased by 0.01%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.06% to 19.39% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options decreased by 0.77% to 31.4%, and that of at - the - money put options decreased by 0.77% to 31.41% [2]. Industry News - In February 2026, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 75,000 vehicles, a decrease of nearly 30% from January 2025 and about 8% from the same period last year. The cumulative sales volume from January to February exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [2]. - As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 685,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.18% [2]. - As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2].

BR 日报 【银河期货】丁二烯橡胶每日早盘观察（26-03-26） 【市场情况】 丁二烯橡胶：顺丁橡胶表需减少 BR 丁二烯橡胶相关：BR 主力 05 合约报收 17635 点，下跌-85 点或- 0.48%。截至前日 18 时，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收 17500-17700 元/吨，山东民 营顺丁报收 17000-17300 元/吨，华东市场扬子石化顺丁报收 17600-17700 元/ 吨，华南地区茂名石化顺丁报收 17500-17800 元/吨。山东地区抚顺石化丁苯 1502 报收 17800-17900 元/吨。山东地区丁二烯报收 18100-18200 元/吨。 RU/NR 天然橡胶相关：RU 主力 05 合约报收 16410 点，下跌-20 点或- 0.12%。截至前日 12 时，销地 WF 报收 16300-16350 元/吨，越南 3L 混合报收 16750-16750 元/吨。NR 主力 05 合约报收 13560 点，下跌-5 点或-0.04%；新加 坡 TF 主力完成换月，06 合约报收 195.9 点，上涨+3.4 点或+1.77%。截至前日 18 时，泰标近港船货报收 2030-2 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年03月26日 【原油】 昨夜EIA数据显示美国原油库存大幅累库，远超市场预期。美国方面频频表态称与伊朗谈判富有成 效，此前称通过巴基斯坦向伊朗提出一份包含15项条件的结束冲突方案，涵盖核计划、导弹能力及 地区问题。同时，美国仍不断增派大量部队到中东，其中一支海军陆战队远征部队不久将抵达中 东。伊朗方面始终否认与美进行谈判。中东替代输油管道运力与海峡正常通航的运输量仍有巨大差 距。国际能源署成员国释放战略石油储备仅为应急缓冲，且后续面临回补需求。当前市场消息繁杂 多变,她缘局势仍不明朗,在伊朗军队控制下的霍尔木兹海峡仅有极少数船只通行。短期油价双向 波动风险较大，长期决定油价走势的核心变量仍在于霍尔木兹海峡能否保持畅通。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属延续小幅反弹。美伊针对谈判传闻各执一词，双方所提谈判条件存在极大分歧，美国仍 在向中东增兵。市场情绪围绕美伊战争相关信息随时摇摆，贵金属短期趋势不明朗等待战事进一步 明 朗 。 (铜) 隔夜内外铜价在短期日均线位置震荡，沪铜主力强弱分界在9.65万一线。中东局势主导交易节奏， 不确定性高。国内现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to decline due to refinery load reduction and planned maintenance, while downstream product prices are rising, improving the supply - demand outlook. Short - term price may follow oil prices, and the strategy is to wait and see and reduce the EB05 - BZ05 spread when it is high [1]. - Styrene supply remains stable with a mix of restarts and maintenance. Demand is weak in procurement, but the supply - demand is still tight. Short - term price follows oil prices, and the strategy is the same as for pure benzene [1]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the market will be a game between supply - demand and cost support, with an expected weakening trend. Attention should be paid to the support at around 1150 for SA605 [2]. - Glass has a similar situation of supply - demand and cost support game. The market is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at around 1030 for FG605 [2]. Natural Rubber - As domestic production areas start full - scale tapping, supply pressure will dominate the market. The US - Iran conflict affects tire exports, and rubber prices are expected to face pressure [3]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations, with the main factors being geopolitical support and policy suppression. Short - term focus is on the actual resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and negotiation progress [4]. Methanol - The current market is dominated by reduced imports. High volatility requires caution regarding demand sustainability and policy risks. The 05 contract is expected to see significant de - stocking [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX has a situation of weak supply and demand, and its price is expected to follow oil prices in the short term. The strategy is to wait and see and monitor oil prices [9]. - PTA has limited self - drive, and its absolute price follows the cost side. The strategy is the same as for PX [9]. - Ethylene glycol has upward price momentum in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline after the rise [9]. - Short - fiber has weak self - drive and follows raw material fluctuations. The strategy for the PF contract is to expand the processing margin when it is below 800 [9]. - Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to be tight, and the processing margin of the PR main contract is expected to be strong [9]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda's fundamentals have marginally improved, but the overall supply - demand is still weak. The price may be affected by export expectations and downstream demand [10]. - PVC has a weak supply - demand situation, but the overall market price is likely to rise due to the impact of rising energy prices [10]. Urea - Urea supply remains in a loose pattern, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, with the main contract focusing on the 1830 - 1900 range [11]. LPG - The LPG market shows price declines in futures contracts. Inventory and upstream - downstream开工率 have some changes, but no clear market trend conclusion is given in the report [12]. Polyolefin - Polyolefins are traded based on the logic of "strong cost, reduced supply", with low valuations. However, demand is limited, and long positions can be reduced [13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Most upstream prices such as crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene decreased on March 25 compared to March 24, with varying decline rates. Some spreads also changed, like the pure benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 335.3% [1]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices and related spreads also showed declines, and the EB cash flow (non - integrated) increased by 139.0% [1]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: Cash flows of downstream products like caprolactam and phenol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 6.6%, while styrene inventory increased by 3.6% [1]. - **开工率**: Asian and domestic pure benzene开工率, as well as downstream product开工率, had different degrees of change [1]. Glass - Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot and futures prices had small changes, and some basis and spreads also changed [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash production and float glass melting volume had slight changes, and the supply - demand situation was generally weak [2]. - **Inventory**: Glass and soda ash factory inventories decreased, and glass factories' soda ash inventory days increased [2]. - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate data showed different trends, with some indicators improving and some still negative [2]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices of natural rubber and related spreads changed, with some prices increasing and some decreasing [3]. - **月间价差**: 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 spreads of natural rubber contracts had varying degrees of change [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in some countries,开工率 of tire enterprises, and import and export data of tires and natural rubber had changes [3]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory increased, and factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased [3]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil prices such as Brent, WTI, and SC decreased on March 25 compared to March 24, and various spreads also changed [4]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Refined oil prices and spreads decreased, with significant decline rates in some products [4]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of refined oil products decreased, with some products having a 100% decline [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices, basis, and spreads changed, with some prices decreasing and some spreads increasing [7]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased [7]. - **开工率**: Upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol had different degrees of change, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Upstream prices such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX decreased, and related spreads also changed [9]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Downstream polyester product prices and cash flows had different degrees of change, with some prices decreasing and some cash flows increasing [9]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: PX prices and spreads decreased, and some spreads had significant decline rates [9]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA prices and spreads decreased, and the basis and processing margin also changed [9]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG prices and spreads decreased, and the inventory and to - port expectations also changed [9]. - **开工率**:开工率 of various products in the polyester industry chain had different degrees of change [9]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices had changes, and some spreads and basis also changed [10]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda increased [10]. - **Supply**:开工率 of caustic soda and PVC decreased, and the profit of PVC production also changed [10]. - **Demand**:开工率 of downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC had different degrees of change [10]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventories of caustic soda and PVC decreased [10]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Urea futures prices and spreads changed, with some prices decreasing and some spreads increasing [11]. - **主力持仓**: The main positions of urea trading decreased [11]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Upstream raw material prices such as coal and synthetic ammonia had small changes [11]. - **Spot Prices**: Urea spot prices in different regions had small changes [11]. - **价差**: Regional, cross - border, and basis spreads of urea had different degrees of change [11]. - **Downstream Products**: Prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizer had different degrees of change [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Urea daily production,开工率, and inventory had changes, with supply being loose and demand being weak [11]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: LPG futures prices decreased, and some spreads and basis also changed [12]. - **外盘价格**: LPG outer - market prices decreased, with different decline rates for different contracts [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery and port inventories increased, and the inventory ratio also changed [12]. - **开工率**: Upstream and downstream开工率 of LPG had different degrees of change [12]. Polyolefin - **Prices and Spreads**: LLDPE and PP futures prices decreased, and some spreads and basis also changed [13]. - **Non - standard Prices**: Non - standard prices of PE and PP decreased, with different decline rates [13]. - **开工率**: PE and PP装置开工率 and downstream加权开工率 had different degrees of change [13]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories had different degrees of change [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term trends of various commodities are predicted based on supply and demand, inventory, and external factors such as geopolitical situations [1][2][4] - The market sentiment and price trends of different commodities are affected by factors like production capacity utilization, inventory changes, and downstream demand [5][6][8] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Coal and Coke - For coking coal, last week's supply increased slightly, downstream coke enterprises' procurement was for rigid demand, and the market expected short - term coking coal and coke to fluctuate strongly [1] Methanol - Domestic methanol has a high - level start, downstream demand has a phased increase, and the port inventory is decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Although the overall iron ore supply is still relatively loose, the shipping and arrival rhythm is affected. The demand for hot metal has room for recovery. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4] Rebar - The domestic steel demand recovers slowly, the cost support is unstable, and the short - term steel price may have a weak and narrow adjustment [4] Livestock - The national pig price continues to decline, the supply is loose in the short term, and the price is mainly in the bottom - range shock [5] Edible Oils - Malaysian palm oil exports are strong in March, and the price has strong support below. It is expected to fluctuate weakly at a high level in the short term [6] Feed - The domestic oil mill's bean meal inventory is rising, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly at a high level [6] Chemicals - The domestic soda ash market is stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7][8] Plastics - LLDPE has more planned shutdown and maintenance devices, and the supply pressure is expected to be relieved. It is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly in the short term [8] Bonds - The capital market has a slight upward trend, which is negative for the bond market. The bond market has strong volatility [9] Precious Metals - Gold's short - term upward momentum is insufficient, and it may still fluctuate at a high level in the medium term [9] - Platinum's further downward momentum may be limited, and it may still fluctuate at a high level in the medium term [10] Non - Ferrous Metals - Guinea's policy of reducing bauxite exports may push up the cost of domestic alumina enterprises. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10][11] - The supply cost of cast aluminum alloy is well - supported, and the demand is recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11] Energy - The US commercial crude oil inventory is at a high level, and the war situation affects the oil price. The short - term operation should be cautious [12] Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia's plan to levy export taxes on nickel may push up the export cost. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate strongly [13] Natural Rubber - The natural rubber social inventory shows signs of destocking, and the short - term fundamentals are weak [14][15] PTA - The downstream polyester sales are not good, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in March. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core Views - **PTA**: Near - term TA has a mix of production cuts and restarts, with开工 rate rising, polyester's load - increasing rate slowing, inventory accumulating, basis weakening, and spot processing fees compressing. PX domestic unit's load - reduction slows, overseas still has production cuts. In the future, raw material PX's load - reduction slows, but further production cuts are likely due to logistics blockade. TA's own processing fee is low. Although polyester's load - increasing slows and may cut production, it can't offset supply reduction, so it's expected to maintain inventory drawdown. Short - term: wait - and - see; long - term: long position. Pay attention to terminal feedback [2]. - **MEG**: Near - term domestic oil - based production's load - reduction slows, coal - based has partial maintenance,开工 rate drops, port inventory continues to decline, and basis strengthens. In the future, although domestic and overseas load - reduction slows, there are concerns about Saudi device operation stability, and the arrival volume is expected to decline rapidly. Short - term inventory drawdown speeds up, and the long - term balance sheet is highly uncertain. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [8]. - **Polyester Short Fiber**: Near - term short - fiber has a mix of maintenance and restarts,开工 rate rises to 86.1%, sales - to - production ratio weakens, inventory accumulates, and spot processing fees improve. Demand side has improved efficiency. In the future, raw material price increase makes terminals more cautious, the substitution effect of recycled materials is obvious, and short - fiber's production may be restricted by raw material supply. Current valuation is relatively neutral under the situation of weak supply and demand [8]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber**: The current strategy is to wait and see, and the main contradiction is not provided [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Spread Data**: From March 19th to March 25th, crude oil price was stable at 112.2 (except March 19th, 108.7), PX CFR price was 1207 (except March 19th, 1264), PTA inner - market spot price dropped from 6885 to 6470, polyester POY 150D/48F price changed slightly. Naphtha cracking spread, PX processing spread, and PTA processing spread remained relatively stable, while polyester gross profit increased by 311. PTA balance load and PTA load were stable at 77.7 and 80.8 respectively, and the number of warehouse receipts + valid forecasts increased by 2550. TA basis increased by 10, and the sales - to - production ratio decreased by 0.05 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Yizheng's 3 million - ton device restarted, and Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 million - ton device restarted [2]. MEG - **Price and Profit Data**: From March 19th to March 25th, Northeast Asia ethylene price was stable at 1450 (except March 19th, 1350; March 20th, 1425), MEG outer - market price dropped from 625 to 595, MEG inner - market price dropped from 5143 to 4946. MEG coal - based profit dropped from 1053 to 849, and MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) was stable at - 2680. MEG total load, coal - based MEG load, and non - coal - based load were stable, and MEG port inventory remained at 84.4 [8]. - **Device Changes**: Xinjiang Zhongkun's 600,000 - ton single - line device was under maintenance [8]. Polyester Short Fiber - **Price and Profit Data**: From March 19th to March 25th, 1.4D cotton - type short - fiber price dropped from 8380 to 8060, low - melting - point short - fiber price dropped from 9400 to 9350. Short - fiber profit increased by 90, and pure - polyester yarn profit increased by 90. The difference between cotton and polyester short - fiber increased by 410, and the difference between viscose and polyester short - fiber increased by 390 [8]. - **Device Changes**: Not provided Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Price Data**: From March 19th to March 25th, US - dollar Thai standard spot price increased from 1940 to 2000, US - dollar Thai mixed spot price increased from 1940 to 2015, RMB mixed rubber price increased from 15130 to 15530. RU main contract price increased from 16090 to 16430, and NR main contract price increased from 12925 to 13565 [8]. - **Spread and Other Data**: The difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract, the difference between US - dollar Thai standard and NR main contract, and the difference between RU05 and RU09 changed slightly. The difference between glue and cup - lump, the difference between whole - latex and mixed rubber, and the difference between 3L and mixed rubber also had certain changes [8]. Styrene and Related Products - **Price Data**: From March 19th to March 25th, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) price increased from 1350 to 1450, pure benzene (CFR China) price increased from 1093 to 1172, pure benzene (East China) price decreased from 8350 to 8075. Styrene (CFR China) price decreased from 1320 to 1310, and styrene (Jiangsu) price decreased from 10625 to 10475 [11]. - **Profit Data**: PS (East China transparent benzene), ABS (0215A), and other products' domestic profits had certain fluctuations, and the Asian spread and pure benzene - naphtha spread also changed [11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it already includes the current geopolitical premium, so take profit at high prices and do long on the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, short at high prices considering the high - price and unfavorable time for demand, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. - For rubber, trade flexibly according to the short - term market, set stop - losses, and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, it is expected to rise in the short - term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of large short - term increases [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high non - integrated profit, wide supply, and large geopolitical influence on the market [19]. - For polyethylene, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [22]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [25]. - For PX, it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of large short - term increases [27]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN is expected to rise significantly [30]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the oil - chemical profit is at a low level, but be cautious of large short - term increases [33]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 28.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 3.72%, at 723.90 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 300.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.45%, at 4348.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 209.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.89%, at 5159.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Start a bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by (97.00) yuan/ton, reported at 3089 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 11 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: Take profit at high prices and do long on the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan 0 yuan/ton, Hebei 0 yuan/ton, Hubei 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi 0 yuan/ton, and Northeast 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 3 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 1 yuan/ton, reported at 1863 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: Short at high prices, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Crude oil declined while RU rebounded. The overall market changes rapidly. Bulls believe in limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, improved demand in China, and rubber substitution. Bears believe in a marginal decline in macro - expectations, increased supply, and a seasonal demand slump. As of March 19, 2026, the full - steel tire production load of Shandong tire enterprises was 69.22%, up 0.58 percentage points from last week and 0.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire production load of domestic tire enterprises was 77.17%, up 0.48 percentage points from last week and down 5.57 percentage points from the same period last year. Middle - East export orders were still on hold. As of March 15, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.49 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56 million tons, a decline of 1.13%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 92.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.34%. The total inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 44.39 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.94 million tons to 69.21 million tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15350 (+100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1970 (+30) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1985 (+45) US dollars, Shandong butadiene was 18000 (+100) yuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 18300 (+500) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 16800 (+500) yuan. The Asian butadiene production rate decreased, and supply decreased, with an expected strong butadiene market [9][10][11]. - **Strategy**: Trade flexibly according to the short - term market, set stop - losses, and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 150 yuan, reported at 5703 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5500 (-360) yuan/ton, the basis was 203 (-170) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 98 (-11) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2750 (+15) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke medium - sized material was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 1450 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 728 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC production rate was 80.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 84.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the ethylene method was 69.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%. The overall downstream production rate was 41.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%. The in - factory inventory was 36.5 million tons (-1.2), and the social inventory was 137.1 million tons (-3.6) [14]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to rise in the short - term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of large short - term increases [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 8245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8313 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 108 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 10105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 137 yuan/ton; the basis was 95 yuan/ton, a weakening of 63 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was - 47.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton. The non - integrated EB device profit was - 212.55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 126.8 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 70.46%, a decrease of 1.33%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16.25 million tons, an increase of 0.60 million tons. The weighted production rate of the three S products was 40.93%, an increase of 0.60%. The PS production rate was 51.60%, a decrease of 0.10%; the EPS production rate was 61.00%, an increase of 3.22%; the ABS production rate was 67.10%, a decrease of 0.30% [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high non - integrated profit, wide supply, and large geopolitical influence on the market [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 203 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton. The basis was - 215 yuan/ton, a weakening of 147 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 80.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 56.83 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.48 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 million tons. The downstream average production rate was 35%, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 147 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 35 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: Short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 139 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan/ton. The basis was 0 yuan/ton, a weakening of 136 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 71.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 59.62 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.14 million tons, the trader inventory was 19.36 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.244 million tons, and the port inventory was 7.19 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 million tons. The downstream average production rate was 46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%. The LL - PP spread was - 260 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 64 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 383 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 49 yuan/ton [24]. - **Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 206 yuan, reported at 9502 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 22 yuan (-18). The PX load in China was 84.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the Asian load was 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. Some devices had issues such as postponed restart and shutdown. The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first and middle ten - days of March were 31.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8 million tons. The inventory at the end of February was 480 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16 million tons. The PXN was 139 US dollars (+26), the South Korean PX - MX was 91 US dollars (+4), and the naphtha cracking spread was 385 US dollars (-100) [26]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of large short - term increases [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 102 yuan, reported at 6592 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 108 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The social inventory on March 6 was 285.4 million tons. The on - disk processing fee increased by 33 yuan to 359 yuan [29]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN is expected to rise significantly [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 83 yuan, reported at 5036 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 96 yuan (+14). The ethylene glycol production rate was 66.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; among them, the syngas - based production rate was 72.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%; the ethylene - based production rate was 63.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. Some devices had load adjustments. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The import arrival forecast was 11.7 million tons, and the East China departure was 0.8 million tons on March 24. The port inventory was 103.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.8 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 2680 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 2680 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1310 yuan. The cost of ethylene rose to 1450 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder rebounded to 640 yuan [32]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the oil - chemical profit is at a low level, but be cautious of large short - term increases [33].