支撑评级的要点 同程旅行：下沉市场的OTA 龙头。公司由同程网和艺龙合并而来，是中国领先的一站式旅游服务平 台，目前已成功跻身OTA 行业前三。核心业务为在线旅游平台，为用户提供包括交通、住宿预订及各 种配套增值旅游产品及服务。疫后公司业绩迅速反弹并屡创新高，2024 年公司实现营收173.4 亿元，同 比+45.8%；经调整净利润 27.9 亿元，同比+26.7%。 OTA 行业：受益于旅游市场高景气度，博弈加剧冲击有限。1）规模： 受益于文旅行业高景气度，24 年在线旅游市场规模重回万亿。低线城市当前渗透率低，且旅游花费增 速高，未来为重要增量市场。交通在线预订GMV 占比较高，渗透率超8 成；住宿在线预订渗透率仍处 爬升阶段。 机构：中银证券 研究员：李小民/宋环翔 同程旅行作为国内下沉市场的OTA 龙头企业，有望享受大众旅游的时代红利，背靠腾讯和携程两大股 东，自身流量和供给资源优势显著。首次覆盖，给予买入评级。 2）格局：当前市场为一超多强，携程占据半壁江山，同程，美团，飞猪等平台错位竞争，各立山头。 内容、电商平台加速入局，流量端优势显著，但供应链资源仍显不足，对格局冲击有限。3）议价能 力：交通 ...

Core Points - The agreement between China and Malaysia on mutual visa exemption for holders of ordinary and official passports will take effect on July 17, 2025, marking a new phase in bilateral relations and enhancing people-to-people exchanges and economic cooperation [3] - The agreement allows for visa-free entry for Chinese and Malaysian passport holders for stays not exceeding 30 days, with a cumulative stay of 90 days within 180 days, for various purposes including tourism and business [3] - As of July 2023, China has established mutual visa exemption agreements with Singapore, Thailand, and Brunei among the ten ASEAN countries, with 47 countries benefiting from unilateral visa exemption policies to China [4] Industry Insights - Malaysia has emerged as a top travel destination for Chinese tourists this summer, with hotel bookings increasing by 43% year-on-year [4] - Kuala Lumpur, Tawau, and Langkawi are the most popular cities for Chinese travelers, with Kuala Lumpur being the top city for outbound travel from China according to recent data [4] - In the first four months of 2023, 1.4 million Chinese tourists visited Malaysia, a 37.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with projections suggesting that the total number of Chinese tourists to Malaysia could reach 5 million this year [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong growth potential of Tongcheng Travel, a leading OTA in China's lower-tier markets, benefiting from the tourism boom and support from major shareholders Tencent and Ctrip [3][6][8] - In 2024, Tongcheng Travel is projected to achieve revenue of CNY 17.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%, and an adjusted net profit of CNY 2.79 billion, up 26.7% year-on-year [6] Company Overview - Tongcheng Travel is formed from the merger of Tongcheng and eLong, positioning itself as a top three player in the OTA industry, providing comprehensive travel services including transportation and accommodation bookings [6][8] - The company has a significant user base from non-first-tier cities, allowing it to capitalize on the growth in lower-tier markets [8] Industry Analysis - The online travel market is expected to exceed CNY 1 trillion in 2024, driven by high demand in the cultural tourism sector and low penetration rates in lower-tier cities [7] - The current market structure is characterized by a dominant player (Ctrip) and several strong competitors (Tongcheng, Meituan, Feizhu), with a focus on differentiated competition [7] - The bargaining power in the transportation sector is low due to high supplier concentration, while the accommodation sector has a higher bargaining power with lower supplier concentration [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with an initial coverage date of July 8, 2025 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic OTA market, particularly benefiting from the growth in lower-tier markets and the overall tourism boom. It is backed by major shareholders Tencent and Trip.com, which provide significant advantages in customer acquisition and supply chain resources [4][6][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, formed from the merger of Tongcheng and eLong, is a top-tier one-stop travel service platform in China, successfully ranking among the top three in the OTA industry [17]. Shareholding Structure - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with major shareholders Tencent and Trip.com holding 24.07% and 20.46% respectively, facilitating deep collaboration in business operations [18][21]. Business Breakdown - The core OTA business includes transportation and accommodation bookings, contributing approximately 50% and 30% of revenue respectively. The company is expanding into hotel management and vacation services, enhancing its competitive edge [23]. Financial Performance - The company has shown strong recovery post-pandemic, with revenues of RMB 11.896 billion in 2023 and projected growth to RMB 19.624 billion by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 80.7% and 45.8% respectively [8][31]. Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 27.07 billion in 2025 [6]. OTA Industry Insights - The online travel market in China is projected to exceed RMB 1 trillion in 2024, with a significant increase in online transaction rates, indicating a robust recovery and growth potential in the sector [39][46]. Competitive Landscape - The OTA market is characterized by a high concentration of major players, with Trip.com leading the market share. The competitive dynamics are stable, with companies leveraging unique strengths to capture different market segments [49][52]. Pricing Power - The pricing power of the company is influenced by the concentration of upstream resources, particularly in transportation and accommodation sectors, which affects commission rates and overall profitability [56][59].

以下文章来源于智谷趋势Trend ，作者澜瑟 布语 智谷趋势Trend . 新中产的首席财富顾问 来 源丨智谷趋势（ID： zgtrend ） 作者丨澜瑟 布语 编辑丨王战新 又一个泡沫破了！ 被寄予厚望的旅游，突然成了2025年最难做的生意。 近日，青海省旅游投资集团股份有限公司（以下简称"青海旅投"）及下属13家公司集体破产清算，给整个旅游圈带来不小的震撼。 这家曾喊出"三年投融资百亿，五年上市"的省级国资文旅平台，干光4.8亿注册资本，整个过程充满荒诞：高管团灭、2371万投给无产权营地、收购资不抵 债公司倒贴3000万…… 云南、张家界、桂林、西安、大连、西藏等地的文旅公司，个个都处于困顿期。 截至目前，有44家上市公司披露了一季度财报，其中有25家营收负增长， 占整体的56.8%。 | 排名 | 证券代码 | 公司名称 | 营收(单位/亿元) | 归母净利润(单位/亿元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601888.SH | 中国中免 | 167.46 | 19.38 | | 2 | 600655.SH | 豫园股份 | 87.82 | 0.52 | ...

2025年6月4日 证券研究报告 | 6月社服行业投资策略： 板块整体平稳，把握强平台与强品牌的结构性机会 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 社会服务 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） | 证券分析师：曾光 | 证券分析师：张鲁 | 证券分析师：杨玉莹 | | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-82150809 | 010-88005377 | 0755-81982942 | | zengguang@guosen.com | zhanglu5@guosen.com. | yangyuying@guosen.co | | .cn | cn | m.cn | | S0980511040003 | S0980521120002 | S0980524070006 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ◼ 行情回顾：5月A股社服跑输基准3.6pct，港美股部分出行链龙头财报发布后行情创新高。5月A股社服板块跑输基准3.6pct，A股社服整体表 现震荡；港美股出行链公司结构性亮点突出，其中年初至今同程旅行+21.7%、亚朵+16.4%、华住集团-S+ ...

证券研究报告 携程集团 (TCOM US/9961 HK) 1Q25 业绩：看好海外长期成长 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 20 日│美国/中国香港 | 互联网 | 盈利预测与估值 我们预测公司 25-27 年收入分别为 613/712/823 亿美元（基本不变），调整后 归母净利润分别 193/225/260 亿美元（25 年下调 2%，26、27 年不变），其中 25 年主要为小幅调高了联营企业亏损等非经营项目，在经营层面我们认为仍随 着营销投放优化向好。因旅游服务消费的需求韧性，25 年可比公司 VA 的 PE 估值较前值 18.3 倍 PE 抬升至 21.3 倍，考虑到公司虽在国内 OTA 板块的龙头 地位稳固，但短期内因增加国际业务投入利润端有小幅影响，因此在行业平均 PE 基础上给予一定折价，且后续海外投入仍有不确定性，小幅增加折价幅度， 以 25 年 19 倍（前值 18 倍）PE 给予携程美股目标价 78.0 美元（前值：75.5 美元）；港股目标价 559.4 港币（前值：563.7 港币）。 风 ...

携程一季度调整后每份ADS收益5.96元人民币。一季度营收138亿元人民币，同比增长16%。 ...

"五一"假期虽已落幕，记者近日发现，社交平台上关于酒店民宿"毁约"的投诉却持续发酵。 有网民反映，在抵达了目的地后突遭酒店取消订单、临时涨价，甚至被要求补缴数倍差价，令假期体验 大打折扣，这一现象引发广泛讨论。 深圳一市民在社交媒体上讲诉了他的经历：他在三月份就预订了五一假期出行的酒店，结果当天抵达当 地后，才被酒店告知无法办理入住，然而如果此时再订酒店，花费将上涨数倍。最后，该网友通过旅游 平台客服预订了一个周边的其他酒店才得以继续假期行程。"商家就算赔款后，还可再将房间高价卖出 赚钱，所以他们也不害怕，但却让我们消费者承担了这种不确定风险。"该市民表示。 类似的经历在社交平台上不在少数，有游客被商家以"设备升级"原因要求退订、也有被加私人联系方式 购买更低价为由诱导取消订单的。这些行为背后，暴露出部分商家利用假期供需失衡牟取暴利的投机心 态。 面对商家违规操作，记者了解到，有不少主流旅游平台已经开始通过服务保障为消费者托底。以携程为 例，若发生商家确认订单后推翻或到店无房的情况，平台将优先协调原酒店升级房型或帮助客人预订附 近同等酒店，并承担由此产生的差价。同时，平台对频繁违约的商家采取警告、流量降权等处 ...

出境游方面，平台上，今年"五一"假期，中国出境游预订酒店遍布全球1837个城市，较去年"五一"假期 增加432个城市。从国际机票预订情况看，5小时内飞行圈国家最受欢迎，免签国家人气高。从国际酒店 预订量看，中国游客在越南、西班牙等地酒店预订量在去年"五一"假期高基数的基础上增长一倍。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 从使用非中国护照预订中国机票的预订量看，平台上，北京、上海、广州、深圳、杭州稳居"五一"假期 入境游前五，成都、厦门、南京、重庆、海口等地入境机票数量和去年"五一"假期相比增一倍。从入境 游国别看，美国、韩国、日本旅客占比最高。澳大利亚旅客入境中国的机票预订量同比增幅最高，增幅 达1.5倍；越南、加拿大旅客同比增幅也超过八成。 除前述热门城市外，今年"五一"假期，珠海外籍旅客酒店预订量和去年"五一"假期相比增七成，青岛增 长六成，武汉增长五成。苏州、湖州、佛山等进入今年"五一"假期中国入境游前二十名城市。 编辑：张嘉怡 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 旅游平台："五一"假期中国多地入境游火热 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新社北京5月5日电 (记者 刘亮)中国在线旅游平台去哪儿5日发布的分析指出 ...