证券研究报告 2026年03月02日 机械设备 太空光伏行业深度3： 从国内卫星制造产业链&价值链拆解展开 评级：推荐(维持) 张钰莹(证券分析师) S0350524100004 zhangyy03@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -19% -6% 8% 22% 35% 49% 2025/02/28 机械设备 沪深300 《机械行业专题报告：日系品牌摩托车系列2川崎：摩托车FY2023全球市占 率≈1%（推荐）*机械设备*张钰莹》——2026-02-25 《机械行业专题报告：日系品牌摩托车系列4本田：摩托车全球市占率40%如 何拆解？（推荐）*机械设备*张钰莹》——2026-02-25 《机械行业专题报告：日系品牌摩托车系列3铃木：摩托车FY2023全球市占 率≈4%（推荐）*机械设备*张钰莹》——2026-02-25 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机械设备 | 4.5% | 25.6% | 38.3% | | 沪深300 | 0.1% | 4.3% | 18.7% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和 ...

证券研究报告 商业航天规模化在即， 太空光伏打开成长空间 ——商业航天&太空光伏系列深度（一） 行业投资评级：强于大市|维持 中邮证券研究所 电新团队 中邮证券 1 1 发布时间：2026-02-24 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 卫星需求拉动太空光伏市场空间：卫星互联网应用场景打开+战略布局+太空算力，低轨卫星需求将 快速提升。太空光伏是卫星能源供应唯一供给方案，受益于卫星数量+单星功率提升。 太阳翼向柔性演进：单星功率提升要求太阳翼向轻量化、柔性化发展。 技术路线迭代带来新机遇：砷化镓-HJT-钙钛矿叠层演进。（1）砷化镓为目前主流技术路线，可靠性 高但成本高昂。（2）p-HJT方案依托于成熟的晶硅产业，较砷化镓方案大幅降本，且异质结作为向钙钛 矿叠层方案发展的基础，预计在短中期有较大发展空间。（3）钙钛矿叠层方案目前仍处于起步研究阶段， 存在光照或高温环境下稳定性不足、寿命短等问题亟待突破，随技术成熟产能增加叠加降本，预计中长期 将有较大发展空间。 投资建议：建议关注迈为股份、东方日升、钧达股份。 风险提示：商业火箭发射降本、卫星发射频次不及预期，技术迭代、产业落地不及预期，国际技术标准 与规则竞争 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of space photovoltaic technology, driven by Elon Musk's vision, presents both opportunities and challenges for the Chinese photovoltaic industry, with a focus on collaboration with domestic aerospace companies and the need for technological advancements in the sector [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The space photovoltaic sector is projected to have a market potential of 5.6 trillion yuan, driven by the deployment of satellites and the integration of solar energy with AI capabilities [2][3]. - The Wind Space Photovoltaic Index saw a nearly 40% increase in January, but has since corrected by over 8% due to clarifications from multiple companies [1][2]. - The capital frenzy surrounding space photovoltaics has been influenced by Musk's statements at the Davos Forum, highlighting the importance of solar energy for AI [1][2]. Group 2: Technological Challenges - The high cost of satellite launches and limited capacity have historically constrained the scalability of space photovoltaics, but advancements in reusable rocket technology by SpaceX are changing this landscape [3][7]. - The industry remains cautious about the large-scale commercialization of space photovoltaics, citing the need for extensive testing and validation of technologies in extreme space environments [3][4]. - Current space photovoltaic solutions are primarily custom-made in small batches, necessitating the establishment of standardized supply chains and quality control systems [3][4]. Group 3: Strategic Collaborations - Chinese photovoltaic companies are encouraged to leverage their existing advantages in ground solar energy to collaborate with aerospace firms, aiming to capture opportunities in the space photovoltaic market [6][8]. - The integration of advanced technologies such as perovskite and heterojunction (HJT) solar cells is seen as crucial for the future of space photovoltaics, with potential applications in satellite energy systems [7][8]. - Companies are actively pursuing partnerships to test new technologies, with plans to replace traditional gallium arsenide solar cells with more efficient alternatives in upcoming satellite missions [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The global race towards space energy systems is intensifying, with initiatives like China's "Sunshine Plan" and the EU's SOLARIS plan emphasizing the importance of space photovoltaic stations [7]. - The next few years are expected to yield significant technological advancements in the photovoltaic sector, particularly in the development of P-type ultra-thin HJT cells and perovskite tandem cells [7][8]. - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is positioned to play a pivotal role in the future of space energy, given its comprehensive supply chain and competitive cost structure [8].

"市场还是过于乐观了。" 在太空光伏火爆的几个月里，多位业内人士对智通财经记者提及过类似的观点。 过去数月，光伏产业因切入太空概念而再度成为市场焦点。面对新风口，民企光伏企业们在题材营销与资本互动层面表现得尤为积极，即便是日常宣传推 文，也往往要融入太空元素，强化与太空光伏概念的关联。 自2023年底进入下行周期以来，光伏行业始终笼罩在"反内卷"的舆论氛围中。供给侧未见明显改善，使得行业对需求拓展的渴望愈发迫切。 在此背景下，不少龙头企业开始把希望寄托在太空上，各处接触卫星公司，以期通过布局太空光伏寻求突围路径。 太空光伏概念的爆火，始于2025年11月。 彼时，马斯克在公开连线对话中提及每年将部署100 GW的太阳能AI卫星，称这可能是大规模人工智能供电成本最低的方案。 12月，钧达股份(002865.SZ)、晶科能源(688223.SH)等企业开始针对太空光伏进行发声，部分券商发布了太空光伏研报，与此同时，随着蓝箭航天朱雀三号 的发射，商业航天题材同步升温。 进入2026年，钧达股份公告3000万元认购星翼芯能股权，成为A 股首家明确公开布局太空光伏领域的公司，备受市场关注。 1月22日，马斯克也在达沃斯 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Commercial Aerospace - Shanghai Port Bay's perovskite technology in collaboration with Dongfang Risen is expected to benefit from the SpaceX supply chain. The increase in satellite launches will boost the demand for solar wings, positively impacting related companies [1][3]. Refractory Materials - Companies like Zhongsen Technology, Luyang Energy, and Zhonggang Nairuo are performing well through business extensions and are considered important targets for investment as the sector begins to rally [1][3]. AI+ Sector - Companies such as China National Materials, Honghe Technology, Feilihua, and China Jushi are benefiting from LDK demand, leading to significant profit increases. Attention is drawn to upstream raw materials like high-end electronic fabrics [1][3]. Construction and Building Materials - New business models in the construction and building materials industry focus on increasing market share and revenue scale, with a clear supply clearing and gradual industry improvement. Sanjias Tree's beautiful countryside business and community stores are rapidly developing, while Yuhong enhances competitiveness through service model innovation [1][4]. Real Estate Market Insights Recent Data and Trends - Recent data indicates a positive trend in the real estate market, particularly in first and second-tier cities where second-hand housing transaction volume has increased year-on-year, and price indices have turned positive. The listing volume has decreased, with demand driven by school district housing improving transaction structure. The new housing market is expected to rebound post-holiday due to supply constraints [1][5]. Investment Strategy - The current rally in real estate stocks is characterized by a mix of speculative and long-term capital, suggesting a more sustainable upward trend. The second quarter may present an opportunity to increase real estate positions, with recommended stocks including China Merchants Shekou, New City Holdings, Jindi Group, and Wo Ai Wo Jia [1][6][8]. Transportation and Logistics Sector Investment Themes - The transportation and logistics sector has four main investment themes: 1. Domestic express logistics is entering a critical consolidation phase, with a focus on leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [2][9]. 2. Cross-border e-commerce and the Belt and Road Initiative, with key companies including SF Holding and JD Logistics [2][9]. 3. Platform transportation through internet platforms like Didi and Cao Cao Mobility, which are expected to enhance profits with the realization of autonomous driving and new energy vehicle replacements [2][10]. 4. Large cycle sectors, including aviation and shipping, are anticipated to see profit growth due to tight supply and recovering demand. Companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping are recommended, with significant profit elasticity expected from VLCC operations [2][10]. Additional Considerations - The real estate market's upward speed is not expected to be as rapid as in previous cycles, with a potential long-term upward trend following policy implementation. The core cities' housing prices may stabilize by the end of the year, with real estate stocks likely leading the fundamental bottom by 2 to 3 quarters [1][8]. - Long-term capital movements should be closely monitored to adjust investment strategies accordingly [1][7].

Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace sector in the A-share market is experiencing positive developments, with 68 concept stocks analyzed, of which 52 have disclosed performance forecasts indicating a mix of profitability improvements and growth in net profits [1] Group 1: Performance Forecasts - Five companies are expected to turn losses into profits, while nine companies are projected to reduce losses, and eleven companies anticipate year-on-year growth in net profit [1] - Notable companies with significant expected profit growth include: - Beimo High-tech: Expected net profit of 190 million to 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1076.16% to 1261.87% [1] - Zhimingda: Expected net profit of around 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 414% [1] - Aerospace Science and Technology: Expected net profit of 60 million to 90 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 388.74% to 633.11% [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The commercial aerospace sector has shown a trend of rising and then falling stock prices this year, with some individual stocks experiencing significant pullbacks [4] - The largest pullback was observed in Aerospace Hongtu, which declined by 48.8%, while 12 other stocks, including Shaanxi Huada and Aerospace Huanyu, saw pullbacks exceeding 30% [4] Group 3: Institutional Attention - Since January, 14 commercial aerospace concept companies have received at least two rounds of institutional research, indicating heightened interest [4] - Notable companies include Chaojie Co., which has been researched seven times, and Taili Technology, which has been researched four times [4] Group 4: Investment Focus - According to CITIC Securities, the current hot investment areas include reusable rockets, the SpaceX chain, and space computing power, with low-orbit communication satellite chains being the first segment supported by fundamental logic and orders [5] - The focus should be on core assets and identifying "inflation links" and "marginal new additions," with a positive outlook on related sectors such as rocket 3D printing, satellite RF antennas, satellite carbon fiber composites, solar wings, and inter-satellite laser communication [5]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the space photovoltaic industry, indicating a transformative opportunity within the entire supply chain driven by advancements in satellite technology and applications [3]. Core Insights - The space economy is becoming a core battleground for technological competition, with photovoltaic energy being the preferred energy source in space environments. Solar energy is efficient and sustainable for long-term power supply in satellites, where solar arrays determine the power capacity [3]. - The demand for space photovoltaics is expected to grow significantly, particularly in the low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite sector, with market size potentially reaching hundreds of billions by 2025-2030. If optimistic deployment scenarios for space computing materialize post-2030, demand could see exponential growth [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological iterations in space photovoltaic systems, highlighting the transition from traditional silicon-based technologies to advanced heterojunction (HJT) and perovskite solutions, which cater to the evolving needs for efficiency, flexibility, and cost-effectiveness [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Commercial Space Growth - The commercial space sector is experiencing dual growth in scale and technology, enhancing industry prosperity. The sector encompasses manufacturing, launching, and operational services, focusing on cost efficiency and scalability [5][8]. - The commercial space industry's growth is driven by the deployment of satellite constellations and the increasing demand for applications such as communication, navigation, and remote sensing [9]. Section 2: Satellite Manufacturing and Launch - Global satellite manufacturing and launch activities are entering a high-speed development phase, with the number of satellite launches expected to reach 4,524 by 2025. This growth is fueled by the acceleration of commercial constellation projects [21]. - The competition for orbital and frequency resources is intensifying as the number of satellites increases, leading to strategic planning for scarce orbital positions [28]. Section 3: Space Computing Demand - The rise of AI and advanced computing models is driving a surge in demand for space computing capabilities, which can alleviate energy constraints faced by terrestrial data centers. This shift is expected to enhance the value and commercial potential of satellites [17][18]. - The report outlines the advantages of space computing, including energy efficiency and cost-effectiveness, which are critical for supporting high-energy applications in space [17]. Section 4: Technological Advancements in Photovoltaics - The report highlights the evolution of solar cell technologies in response to the unique challenges of space environments, with a focus on improving energy-to-weight ratios and flexibility [3]. - The photovoltaic systems are crucial for satellite operations, with solar arrays constituting a significant portion of satellite costs and performance [62][63]. Section 5: Domestic Developments in Commercial Space - Domestic commercial space development is undergoing a significant transformation, with policies and infrastructure supporting rapid growth. The establishment of dedicated launch facilities and streamlined approval processes are enhancing operational efficiency [41][43]. - The report notes that China is advancing towards a new cycle of industrialized large-scale launches, with ambitious plans for satellite constellations and increased launch frequency [48].

Summary of the Conference Call on Space Photovoltaics Industry Overview - The conference focused on the space photovoltaics industry, particularly the advancements and investment opportunities related to satellite power systems and commercial space activities [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Investment Logic in Space Photovoltaics**: The development of space photovoltaics is seen as a core direction for upgrading satellite power systems, driven by the deployment of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellations and emerging applications in space computing [1][2]. 2. **Commercial Space Development**: The potential of space photovoltaics is fundamentally linked to the progress of commercial space activities, which emphasize cost, efficiency, and scalability compared to traditional state-driven space missions [1][2]. 3. **Satellite Functionality and Cost**: Traditional satellites are categorized by their functions (communication, navigation, remote sensing), with costs varying significantly. The cost of early Beidou navigation satellites reached hundreds of millions, while current values range from millions to tens of millions [2]. 4. **Emerging Applications**: Space computing is highlighted as a new application area, driven by the exponential growth in AI and the corresponding demand for computing power, which can be more efficiently managed in space [2][3]. 5. **Growth in Satellite Launches**: The global satellite launch market is experiencing rapid growth, with projections of 4,524 satellites launched by 2025, up from 237 in 2016, indicating a growth rate of over 30% [3][4]. 6. **Competition for Orbital Resources**: The limited availability of orbital resources, particularly in low Earth orbit, is intensifying competition among countries and companies, with significant implications for satellite deployment strategies [4][5]. 7. **Regulatory Framework**: The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has established a regulatory framework that prioritizes satellite launch applications based on a first-come, first-served principle, impacting the competitive landscape [5][6]. 8. **SpaceX's Dominance**: SpaceX is identified as a leading player in the commercial space sector, with a significant share of satellite launches and a growing number of active satellites in orbit [6][7]. 9. **China's Commercial Space Development**: China's commercial space sector is evolving from a focus on small satellite development by private companies to a more integrated model involving state-owned enterprises, enhancing policy stability and infrastructure support [7][8]. 10. **Satellite Power Systems**: The power system of satellites, particularly solar arrays, is crucial for their operational lifespan and capabilities. Solar photovoltaic technology is the primary energy source, with significant cost implications [8][9]. 11. **Trends in Solar Array Technology**: The solar arrays are evolving towards larger and more flexible designs to meet increasing power demands from satellite constellations [9][10]. 12. **Battery Technology**: The conference discussed three main types of solar cell technologies: crystalline silicon, gallium arsenide, and perovskite, each with distinct advantages and challenges in terms of efficiency, cost, and suitability for space applications [10][11][12]. 13. **Market Potential for Perovskite Technology**: Perovskite technology is viewed as having significant long-term potential, with expectations for increased market penetration and efficiency improvements [15][20]. 14. **Investment Opportunities**: Companies involved in the manufacturing of solar cells and related technologies, such as Junda Co., Oriental Sunrise, and Shanghai Port, are highlighted as key players in the space photovoltaics supply chain [22][23][24][25]. Additional Important Content - The discussion emphasized the importance of the entire supply chain in space photovoltaics, from satellite design to power system delivery, and the need for companies to adapt to the evolving technological landscape [21][22]. - The potential for market growth in space photovoltaics is substantial, with estimates suggesting a market size of hundreds of billions to trillions of yuan by 2030, depending on the deployment of space computing capabilities [20][26]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and discussions from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the space photovoltaics industry and its future prospects.

商报讯(记者苗露)昨日，A股强势反弹，沪指午后涨超1%，深证成指涨超2%；港股午后止跌，恒生指 数翻红。截至下午收盘，沪指涨1.29%报4067.74点，深证成指涨2.19%，创业板指涨1.86%，北证50指数 涨3.27%，沪深北三市合计成交约2.57万亿元。 从盘面上看，商业航天概念再度爆发，太空光伏概念拉升，CPO概念崛起，炬光科技涨超18%，盘中突 破300元大关，创历史新高。半导体板块亦走高。此外，近两日大幅回调的黄金概念亦有所反弹，湖南 黄金（002155）午后涨停，紫金矿业（601899）涨约6%。总的来说，A股全市场涨多跌少，超4800股 飘红。 商业航天概念爆发 国信证券研报称，当前金价波动对板块虽有短期情绪影响，但在当前行业增长逻辑转向依赖品牌建设、 工艺创新和文化叙事能力带来的"α收益"下，预计实际基本面影响相对平稳。黄金珠宝行业岁末迎来消 费旺季，板块整体估值处于低位，金价短期波动未影响核心龙头的增长逻辑，投资金业务占比较高企 业，以及具备一口价产品力的公司，仍有望实现稳定成长。 太空光伏概念活跃 受商业航天概念爆发的影响，光伏设备板块近期持续走强，昨日太空光伏概念盘中走势活跃，成分股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of commercial aerospace is driving the evolution of space photovoltaics as a core direction for power system upgrades, with a focus on the transformation of the entire industry chain and the manufacturing sector's intensive delivery [1][2]. Group 1: Commercial Aerospace and Market Dynamics - The space economy has become a core competitive arena in technology, with photovoltaics being the preferred energy source in space environments [2]. - The global low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite layout is accelerating, driven by the increasing number of satellites and the expansion of single-satellite power consumption [2][3]. - The demand for space solar arrays is being driven by the need for cost reduction and efficiency improvements in the context of satellite manufacturing entering an industrialized production era [2][3]. Group 2: Technological Evolution and Market Potential - The technology routes for space photovoltaics are diversifying, with a market potential expected to reach hundreds of billions by 2025-2030, primarily serving traditional low Earth orbit applications [2][3]. - The evolution of solar cell technology is moving from silicon to gallium arsenide and high-efficiency heterojunction (HJT) and perovskite solutions, indicating a broad market space [2][3][26]. Group 3: Industry Chain and Competitive Landscape - The space photovoltaic industry chain includes manufacturing, launching, and operational services, with a focus on the verification cycles provided by actual satellite windows [3][5]. - Companies with the capability for in-orbit verification and production line implementation are expected to gain a first-mover advantage in the market [3][39]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by the need for space environment testing capabilities and collaboration with satellite constellation projects [39]. Group 4: Emerging Applications and Demand Forecast - The demand for space photovoltaics is projected to grow significantly, particularly with the rise of space computing applications, which will further expand the power consumption needs of satellites [2][10]. - The market for space photovoltaics is expected to see a stepwise increase post-2030, contingent on optimistic deployment scenarios for space computing [2][38]. Group 5: Technological Routes and Innovations - Various technological routes are emerging in space photovoltaics, including multi-junction gallium arsenide, HJT, and perovskite technologies, each with distinct advantages and challenges [26][30][36]. - The focus on energy quality ratio, flexibility, and cost-effectiveness is driving innovation in solar cell technologies suitable for space applications [26][30].