Core Viewpoint - Guoquan (02517) has released a positive profit forecast for H1 2025, indicating significant growth in net profit and core operating profit, driven by its community central kitchen strategy and operational efficiency improvements [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit of approximately 180-210 million yuan in H1 2025, representing an increase of about 111%-146% compared to 85.5 million yuan in the same period of 2024 [1]. - Core operating profit is projected to be around 180-210 million yuan, up approximately 44%-68% from 125 million yuan in H1 2024 [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is committed to its community central kitchen strategy, which focuses on expanding its instant retail store network and enhancing store operational efficiency through a multi-channel approach [1]. - The "explosive product" strategy has led to significant sales, with the 99 yuan beef tripe package achieving over 500 million yuan in sales in 2024 and receiving 6.21 billion exposures on Douyin [1]. Membership and Channel Development - As of the end of 2024, the company has registered 41.3 million members, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.2%, with prepaid card deposits reaching 990 million yuan, up 36.6% [1]. - The company has innovated its channel strategy by launching beef tripe hot pot packages through a multi-tiered Douyin account matrix, achieving a total exposure of over 6.21 billion on Douyin in 2024 [1]. Revenue Projections - The company anticipates revenues of 7.183 billion yuan, 8.036 billion yuan, and 9.08 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2]. - Corresponding net profits are projected to be 340 million yuan, 396 million yuan, and 463 million yuan for the same years, with PE valuations of 24x, 21x, and 18x [2].

机构：华泰证券 研究员：樊俊豪/石狄 锅圈发布1H25 业绩预告，预计净利润1.8-2.1 亿元，同增111-146%，核心经营利润1.8-2.1 亿元，同增 44-68%。我们认为利润高增主因公司供应链持续提效，以及性价比爆款套餐策略成效显著，驱动店效 提升及拓店加速，叠加自采比例提升及费用端规模效应释放，带动盈利能力改善。公司高效供应链+自 主爆品研发+万店规模效应的优势日益显现，看好公司展店提速及品类扩张打开中长期成长空间，迈向 一站式"社区央厨"，维持"买入"评级。 同店与拓店双轮驱动，营收增长提速逻辑持续兑现我们预计公司H1 收入约实现中双位数增长，驱动因 素包括：1）同店方面，公司H1 以来推出烧烤集装箱套餐、99 元小龙虾套餐，升级毛肚自由套餐，有 力提振淡季销售，平滑淡旺季曲线，我们预计H1 同店提升约中高单位数。 2）展店方面，店效提升继续缩短加盟商回本周期，我们预计公司H1 稳步拓店，H2 旺季开店有望进一 步提速，且目前公司新店签约顺利，我们看好公司全年净增1000 家门店的目标顺利达成。3）伴随自有 工厂产能释放及客户拓展，我们预计公司2B 收入保持较快提升，进一步提振整体营收增速。 ...

2025 年 07 月 16 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 林昕宇 S0350522110005 | | | | linxy01@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 赵兰亭 S0350524080004 | | | | zhaolt@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 孙馨竹 S0350124060027 | | | | sunxz@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 2025H1 净利润及核心经营利润同比高增， 持续验证"在家吃饭"龙头地位 ——锅圈（02517）业绩预告点评 最近一年走势 事件: 2025 年 7 月 15 日，锅圈（02517）发布正面盈利业绩预告。 投资要点: | 相对恒生指数表现 | | 2025/07/15 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 锅圈 | 11.2% | 47.6% | 21.1% | | 恒生指数 | 2.9% | 14.6% | 36.5% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 4.30 [1][2][10] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of HKD 180-210 million for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 111-146% [1][6] - The significant profit growth is attributed to improved supply chain efficiency and effective pricing strategies, which have enhanced store performance and accelerated store expansion [6][7] - The company aims to open 1,000 new stores in 2025, supported by a successful new store signing process [7][9] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2025E: RMB 7,246 million (up 12% from 2024) - 2026E: RMB 8,355 million (up 15.3% from 2025) - 2027E: RMB 9,608 million (up 15% from 2026) [5][10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2025E: RMB 398.41 million (up 72.8% from 2024) - 2026E: RMB 517.09 million (up 29.79% from 2025) - 2027E: RMB 661.81 million (up 27.99% from 2026) [5][10] - The report anticipates an increase in the company's core operating profit margin, expected to exceed 1 percentage point compared to the same period last year [8][10] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on a "community central kitchen" strategy, expanding its product offerings to include home-cooked meals and various dining solutions [9][10] - The introduction of high-value meal packages and the enhancement of store operations through self-sourcing and cost efficiencies are key components of the growth strategy [6][9] - The company is also leveraging its supply chain advantages to create high-cost performance products and enhance customer engagement through innovative retail formats [9][10]

竞争优势：爆品×会员×新渠道构建三维护城河。①爆品策略：99元毛肚自由套餐2024年销售额破5亿 元，抖音曝光62.1亿次；②会员生态：截至2024年底，公司已注册会员4130万人(同比+48.2%)，预付卡 沉淀资金9.9亿元(同比+36.6%)；③渠道创新： 机构：国海证券 研究员：林昕宇/赵兰亭 本报告深度解析锅圈(02517)"在家吃饭"千亿赛道中的可持续增长逻辑，核心解答三大关键问题：①万 店规模如何转化为竞争壁垒；②分散市场中如何捕捉下沉机遇；③供应链与渠道创新如何构建差异化护 城河。 万店规模奠定龙头地位，垂直供应链优化成本结构。公司创立于2015年，早期专注于供应链管理,持续 布局线下门店覆盖终端市场。截至2024年底，公司拥有10150家门店(加盟店10135家，自营店15家)，覆 盖全国31省，据弗若斯特沙利文，公司在2022年以3.0%零售额市占率位居中国在家吃饭餐食产品首 位。通过自建6大单品工厂(牛肉/丸滑/底料/水产/滑类/酸汤专厂)，实现核心食材自主生产。2024年核心 经营利润同比+3.1%至3.11亿元，据央广网，公司计划5年新增1万家门店进一步强化规模效应。 赛道高增长格局 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The report analyzes Guoquan (02517) in the "home dining" market, focusing on its sustainable growth logic and addressing three key questions: how the scale of 10,000 stores translates into competitive barriers, how to capture opportunities in a fragmented market, and how supply chain and channel innovations create differentiated advantages [3][4] - As of the end of 2024, Guoquan operates 10,150 stores, with a retail market share of 3.0% in China's home dining products, positioning it as the market leader [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The home dining market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 20.7% from 2022 to 2027, reaching an estimated market size of 940 billion yuan by 2027, with significant growth potential in lower-tier cities where penetration rates are below 25% [4][5] - The competitive landscape is fragmented, with the top five companies holding only 11.1% market share, indicating substantial room for growth in the lower-tier markets [4] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - Guoquan's competitive strategy includes a focus on popular products, a robust membership ecosystem, and innovative channel strategies. The "99 yuan beef tripe package" achieved sales of over 500 million yuan in 2024, with significant exposure on Douyin [5] - By the end of 2024, Guoquan had registered 41.3 million members, a year-on-year increase of 48.2%, with prepaid card deposits reaching 990 million yuan, up 36.6% [5] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate revenues of 7.183 billion yuan, 8.036 billion yuan, and 9.080 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 340 million yuan, 396 million yuan, and 463 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 25x, 21x, and 18x [5] Group 5: Industry Overview - The report on the new materials industry highlights the strategic opportunities arising from advancements in nuclear fusion technology, with significant investments and milestones expected in the coming years [7][8] - The global nuclear fusion market is projected to reach 345.1 billion dollars by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.1% until 2037 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The report provides an in-depth analysis of the company's sustainable growth logic in the "at-home dining" market, addressing three key questions: how the scale of 10,000 stores translates into competitive barriers, how to capture opportunities in a fragmented market, and how supply chain and channel innovations create differentiated advantages [8] - The company has established a leading position with a store count of 10,150, optimizing its cost structure through a vertical supply chain [8][11] - The "at-home dining" market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected CAGR of 20.7% from 2022 to 2027, indicating significant opportunities in lower-tier markets [8][31] - The company employs a strategy of explosive products, membership ecosystems, and channel innovations to build a competitive moat [8] Market Data - As of July 9, 2025, the company's current price is HKD 3.39, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 8,999 million [5] - The company has a retail market share of 3.0% in the "at-home dining" segment, ranking first in China [38] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 64.70 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.17% [16] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 71.83 billion, RMB 80.36 billion, and RMB 90.80 billion, respectively [9] - The net profit for 2024 was RMB 2.31 billion, with forecasts of RMB 3.40 billion, RMB 3.96 billion, and RMB 4.63 billion for the following years [9] Competitive Advantages - The company has optimized its product offerings and channels, with a focus on explosive products and a robust membership system, resulting in a registered membership of 41.3 million by the end of 2024 [8][58] - The company has established six production facilities to enhance its supply chain capabilities, which helps in cost optimization and product quality [50][52] Growth Strategy - The company plans to add 10,000 new stores over the next five years, focusing on expanding into lower-tier markets [57] - The establishment of a new production base in Hainan is expected to enhance supply chain efficiency and support the company's growth objectives [57]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guoquan, reported a steady growth in its 2024 annual performance, with revenue reaching 6.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Guoquan achieved a gross profit of 1.417 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.9% year-on-year growth, with a gross margin of 21.9% [1] - The core operating profit was 311 million yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year [1] - Cash reserves increased by 9.8% from 1.936 billion yuan at the end of 2023 to 2.125 billion yuan, while the debt ratio decreased to 3.2% [1] - The company announced a significant increase in shareholder dividends by 39.8%, totaling approximately 200 million yuan [1] Operational Highlights - Guoquan's store count reached 10,150 by December 31, 2024, maintaining a scale above 10,000 stores, supported by the "seedling plan" initiated in the second half of 2023 [1] - The company launched new upgraded store types targeting township markets, adding 287 new township stores throughout the year [2] Online and Membership Growth - Guoquan's exposure through Douyin (TikTok) reached 6.21 billion times in 2024, with the "99 yuan free hot pot set" generating over 500 million yuan in sales [2] - The registered membership count grew by 48.2% to 41.3 million by December 31, 2024, with prepaid card deposits increasing by 36.6% to 990 million yuan [2] Supply Chain Enhancements - The company strengthened vertical integration in its supply chain, adding three new food production factories, doubling the total to six [2] - The proportion of products sold from self-owned factories increased to 20% [2] - Inventory turnover days decreased by 25% compared to 2023, aided by partnerships with logistics providers and a network of 18 digital central warehouses [2] Future Development Plans - Guoquan aims to consolidate its advantages by expanding its sales network and targeting lower-tier markets, with a goal of reaching 20,000 stores in five years [3] - The company plans to enhance its membership ecosystem and leverage IP to improve brand reach [3] - There are intentions to innovate sales channels, including the development of instant retail and smart retail networks using IoT, big data, and AI technologies [4] International Expansion - Guoquan intends to explore overseas markets, particularly in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia, by establishing a new paradigm for Chinese food supply chains abroad [4]

通过门店精益化运营、强化供应链等手段，不断夯实自身业务基本面。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜ Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 从线下端来看，锅圈在乡镇市场取得了突破式进展。财报提到，锅圈推出的面向乡镇市场的升级店型 ——新乡镇门店可以更好地满足乡镇市场消费者需求，全年净增新乡镇门店287家。这一成果验证了 下沉市场的消费潜力，进一步巩固了锅圈的全国化布局优势，成为其进一步布局下沉市场的重要战略 动作。 锅圈董事长杨明超曾表示，锅圈在未来 5年门店总量要达到两万家。新乡镇店将成为达成这 一目标的突破口之一 。 从线上端来看，锅圈在 2024年通过多层级的抖音账号进行锅圈产品的消费者触达，全年通过抖音渠 道的曝光量达到62.1亿次。其5月底开始推出的"99元毛肚自由火锅套餐"通过抖音等线上渠道引爆 销量，全年累计销售额超过5亿元，成为2024年的现象级单品。 在线上渠道开拓顺利的基础上，锅圈的 "会员工程"进展顺利，带动了会员数量的大幅增长和黏性显 著提升。截至2024年12月31日，锅圈的注册会员数4130万，同比增长48.2%。 此外， 锅圈在 2024年加强了产业端垂直整合的力度 ...