2026年3月1日 证券研究报告 | 太空光伏研究专题 逐梦航天，太空光伏技术与市场前景展望 行业研究 · 行业专题 太空光伏 · 价值分析 投资评级：优于大市 证券分析师：王蔚祺 证券分析师：李恒源 证券分析师：袁阳 010-88005313 021-60875174 0755-22940078 S0980520080003 S0980520080009 S0980524030002 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn lihengyuan@guosen.com.cn yuanyang2@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容一、太空光伏市场前景分析 太空光伏发展现状与前景综述 图1：太空光伏与地面电站光伏（硅基）市场比较 | 2025年 | 太空光伏（砷化镓） | 地面光伏（晶硅） | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年销售单价 | 900-1500元/w | 0.7-1.2元/w | | 2025年新增容量 | 约9-10MW | 620 GW* | | 2025年市场规模 | 80-90 亿元 | 4200-4640 亿元 | | | ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The commercial space industry is accelerating, and space photovoltaics are opening up growth opportunities. The demand for space photovoltaics is surging due to the commercialization of space, with the U.S. and China leading global commercial launches. Space photovoltaics offer significant advantages over ground-based solar, including unobstructed sunlight, 24-hour power generation, and high energy density, making them essential for AI data centers and satellite constellations [1][14]. - Countries are rapidly positioning themselves in the space photovoltaic sector, with China holding key advantages. The Chinese photovoltaic industry dominates global production, accounting for 92% of silicon wafer capacity and over 80% of battery and module production. This positions China to meet the substantial equipment procurement needs arising from Elon Musk's 200GW production plan [2][15]. - China is entering a dense phase of reusable rocket launches, marking 2026 as a breakthrough year for commercial space. Both state-owned and private companies are making significant advancements in reusable rocket technology, which will reshape the economic model of commercial space and reduce launch costs [5][16]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Commercial Space Acceleration - The commercial space sector is entering a new era, with the U.S. and China as the main players. In 2025, the U.S. is expected to conduct 167 launches, while China will have 92, both showing year-on-year growth. Low Earth orbit satellites are becoming central to development, driven by the need for satellite internet and resource allocation [19][25]. Section 2: Global Positioning in Space Photovoltaics - Major global tech giants are competing in the space photovoltaic arena through differentiated strategies. The U.S. has a "three giants" competition, while China employs a "state-owned + private enterprise" collaborative model. Chinese companies are increasingly entering the supply chain of SpaceX, with significant procurement opportunities anticipated [2][28]. Section 3: Reusable Rocket Launches in China - 2026 is set to be a pivotal year for China's commercial space sector, with multiple core rockets entering key validation stages. The advancements in reusable rocket technology are expected to significantly lower launch costs and create new opportunities in satellite networking and space infrastructure [5][34]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Beneficiary companies in space photovoltaics include JunDa Co., Maiwei Co., Liancheng CNC, Laplace, Dongfang Risheng, Yujing Co., Jiejia Weichuang, Gaoce Co., Aotewei, and Jingsheng Mechanical [6][17]. - In the SpaceX and North America sector, recommended companies include Western Materials, Xinwei Communication, and Tongyu Communication [6][18]. - For rockets, key companies include Aerospace Power, Chaojie Co., Zaiseng Technology, Aerospace Machinery, Aerospace Hongtu, GaoHua Technology, Aerospace Electronics, and Tianli Composite [6][18]. - In the space computing sector, recommended companies are Shunhao Co., Zhenlei Technology, Putian Technology, Zhongke Xingtou, Jiayuan Technology, Qianzhao Optoelectronics, and Shanghai Port [6][18]. - Satellite-related companies include Xicet Testing, Tianyin Machinery, Xinwei Communication, Tongyu Communication, and China Satellite [6][18]. - For communication payloads and laser communication, recommended companies are Aerospace Electronics, Fenghuo Communication, New Light Optoelectronics, Shanghai Hanhua, and Zhenlei Technology [6][18]. - Ground stations and user terminals include Haige Communication, Beidou Xingtong, Shuo Beid, Huace Navigation, and Mengsheng Electronics [6][18]. Section 5: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The space photovoltaic industry is transitioning from "engineering productization" to "scale industrialization." Future efforts should focus on technology, engineering, manufacturing, and system collaboration to seize the vast market opportunities presented by commercial space [33].

（来源：浪哥财经） …… 假期，两个赛道出现新刺激； 第一，人形机器人，这次不一样！ 马年春晚，4家机器人企业亮相舞台，这次大为惊艳。 今年相较于去年，人形机器人性能大幅提升，不论是高难度群体运控，还是端到端展示ToC任务，机器 人运控能力显著提高，能武术对打，动作干净利落，甚至实现了1秒内快速灵巧手抓握等。 同时，京东数据显示，春节期间机器人产品用户访问量同比大增4倍，搜索"机器人"的用户更是暴涨25 倍。 对于人形机器人这个产业，没有谁比我们更坚定，因为我们2025年一直在直播中持续的解读其产业链以 及AI的端侧，包括PCB、CPO等，想必都已经很透彻。 之所以这么坚定，是因为从产业的周期更替看，人形机器人已经熬过了技术导入期，即将进入成长期， 这个时候的产业链企业，告别了技术和需求端的迷茫，正迎来业绩和估值的戴维斯双击。 而此次春晚的亮相，进一步证实了行业进入成长期的信号，这一阶段，是产业链企业戴维斯双击最快的 时期。 但是，在万亿新产业到来之际，不少人企业陷入了一个误区。 所以，不论是机器人性能，还是用户需求端，人形机器人产业正迎来真正的商业化破局阶段，这才是最 为关键的。 也就是说，2026年，人形 ...

商业航天：太空光伏大有可为 20260223 摘要 商业航天中，卫星太阳翼因卫星数量激增和单颗卫星太阳翼面积扩大而 日益重要，尤其是在低轨道资源竞争激烈的背景下，我国对卫星互联网 建设需求紧迫。 太空算力是 2025 年商业航天的核心变量，通过部署在轨数据处理设施 实现"天枢地算"模式，尽管面临散热和成本挑战，但通过全链路降本 和工程验证，长期发展确定性强。 美国 SpaceX 计划部署百万颗卫星并推动 100GW 太阳能制造能力，侧 重低轨道 AI 数据中心供电；中国以之江实验室为代表，3T 计算星座完 成在轨测试，实现卫星组网和 AI 模型部署。 美国主要采用 PERC 金硅方案，成本低但光电转换效率较低；中国采用 三级砷化镓方案，效率高但成本昂贵。未来中国可能探索钙钛矿电池， 具备成本低、比功率高等优势。 钙钛矿电池具有价格便宜、材料用量少、比功率高等特点，柔性程度更 高，有助于降低火箭载荷并提升太阳翼面积，从而提供更多能源供给， 短期内单结钙钛矿更具潜在应用可能性。 Q&A 太空光伏的定义和应用场景是什么？ 太空光伏不仅包括卫星的太阳翼能源系统，还涵盖了太空太阳能电站等一系列 太空发电体系。卫星的太阳 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic equipment industry, indicating a recovery and growth trajectory for 2026, driven by space computing applications and increasing overseas ground demand. Core Insights - The photovoltaic equipment sector is characterized by both growth and cyclical attributes, with supply, demand, and technological factors resonating together [2]. - The industry is expected to enter a recovery phase in 2026, following a significant adjustment in 2025, where leading equipment manufacturers have strengthened cash flow management and reduced operational risks [5]. - The emergence of space computing applications is anticipated to expand the long-term growth potential of the photovoltaic sector, transitioning from ground energy to orbital energy systems [5]. - Overseas demand, particularly from the U.S. and the Middle East, is projected to be a significant source of incremental growth in 2026, with U.S. solar installations remaining robust and local manufacturing policies enhancing supply chain security [5]. - A new round of technological iterations is seen as a key variable for capacity reset amid supply-demand imbalances, with advancements in HJT technology expected to drive structural expansion [5]. Summary by Sections Section 1: 2025 Industry Fundamentals and 2026 Outlook - The fundamentals of leading photovoltaic equipment manufacturers are expected to bottom out in 2025, with a positive outlook for 2026 driven by recovery in equipment orders [5]. - The report highlights the importance of cash flow management and risk control among leading manufacturers, with adjustments in payment models to mitigate risks during industry downturns [9][10]. Section 2: Space Computing Applications - The report discusses the significant reduction in launch costs due to advancements in reusable rocket technology, which is expected to facilitate the deployment of space data centers powered by photovoltaic energy [38]. - The U.S. and China are leading in the planning and deployment of space computing capabilities, with ambitious goals for satellite constellations and data centers [41][42]. Section 3: Overseas Ground Demand - The U.S. market is highlighted as a key area for growth, with local manufacturing policies and high installation rates driving demand for photovoltaic equipment [5]. - The report notes that Middle Eastern countries are also increasing their solar installation plans, providing further opportunities for growth [5]. Section 4: Domestic Policy Changes and Technological Iteration - The report emphasizes the need to monitor domestic policy changes and the ongoing technological advancements within the industry, which are crucial for maintaining competitiveness [5]. Section 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the HJT technology space, such as Maiwei Co., Jinsheng Electric, and Aotwei, as well as those specializing in automation and thin silicon wafer cutting equipment [5].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the photovoltaic equipment sector is expected to recover in 2026, driven by the application of space computing power and growth in overseas ground demand [5][8] - The report highlights that the supply and demand dynamics, along with technological factors, give photovoltaic equipment both growth and cyclical attributes [2] - The report emphasizes that the leading equipment manufacturers have strengthened cash flow management through adjusted payment models, which enhances their risk control capabilities [9][10] Group 2 - The application of space computing power is accelerating, transitioning photovoltaic energy from terrestrial to orbital energy systems, thus opening up long-term growth potential [5][38] - The report notes that overseas ground demand, particularly in the U.S. and the Middle East, is expected to be a significant source of incremental growth in 2026 [5][41] - The report discusses the importance of domestic policy changes and the continuous iteration of new technologies in the photovoltaic equipment industry [5][34] Group 3 - The report suggests that the photovoltaic equipment sector is entering a new structural expansion window driven by technological upgrades, as the industry faces a supply-demand imbalance [5][56] - Investment recommendations include focusing on leading companies in HJT technology, low-oxygen monocrystalline furnaces, and automation equipment [5][34]

当前，全球商业航天行业正迎来高速发展期，AI算力需求的爆发式增长更是为行业添上了一把火，太 空数据中心成为备受关注的新赛道，而作为航天活动中性价比最高的电源解决方案，太空光伏也随之迎 来发展新机遇。 相较于地面光伏，太空光伏在光照、稳定性、土地利用等方面优势显著，技术路线也在不断迭代升级。 尽管目前太空光伏的市场规模仍较为有限，但随着发射成本的逐步下降，其远期增长潜力巨大，相关产 业链企业也将迎来新的发展契机，成为新能源与商业航天融合领域的优质投资赛道。 01 商业航天 高景气政策+需求双轮驱动太空光伏发展 全球商业航天已迈入高速发展阶段，中美两国成为行业发展的核心引领者。截至2024年末，全球在轨航 天器数量突破11605颗，美国以76%的占比占据主导，中国以9%左右的占比位列第二，且发射频次和载 荷能力仍在稳步提升。 2025年上半年，全球商业航天高景气度延续，中国发射入轨卫星数量同比增幅达92%，远超全球平均水 平。 国内政策对商业航天的支持力度持续加码，商业航天不仅被纳入"新质生产力"范畴，还连续两年写入 《政府工作报告》，2025年国家航天局更是出台专项行动计划，将空间能源技术列为核心突破方向，为 ...

"市场还是过于乐观了。" 在太空光伏火爆的几个月里，多位业内人士对智通财经记者提及过类似的观点。 过去数月，光伏产业因切入太空概念而再度成为市场焦点。面对新风口，民企光伏企业们在题材营销与资本互动层面表现得尤为积极，即便是日常宣传推 文，也往往要融入太空元素，强化与太空光伏概念的关联。 自2023年底进入下行周期以来，光伏行业始终笼罩在"反内卷"的舆论氛围中。供给侧未见明显改善，使得行业对需求拓展的渴望愈发迫切。 在此背景下，不少龙头企业开始把希望寄托在太空上，各处接触卫星公司，以期通过布局太空光伏寻求突围路径。 太空光伏概念的爆火，始于2025年11月。 彼时，马斯克在公开连线对话中提及每年将部署100 GW的太阳能AI卫星，称这可能是大规模人工智能供电成本最低的方案。 12月，钧达股份(002865.SZ)、晶科能源(688223.SH)等企业开始针对太空光伏进行发声，部分券商发布了太空光伏研报，与此同时，随着蓝箭航天朱雀三号 的发射，商业航天题材同步升温。 进入2026年，钧达股份公告3000万元认购星翼芯能股权，成为A 股首家明确公开布局太空光伏领域的公司，备受市场关注。 1月22日，马斯克也在达沃斯 ...

《财经》近日采访了多位光伏业权威人士，他们的核心观点有四： 1．HJT（异质结）电池最有望成为下一代太空光伏电池，更下一代的太空光伏电池则是钙钛矿叠层电 池。 特斯拉、SpaceX（空间探索技术公司）董事长埃隆·马斯克（ElonMusk）团队2月初走访多家中国光伏 企业后，A股光伏板块多只个股涨停，太空光伏成为热门话题。 马斯克称，太空光伏的发电效率可达地面光伏的5倍。在30至36个月内，太空有可能成为部署人工智能 算力中心的最具经济性场景。 2．马斯克的太空光伏计划对提振中国光伏需求几乎没有影响，即使马斯克的梦想成真，太空光伏占全 球光伏消费总量的比例也只有很小比例，无法替代地面光伏。 3．美国太空光伏的发展进度需要高度重视，但美国太空光伏将根植于美国本土制造，中国光伏批量拿 下美国订单不太现实，中国光伏企业真正的机会是服务好中国的太空战略。 4．光伏毫无疑问是太空的基石能源，未来的能源体系将是地天一体，光伏业界要加强和国内商业航天 的合作，共同探索广阔的太空光伏蓝海。 01 马斯克的太空光伏计划靠谱吗？ 马斯克将太空光伏视为支撑其未来AI算力的主力能源，他近两个月多次表态：特斯拉与SpaceX将在三 年内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is currently focused on "anti-involution," with expectations that the supply-demand gap will gradually narrow by 2026, leading to a potential price recovery across the industry chain [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The photovoltaic industry has experienced significant price declines since 2023, resulting in widespread losses across the main industry chain and increased financial strain on companies due to extended payment terms and rising bad debts [1] - A temporary surge in photovoltaic installations is anticipated in early 2025 due to policy influences, but a significant drop in domestic grid-connected projects is expected after June 2025, leading to a market vacuum [1] - The establishment of a storage platform by leading companies indicates efforts to address the price inversion in the silicon material sector, with stricter energy consumption standards likely to phase out excess capacity [2] - The supply of polysilicon is expected to decrease significantly in 2025 compared to peak levels in 2023 and 2024, supporting price stabilization [3] Segment Analysis - **Polysilicon Segment**: Production is expected to decline after reaching a peak in October, with a strong consensus on maintaining stable prices due to proactive supply-side reductions [3] - **Wafer Segment**: New capacity additions are expected to slow significantly starting in 2025, with demand growth also tapering off, leading to improved price conditions through inventory reduction [3] - **Battery Segment**: Supply-side capacity is not expected to increase significantly, focusing instead on efficiency and cost optimizations, with potential growth in the market for BC batteries driven by decreasing costs [3] - **Module Segment**: The module industry has entered a phase of low profitability, but cost optimization efforts by leading companies may lead to a recovery in gross margins as supply-side adjustments take effect [4] Emerging Technology Focus - The industry is increasingly interested in space photovoltaics, which convert solar energy into electricity in space environments, providing a reliable power source for spacecraft [4][5] - Space photovoltaics offer significant advantages, including stable energy supply unaffected by atmospheric conditions and low maintenance requirements, making them ideal for long-term missions [5] - The global competition in commercial space and the demand for low Earth orbit satellites are expected to drive growth in space photovoltaic applications [6] - Major companies like SpaceX and Google are actively developing space-based data centers, which could further enhance the demand for space photovoltaics [7] Technical Developments - Current battery technologies for space photovoltaics include gallium arsenide, crystalline silicon, and perovskite batteries, each with distinct advantages and limitations [7][8] - Gallium arsenide batteries are favored for their high efficiency and durability, while crystalline silicon batteries are gaining attention for their lower production costs and suitability for low Earth orbit applications [8]