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算力PCB再探讨
2025-03-18 01:38
Summary of the Conference Call on PCB Industry Industry Overview - The global PCB output in Q4 2024 is expected to grow by 5.8% year-on-year, with the Americas and mainland China both experiencing a growth of 9%, while Europe sees a decline of 5.3% and Japan also faces challenges due to a lack of AI supply chain and declining fuel vehicle sales [3][4] Key Insights and Arguments - The growth in PCB output is significantly driven by the AI trend, particularly benefiting companies in mainland China and the Americas, while Japan and Europe are negatively impacted [3][4] - Domestic PCB companies such as Huadian Co. and Shenzhen South Circuit are projected to see over 70% growth in 2025, with Shun Cheng expected to achieve more than half of its 2024 annual performance in Q1 2025, indicating a strong pull from AI data centers [5] Impact of Major Companies - NVIDIA's H series servers, along with AMD, Google, and domestic AI servers, are major contributors to the increased demand for PCBs. Future products like NVIDIA's B series B200/B300 and the next-generation Ruby AI servers are expected to continue driving high-value PCB development [6] - The GB200 series is performing well with strong orders and production yields reaching mass production levels, benefiting companies like Shenghong [6] Technological Developments - The GB300 solution has introduced significant changes compared to the GB200, increasing the layer count from 24-layer HDI to 26-layer through-hole boards, indicating enhanced technical complexity and application scenarios [7] - The Robin 288 cabinet solution utilizes a 40-layer mixed pressure PDP backplane, with each cabinet requiring approximately 2 square meters of backplane area, creating new investment opportunities. Companies like Jingwang are already in the sampling and testing phase, with mass production expected in 2026 [8] Domestic Server Market - The domestic computing power chain is expected to perform well in 2025, with core domestic server manufacturers achieving over 50% of their annual targets in Q1. The demand for Ascend 910 chips is projected to exceed 800,000 units, with companies like Haiguang and Moore Threads likely to make breakthroughs, positively impacting domestic server PCB demand [9] Optical Module Market - The demand for 800G optical modules is expected to nearly double in 2025, with the 1.6T optical modules also set to ramp up quickly in the second half of the year. The market size is projected to exceed 4 billion RMB, benefiting companies like Shenzhen South Circuit and potentially others like Gengxing and Jingwang [10] Future Outlook - The PCB industry in both the global and mainland China markets is expected to remain in a high prosperity phase driven by demand for AI servers and network devices. High-end PCB capacity remains tight, and leading PCB manufacturers are showing significant quarter-on-quarter growth. Companies such as Shenfeng, Huadian, and Shengnan, as well as upstream CCL material companies like Nanya Technology and Shenyu Technology, should be closely monitored [11]