数说新能源 欢迎订购2026年月度电池装机数据库和中国汽车上险数据库 联系方式：13220160736（同微信） 一、 2026年1月销量核心解读 二、 未来销量节奏展望（2026年2月及以后） 1、数据与不及预期原因： 补贴政策提前消化：2026年的国补（报废更新补贴、以旧换新补贴）政策在1月1日或4日就已明确并落地（比往年 提前10天到两周），消费者已将其纳入预算，并未带来惊喜或抢购。 新车营销前置：几乎所有主流车企（传统、新势力、合资、央国企）都在1月中下旬（春节前）密集预告了将于3月 底、4月（北京车展前后）上市的全新车型（如比亚迪的汉、唐、秦MAX，吉利的星耀8、银河M7等）。这种罕见 的"营销前置"加剧了消费者的等待心理。 缺乏促销氛围：今年监管严格（反内卷、反不正当竞争），车企被禁止随意降价、低价倾销。促销手段受限，主要 依赖提供金融贴息（3-5年免息）、保险补贴、赠送权益（车膜、车衣）等合规方式，对销量刺激效果有限。 价格体系不稳的负面预期：过去两年车型改款即降价的现象让消费者认为现在买"老款"不划算，担心新款上市后老 款价格会重构。 春节时间晚：2026年春节在2月中旬，导致节前传统旺季并未 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) released the 402nd batch of new car application lists on December 5, indicating a significant number of new vehicle registrations as companies plan for the upcoming year [2][14] - The application list reflects the product direction of major automotive companies for the next year, showcasing various new models and updates [2][14] Group 2 - Changan is focusing on models like CS75PLUS and UNI-V, introducing hybrid and plug-in hybrid versions to provide consumers with more diverse power options [4][16] - BYD has submitted multiple new car applications, with the most notable being the Qin MAX and Seal 06 MAX, marking the return of the MAX suffix after several years and upgrading the electric versions of Qin L and Seal 06 [5][17] - Great Wall's Haval H9 remains a significant model with a rugged positioning and offers a variety of optional configurations to meet the needs of different off-road enthusiasts [7][19] - Geely has also submitted several new models, with the Galaxy M7 being particularly noteworthy as it represents a significant redesign of the Galaxy L7, positioning it as a strong competitor to models like Song PLUS [8][20]