Report Overview - **Report Date**: October 10, 2025 [2] - **Data Sources**: Wind, MySteel, GF Futures Research Institute [2] Commodity Market Analysis Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Spot price is 5950, futures price is 5768, basis is 182, basis rate is 4.65%, and historical quantile is 62.00% [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Spot price is 3096 [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Spot price is 3350, futures price is 3286, basis rate is 1.95%, and historical quantile is 45.30% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Spot price (converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder) is 839, futures price is 791, basis is 49, basis rate is 6.20%, and historical quantile is 41.20% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Spot price (converted price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke) is 1654, futures price is 1613, basis is - 41, basis rate is - 2.46%, and historical quantile is 40.37% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Spot price (converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal) is 1164, futures price is 1160, basis is - 4, basis rate is - 0.34%, and historical quantile is 22.30% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2511)**: Spot price (SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price) is 86750, futures price is 85740, basis is - 1010, basis rate is - 1.16%, and historical quantile is 2.29% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2511)**: Spot price (SMM A00 aluminum average price) is 20960, futures price is 21090, basis is - 130, basis rate is - 0.62%, and historical quantile is 15.62% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Spot price is 2968, futures price is 2875, basis rate is 3.23%, and historical quantile is 53.30% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2511)**: Spot price (SMM 1 zinc ingot average price) is 22315, futures price is 22070, basis is - 245, basis rate is - 1.10%, and historical quantile is 7.08% [1] - **Tin (SN2511)**: Spot price (SMM 1 tin average price) is 287090, futures price is 284200, basis is - 2890, basis rate is - 1.01%, and historical quantile is 6.04% [1] - **Nickel (NI2511)**: Spot price (SMM 1 imported nickel average price) is 124480, futures price is 122800, basis is 1680, basis rate is 1.35%, and historical quantile is 5.20% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2511)**: Spot price is 13320, futures price is 12860, basis is 460, basis rate is 3.58%, and historical quantile is 87.12% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: Spot price (SMM annual average price of oxygen - containing 215530) is 9450, futures price is 8640, basis is 810, basis rate is 9.38%, and historical quantile is 55.61% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2512)**: Spot price (Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D)) is 914.3, futures price is 911.4, basis is - 2.9, basis rate is - 0.32%, and historical quantile is 22.50% [1] - **Silver (AG2512)**: Spot price (Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D)) is 11169.0, futures price is 11176.0, basis is 7.0, basis rate is 0.06%, and historical quantile is 92.70% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Spot price (Jiangsu Zhangjiagang ex - factory price of ordinary protein soybean meal) is 2939.0, futures price is 2910, basis is - 29.0, basis rate is - 0.99%, and historical quantile is 30.70% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: Spot price (Jiangsu Zhangjiagang ex - factory price of grade four soybean oil) is 8480, futures price is 8332.0, basis is 148.0, basis rate is 1.78%, and historical quantile is 29.80% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Spot price (Delivery price of palm oil at Huangpu Port) is 9570.0, futures price is 9480, basis is - 90.0, basis rate is - 0.94%, and historical quantile is 5.30% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Spot price (Guangdong Zhanjiang ex - factory price of ordinary rapeseed meal) is 2540, futures price is 2435.0, basis is 105.0, basis rate is 4.31%, and historical quantile is 65.30% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (OI601)**: Spot price (Jiangsu Nantong ex - factory price of grade four rapeseed oil) is 10480, futures price is 10248.0, basis is 232.0, basis rate is 2.26%, and historical quantile is 75.00% [1] - **Corn (C2511)**: Spot price (FAS price of corn at Jinzhou Port) is 2180, futures price is 2138.0, basis is 42.0, basis rate is 1.96%, and historical quantile is 62.60% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: Spot price (Jilin Changchun ex - factory price of corn starch) is 2560, futures price is 2430.0, basis is 130.0, basis rate is 5.35%, and historical quantile is 65.70% [1] - **Live Hogs (H2511)**: Spot price (Henan ex - factory price of live hogs (external ternary)) is 11595.0, futures price is 11220, basis is 375.0, basis rate is 3.23%, and historical quantile is 31.70% [1] - **Eggs (JD2511)**: Spot price (Average price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei) is 3000, futures price is 2871.0, basis is 129.0, basis rate is 4.49%, and historical quantile is 42.50% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Spot price (Xinjiang arrival price of cotton 3128B) is 14755, futures price is 13295.0, basis is 1460.0, basis rate is 10.98%, and historical quantile is 93.10% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Spot price (Spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station) is 5870, futures price is 5528.0, basis is 342.0, basis rate is 6.19%, and historical quantile is 58.70% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: Spot price (Delivery theoretical price of apples) is 8633.0, futures price is 8600, basis is - 33.0, basis rate is - 0.38%, and historical quantile is 15.20% [1] - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Spot price (Wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei) is 10960.0, futures price is 9500, basis is - 1460.0, basis rate is - 13.32%, and historical quantile is 32.90% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX511)**: Spot price (CFR spot price at Chinese main ports, converted to RMB) is 6613.5, futures price is 6586.0, basis is 27.5, basis rate is 0.42%, and historical quantile is 31.90% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Spot price (Market price (mid - price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in East China) is 4584.0, futures price is 4510.0, basis is - 74.0, basis rate is - 1.61%, and historical quantile is 25.00% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Spot price (Market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China) is 4230.0, futures price is 4158.0, basis is 72.0, basis rate is 1.73%, and historical quantile is 84.30% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF511)**: Spot price (Market price (mainstream price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm (direct - spun)) in East China market) is 6405.0, futures price is 6292.0, basis is 113.0, basis rate is 1.80%, and historical quantile is 71.50% [1] - **Styrene (EB2511)**: Spot price (Market price in East China, China (spot benchmark price)) is 6818.0, futures price is 6790.0, basis is - 28.0, basis rate is - 0.41%, and historical quantile is 21.50% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Spot price (Market price in Jiangsu Taicang, China (spot benchmark price)) is 2290.0, futures price is 2212.5, basis is 77.5, basis rate is 3.38%, and historical quantile is 19.30% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: Spot price (Market price (mainstream price) of urea (small particles) in Shandong) is 1609.0, futures price is 1570.0, basis is - 39.0, basis rate is - 2.42%, and historical quantile is 5.30% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Spot price (Duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film grade) in Shandong) is 7203.0, futures price is 7077.0, basis is 126.0, basis rate is 1.78%, and historical quantile is 57.50% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Spot price (Duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of polypropylene PP (拉丝级, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang) is 6745.0, futures price is 6733.0, basis is - 12.0, basis rate is - 0.18%, and historical quantile is 21.10% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Spot price (Market price (mainstream price) in Changzhou market, China) is 4769.0, futures price is 4640.0, basis is - 129.0, basis rate is - 2.70%, and historical quantile is 45.50% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Spot price (Market price (mainstream price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in Shandong market, converted to 100%) is 2500.0, futures price is 2450.0, basis is 50, basis rate is 2.04%, and historical quantile is 56.50% [1] - **LPG (PG2511)**: Spot price (Market price of liquefied petroleum gas in Guangzhou) is 4548.0, futures price is 4072.0, basis is 476.0, basis rate is 11.69%, and historical quantile is 65.20% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2511)**: Spot price (Market price (mainstream price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in Shandong) is 3490.0, futures price is 3375.0, basis is 115.0, basis rate is 3.41%, and historical quantile is 75.00% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2511)**: Spot price (Distribution price in East China, China) is 11500.0, futures price is 11325.0, basis is 175.0, basis rate is 1.55%, and historical quantile is 47.20% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Spot price (Market price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe, Shahe Great Wall Glass) is 1218.0, futures price is 1128.0, basis is - 90.0, basis rate is - 7.98%, and historical quantile is 39.83% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Spot price (Market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe) is 1250.0, futures price is 1170.0, basis is - 80.0, basis rate is - 6.84%, and historical quantile is 14.04% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Spot price (Market price in Shanghai of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned whole - latex)) is 15415.0, futures price is 14650.0, basis is - 765.0, basis rate is - 5.22%, and historical quantile is 48.54% [1] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2512.CFE**: Spot price is 4689.2, futures price is 4709.5, basis is - 20.3, basis rate is - 0.43%, and historical quantile is 22.30% [1] - **IH2512.CFE**: Spot price is 3026.0, futures price is 3020.6, basis is 5.4, basis rate is 0.18%, and historical quantile is 85.30% [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Spot price is 7548.9, futures price is 7415.8, basis is - 133.1, basis rate is - 1.80%, and historical quantile is 0.60% [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Spot price is 7648.1, futures price is 7449.6, basis is - 198.5, basis rate is - 2.66%, and historical quantile is 3.70% [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **TS2512**: Spot price is 102.41, futures price is 99.96, basis is - 0.