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风险超过生产力提高,Zscaler为何仍不值得抄底?
美股研究社· 2025-04-01 12:09
Core Viewpoint - Zscaler's stock price has been on an upward trend over the past six months, driven by market sentiment and other factors, despite a deteriorating short-term outlook and weak leading indicators [1][2][16] Financial Performance - In Q2, Zscaler generated $648 million in revenue, a 23% year-over-year increase, although below the expected 25% growth [12] - The annual recurring revenue (ARR) at the end of the quarter was $2.7 billion, also reflecting a 23% year-over-year growth [12] - The remaining performance obligation (RPO) grew 28% year-over-year to $4.615 billion, while total calculated billings increased 18% to $743 million [12] - The company expects Q3 revenue to be between $665 million and $667 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 20-21% [12] Customer Growth and Retention - Zscaler saw a strong net customer increase in Q2, with the number of customers generating $100,000 in annual revenue growing by 19% and those generating $1 million growing by 28% [14] - The net retention rate improved to 115% in Q2, indicating a recovery in customer retention [14] Market Position and Strategy - Zscaler continues to promote its zero-trust model, questioning the advantages of SD-WAN and most SASE architectures, focusing on reducing attack surfaces and eliminating lateral threat propagation [4] - The upcoming device refresh cycle presents an opportunity for Zscaler to convert customers from traditional architectures [4] - The company is expanding its offerings from user protection to workloads, OT devices, and B2B users [6] Product Development and AI Integration - Zscaler views artificial intelligence as a tailwind for demand and product development, particularly in data security [10] - The company has launched AI analytics solutions, with the ACV of its AI analytics product line nearly doubling year-over-year in Q2 [10] Sales and Operational Efficiency - Zscaler has shifted to a customer-centric sales model, which initially led to sales personnel turnover but is now stabilizing with improved productivity [11] - The company is expected to continue increasing the number of sales representatives, which should support growth in the near term [11] Competitive Landscape - Zscaler faces significant competition in the SASE market, and its ability to leverage the device refresh cycle will be crucial for its architecture and customer perception [1][4] - The company is actively promoting the benefits of its zero-trust approach to attract new customers [4] Challenges and Outlook - Despite the overall improvement in investor confidence towards SaaS companies, Zscaler acknowledges that the environment remains challenging [1] - The demand environment for 2025 appears to be deteriorating, contrasting with expectations for stability or improvement in 2024 [2] - Zscaler's growth rate is slowing, but the company still has substantial long-term growth opportunities [6][19]