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集邦咨询:存储器、面板、贵金属同步涨价 预计电视生产成本承压
智通财经网· 2026-01-29 09:19
Core Insights - The television industry is facing rising costs due to increases in memory, panel, and precious metal prices, leading to a downward revision of the expected annual shipment volume for 2026 from a decrease of 0.3% to 0.6%, totaling approximately 194.81 million units [1] Group 1: Market Trends - From early 2025, television brands began stockpiling inventory due to uncertainties in international conditions, followed by inventory adjustments in the second quarter, resulting in a third-quarter shipment drop below 50 million units for the first time [3] - Despite promotional events in early 2026, such as the Super Bowl and FIFA World Cup, brands are accelerating inventory preparation due to rising prices of memory and panels, leading to a projected 2% year-on-year increase in first-quarter shipments to 46.51 million units [3] Group 2: Cost Analysis - The cost of panels constitutes approximately 40-50% of the total cost of a television, with prices starting to rise in January 2026. The supply of memory for televisions is being squeezed by demand from other applications, causing prices to increase significantly [3] - The proportion of DRAM in the bill of materials (BOM) for televisions has risen from 2.5-3% to 6-7% due to recent price adjustments, putting pressure on brand profitability, particularly for smaller players [4] Group 3: Product Development and Market Position - In 2026, favorable subsidy policies in the Chinese market will benefit Mini LED products, with major brands showcasing RGB television technology at CES 2026 and targeting more affordable sizes between 55-75 inches [4] - TrendForce has revised its forecast for Mini LED television penetration in 2026 to 10%, with shipments expected to approach 20 million units, while TCL is positioned to lead the Mini LED market with a market share exceeding 30% [4]