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中国 PCB 行业 - 规格升级、单位增长与产能扩张驱动加速;首次覆盖胜宏科技、深南电路、生益科技并给予买入评级-China PCB_ Acceleration mode with spec upgrades, unit growth, and capacity expansion; Initiate Victory Giant, WUS, Shengyi Tech at Buy
2026-01-21 02:58
Summary of Conference Call on China PCB Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) industry in China, particularly in relation to AI infrastructure and its growth potential [1][2]. Key Trends and Insights - **Higher Speed and Capacity Expansion**: The demand for higher speed connections (800G / 1.6T) in AI servers is driving an increase in PCB and CCL dollar content. This is coupled with a significant ramp-up in AI server production, leading to overall growth in the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for PCBs and CCLs [1][2]. - **Revenue Growth**: Revenue growth for companies like Victory Giant, WUS, and Shengyi Tech is projected to increase from an average of +2% in 2022 to +58% YoY in 9M25, driven by the AI infrastructure cycle [2]. - **Future Projections**: The expected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for net income (NI) for Victory Giant, WUS, and Shengyi Tech from 2026 to 2028 is forecasted at 57%, 47%, and 50% respectively, with operating profit margins (OPM) expanding to 33%, 26%, and 20% by 2028 [2]. Competitive Landscape - **Market Dynamics**: There is a debate among investors regarding the maturity of the AI infrastructure market, which could lead to slower growth and increased competition. However, the report argues that ongoing specification upgrades and the transition from copper cables to PCBs in AI servers will mitigate competitive intensity [3]. - **Customer Base Expansion**: The shift from GPU AI server clients to ASIC AI server clients is expected to increase, supported by local customer growth and strong commitments from Chinese suppliers to R&D and capacity expansion [2][3]. Financial Highlights - **Valuation and Price Targets**: - Victory Giant is initiated with a Buy rating and a target price (TP) of Rmb550, reflecting a 26.3x 2027E PE ratio and an expected +57% NI YoY growth on average in 2027-28E [36]. - WUS and Shengyi Tech are also rated Buy with target prices of Rmb127 and Rmb111 respectively, indicating strong growth potential [8]. - **Risks**: Key downside risks include slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up, increased competition, and delays in new capacity expansion [8]. Operational Efficiency - **R&D and Automation**: The companies are heavily investing in R&D and automation, which is expected to enhance yield rates, operational efficiency, and fast delivery times [37][40]. - **Financial Metrics**: The report anticipates a gross margin increase from 36% in 2025E to 42% in 2030E, driven by a product mix upgrade towards AI server PCBs [41]. Conclusion - The China PCB and CCL industry is poised for significant growth driven by the AI infrastructure boom, with key players like Victory Giant, WUS, and Shengyi Tech expected to benefit from rising demand, specification upgrades, and operational efficiencies. The overall sentiment is positive, with strong revenue and profit growth projections despite potential competitive challenges.