4 July 2025 | 3:42PM CST Greater China Technology BT substrate pricing hike in 3Q driven by raising material cost; raise TP for all substrate players Most BT substrate prices increased by 5%-20% in early 3Q, driven mainly by the tightness of the key raw material T-glass (leadtime now is 15-20 weeks+ from 3-6 weeks normally, and the price went up by 10-20% if not LTA pricing in 2Q25) and the hike in gold pricing (spot price from ~US$2,700 per ounce in early 2025 to US$3,300 per ounce now; Exhibit 2) while T- ...

美商务部取消部分对华芯片设计 EDA 工具出口限制。 据报道，随着中美实施旨在促进两国关键技术流动的贸易协议，特朗 普政府已取消了对华芯片设计软件（EDA）销售的至少部分出口许可 要求。7 月 3 日消息，新思科技（Synopsys）于当地时间 7 月 2 日宣 布，美国商务部已解除此前对该公司向中国出口的限制措施。7 月 3 日，Cadence 表示，美国已取消对中国芯片设计软件的出口限制，并 正在恢复受影响客户对软件和技术的访问。 AI 拉升 PCB 需求，CCL 需求保持高景气。 AI 的发展将深刻改变 PCB 产业链的格局。AI 产业浪潮对 PCB 数据处 理能力和可靠性方面提出更高技术要求。CCL（覆铜板）是 PCB 的核 心原材料，由树脂、玻纤布、铜箔等复合制成，直接决定 PCB 的电 气性能、机械性能和散热能力。CCL 相关公司业绩与 PCB 产业链景气 度高度绑定，尤其受益于高端 CCL（如高频高速、低损耗、ABF 基板） 需求大涨，典型企业包括建滔积层板、生益科技、华正新材等。 特朗普表示已签署 12 国关税信函，将于 7 日发出。 7 月 4 日，特朗普表示已签署 12 国关税信函，将于 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% for Ibiden's electronic components business over the next five years, driven by surging demand for GPU packaging substrates used in AI chip production [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Projections - Ibiden is expected to significantly increase its production capacity by 60-70% from 2024 to 2026, capitalizing on the historical expansion opportunities in ASICs [1][13] - The EPS forecast for Ibiden has been raised substantially through fiscal year 2028 due to the explosive growth in demand for ABF advanced packaging substrates [1] - Bank of America has upgraded its earnings expectations and 12-month target price for Ibiden, indicating strong confidence in the company's future performance [9] Group 2: Market Demand and Trends - The demand for ABF packaging substrates is closely tied to the production of AI chips, particularly Nvidia's Blackwell series, which is expected to enter a "super growth cycle" in the second half of the year [2][5] - The AI chip market, including GPUs and ASICs, is projected to grow from $126 billion in 2024 to over $400 billion by 2027, and reach at least $650 billion by 2030 [16] - The increasing reliance on ABF substrates for high-performance AI chips is driven by their superior electrical and thermal properties, which are essential for advanced packaging systems [7][8] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Nvidia's AI GPUs currently account for over 80% of Ibiden's ABF substrate sales, but the share of AI ASICs is expected to approach 20% by 2030 [9][16] - Major cloud computing giants are securing long-term orders with Ibiden and other select Taiwanese packaging manufacturers, indicating strong demand for advanced packaging solutions [9][10] - The rapid growth in AI chip shipments is forcing substrate manufacturers to expand their high-end ABF production capacity ahead of schedule to meet the increasing output [10]

转债周周谈｜成长为矛，业绩为锚 20250702 摘要 中东局势及国内政策利好驱动市场 N 型震荡，可转债因其跟涨弹性及抗 跌性优于正股，结构性行情中小微盘和银行股上涨利好转债，低利率环 境下的资金追逐加剧了涨跌不对称效应。 外部局势缓和，国内无风险利率下降，人民币预期稳定，政策支持力度 大，中美伦敦框架协议降低关税风险，人形机器人等新科技产业趋势带 来科技板块结构性机会，共同构成 7 月权益市场乐观的基础。 A 股业绩预告、中美关税谈判及国内政策窗口期是影响 7 月市场行情的 主要因素，应关注业绩确定性强的细分方向，如算力硬件、PCB 光模块、 AI 服务器、风电、军工、新消费及自主可控科技板块。 银行转债加速退出，释放资金或将回流纯债市场或寻找新的底仓，如高 YTM 剩余期限短到期正 YTM 双低转债，同时光伏行业供需格局改善， 头部公司减产及收并购或使其成为潜在底仓选择。 推荐业绩确定性强和成长性高的投资方向，包括 AI、军工、半导体、人 形机器人等科技成长板块，以及新消费和周期成长板块，如算力硬件 （景旺、华正）、半导体产业链（安吉）、军工板块（航宇、国力）等。 Q&A 6 月份的市场行情如何？ 6 ...

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [3] Core Insights - Japanese electronic component companies are distinguished by their value-added products, which are characterized by more layers and components that are smaller, thinner, lighter, and more durable [5][11] - The demand for high-performance computing and data centers is expected to accelerate due to advancements in deep learning and AI [5][11] - The automotive sector is transforming into mobile communication and sensor devices, necessitating more sophisticated components [5][11] - The rise of 5G smartphones and AI smartphones will require components that are more value-added, smaller, thinner, and lighter [5][11] - AI smartphones and AI PCs will demand higher electric power and batteries with increased capacity [5][11] Summary by Sections Market Demand - There is a growing need for value-added components in high-performance computing, AI smartphones, and automotive applications [13][14] - The server market is experiencing growth driven by AI servers that require high value-added components [31] Component Specifications - High-performance computing requires more advanced ABF (flip chip) package substrates for CPUs and GPUs [14] - The automotive sector, including ADAS and electric vehicles, requires durable components with enhanced value [14] - AI smartphones are projected to consume more electricity and necessitate batteries with higher energy density, such as silicon anode lithium batteries [14] Market Share and Growth - Murata held a 47% market share in MLCCs in 2023, an increase from 28% in 2004, showcasing its leadership in value-added products [14] - The total sales in the electronic components market for F24 reached JPY 12,548.1 billion, with significant contributions from various sectors including smartphones and automotive [16] Component Usage - The number of components required in various applications highlights the importance of MLCCs, with smartphones requiring approximately 1,000 MLCCs per device [18] - The automotive sector can require between 5,000 to 8,000 components, emphasizing the complexity and demand for high-quality parts [18] Future Trends - The shift towards Chiplets in HPC semiconductors is anticipated, which will involve more complex packaging solutions [14] - Business opportunities in the mobility industry utilizing IoT technology are expected to expand, leading to increased demand for high-performance modules [14]

Group 1 - Taiwan's authorities have placed Huawei and SMIC on an export blacklist, indicating a strong alignment with U.S. policies to suppress China's chip industry [2][13] - TSMC has already ceased orders from Huawei in 2023, and while SMIC faces equipment procurement restrictions, other mainland manufacturers are stepping in, limiting the impact on Huawei [2][6] - Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturers are heavily reliant on materials from mainland China, with over 90% of critical photolithography materials sourced from there, which poses a significant risk to their operations [4][6] Group 2 - The recent actions by Taiwan may lead to a dual loss scenario, as the U.S. has already imposed export taxes on Taiwan, and Taiwan's response could further harm its own interests [6][9] - If mainland China decides to restrict rare earth exports, it could severely impact various sectors in Taiwan, including chips, electronics, and renewable energy [6][12] - The global chip supply chain is undergoing restructuring, with efforts to relocate TSMC's operations to the U.S., but high-end packaging and silicon processing remain in Taiwan, highlighting its critical role [8][9] Group 3 - Taiwan's unilateral export control measures may backfire, potentially leading to a collapse of its chip industry if mainland China retaliates [13] - The call for "independence and self-sufficiency" in Taiwan's chip industry is undermined by its lack of control over the foundational supply chain [13][12] - The high stakes of Taiwan's current strategy could lead to severe consequences if the situation escalates, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach [12][13]

PCB 行业 - AI 算力 PCB 及高速 CCL 需求向上，供应缺口 推动高阶产能加速扩张 20250617 高阶产品对产能消耗加大，数通类 PCB 板传输速率要求提升，导致高阶 产品生产需要更多资源投入，加剧产能紧缺。AI 服务器芯片升级推动 PCB 板功能和材料层数提升，增加高阶 HDI 需求。 AI 端侧消费终端主板设计集中度提高，线宽线距缩窄，层数增加。鹏鼎 控股等企业增加资本开支，用于消费终端产品和 AI 算力产能补充，奠定 未来端侧 AI 化创新基础。 算力板及其上游材料需求情况如何？ 北美地区对 AI 算力板需求持续旺盛，从去年（2024 年）底到今年（2025 年）一季度，北美厂商通过大模型投入积累用户量，其资本开支和上游指引仍 然保持良好状态。英伟达链公司的业绩释放明显修复，其中胜宏等公司因其在 英伟达体系内计算板和交换板份额较大，业绩弹性显著。此外，高密度互连 HDI 板的几家公司，如生益电子、固电等，也有不错的业绩体现。 高阶 HDI 及高速多层板产能扩张情况如何？ 摘要 PCB 行业受益于算力需求激增，服务器端 PCB 厂商稼动率维持高位，头 部企业加速扩张高阶 HDI 和高速多层 ...

国内企业积极配套，验证持续顺利推进。 目前台湾企业仍然是高端ABF载板的主要供应商，大陆企业兴森 科技已批量供应20层以下载板，针对更高层数的产品，验证和小批量等持续推进，后续有望实现突破。 风险提示。 贸易摩擦的不确定性；新产品验证进度不及预期的风险。 报告导读： 中国台湾收紧部分高科技产品的出口管控，自主可控加速推进。昇腾全链条 自主可控迫切，ABF载板国产化提速。 中国台湾的国际贸易署将中芯、华为等实体列入清单，报道称台湾企业未经允许禁止向受管制实体进行出 口。 根据中国台湾国际贸易署网站中公告原文："国际贸易署近日召开跨部会实体清单审查会议，于本 （6）月10日发布，新增俄罗斯、巴基斯坦、伊朗、缅甸、中国大陆涉及武扩活动等601个实体，其中亦包 括华为、中芯等中资企业。倘欲出口到实体名单中受管制实体，应事先取得国际贸易署核发的战略性高科 技货品输出许可证，凭证出口。海关将协助执行边境拦查，倘有业者在未经许可拟出口实体名单之对象， 海关将不予放行。" 昇腾全链条自主可控迫切，ABF载板国产化有望提速。 目前ABF载板是昇腾链条中少数尚未完全自主可控 的环节。中国台湾厂商占据ABF市场主要份额；中国大陆厂 ...

Abacus Global Management (ABL) 2025 Investor Day June 12, 2025 09:30 AM ET Speaker0 To our presentation today. And at Abacus, Abacus is continuing to grow and expand and take a look at a business model that started in one area related to life insurance policies and sourcing those and educating people around the value of their life insurance policies to asset management to potentially private wealth management and then capitalizing on all the lifespan data and technology that we've been able to do and instit ...

特种玻纤的稀缺性被证明，认知继续提升中本周变化主要集中于玻纤领域： 1）LowCTE玻纤布紧缺。 全球BT载板用基材龙头日本三菱瓦斯近日向客户发出延迟交付通知，交期延长至4-5个月。 台积电CoWoS先进封装需求火爆，推动AIGPU所用的ABF载板材料供应紧张，现在进一步向BT载板蔓延。 在载板基材价格上涨的预期之下，上游LowCTE玻纤布亦可能存上涨预期。 【LowCTE玻纤布龙头当前订单的价格已高于日东纺前期销售价格】 特种玻纤的稀缺性被证明，认知继续提升中本周变化主要集中于玻纤领域： 1）LowCTE玻纤布紧缺。 全球BT载板用基材龙头日本三菱瓦斯近日向客户发出延迟交付通知，交期延长至4-5个月。 台积电CoWoS先进封装需求火爆，推动AIGPU所用的ABF载板材料供应紧张，现在进一步向BT载板蔓延。 在载板基材价格上涨的预期之下，上游LowCTE玻纤布亦可能存上涨预期。 3）存量链，首选三棵树兔宝宝北新建材等，尽管当前市场预期较低，但Q2三棵树、兔宝宝等存量龙头经营改 善。 2）日东纺复合材料事业部提价。 日东纺6月2日发布涨价函，针对复合材料事业部提价20%，复合材料事业部产品包括罗纹布、短切纱、短 ...