Economic Overview - The government shutdown has created a lack of official data, leaving the Federal Reserve uncertain about the labor market and economy [1] - Despite this uncertainty, financial markets, particularly the S&P 500, have reached multiple record highs [1] Labor Market Insights - The September ADP employment report indicates a softening labor market, with a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, following a loss of 3,000 in August [4] - This marks the first occurrence of back-to-back job losses in the private sector since the pandemic's initial aftermath in 2020 [4] - The leisure and hospitality sector was notably affected, losing 19,000 jobs, which accounted for over 50% of the total job loss [5] - Job openings increased slightly in August to 7.227 million, surpassing expectations, but the job openings-to-unemployed-workers ratio remains below 1.0 for the second consecutive month [6][7] - Other labor metrics, including hire and quit rates, are trending downward, with the hire rate at its lowest since April 2020 [8] Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell for the second month in a row, dropping 3.2 points to 94.2, below the forecast of 96.0 [9] - This decline reflects worsening views on current job availability and business conditions, although there is some optimism regarding future income [10] Market Performance - The S&P 500 achieved a six-day winning streak, closing the week with a 1.1% gain, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust also rose by 1.1% [11] - The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.13%, and the 2-year note finished at 3.58% [11] Federal Reserve Outlook - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 95% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting, with additional cuts anticipated in December and 2026 [12] Upcoming Economic Data - The upcoming week will feature key indicators such as trade balance figures and weekly unemployment claims, with the September BLS employment report pending due to the government shutdown [13]