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ATI(ATI) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-01 12:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues grew 10% year over year, exceeding $1,100,000,000 for the quarter [5][19] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $195,000,000, surpassing the top end of guidance by $15,000,000 [5][20] - Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.72, beating the guidance range of $0.55 to $0.61 [5][20] - Free cash flow usage was $143,000,000, lower than Q1 2024 and modestly favorable to 2025 estimates [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aerospace and Defense (A&D) represented 66% of total revenue in Q1, with defense sales growing 11% year over year [17][15] - Commercial jet engine sales grew 35% year over year, accounting for 37% of total Q1 revenue [12][13] - Airframe business represented 18% of Q1 revenue, with strong demand for titanium capabilities [14] - HPMC margins increased by 400 basis points year over year, driven by A&D core strength [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Industrial markets, representing approximately 20% of total business, are experiencing a wait-and-see posture from some customers [11] - Tariffs announced in 2025 represent approximately $50,000,000 in annual cost exposure prior to offsets, but minimal impact on full year earnings is anticipated [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on high-value A&D applications, with a strategic evolution validated by a reclassification to aerospace and defense [17] - Plans to repurchase up to $250,000,000 in shares in Q2, reflecting confidence in current share price [8][29] - The company is leveraging a diversified global supply chain to manage costs effectively amid trade uncertainties [9][52] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains confident in A&D demand, with robust backlogs and no cancellations reported [11][26] - The company anticipates Q2 results to mirror Q1, with growth expected later in the year [25] - Full year adjusted EBITDA guidance is affirmed at $800,000,000 to $840,000,000, with EPS guidance increased to $2.87 to $3.09 per share [25][30] Other Important Information - A new five-year agreement with Airbus worth approximately $1,000,000,000 was signed, significantly increasing participation [87][110] - The company has secured long-term contracts for critical alloys, ensuring supply stability into the next decade [113][116] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more color on aftermarket or MRO contribution to A&D growth this quarter? - Management noted strong demand from MRO, running at 40% to 50%, with expectations to double revenue from the GTF program in 2025 [36][38] Question: Do you think the U.S. and Ukraine mineral deal could impact ATI's sourcing of feedstock? - Management believes it could be positive in the long term, but not in the near term, as historical partnerships need qualification [44] Question: Can you elaborate on pricing at HPMC? - Pricing for titanium and nickel increased by 6% to 7% year over year, with long-term agreements allowing for price increases [49][50] Question: What offsets are in place for the $50,000,000 tariff impact? - Management highlighted a diversified supply chain, cost management, and contract mechanisms to mitigate tariff impacts [51][52][54] Question: Does the reiterated guide include contingencies for softer sales in industrial markets? - Yes, the guidance includes built-in risks related to industrial ordering patterns [63] Question: Can you discuss the growth of the isothermal forgings business? - The isothermal forgings business has grown substantially, with lead times extending into 2027 and expectations to exceed $1,000,000,000 in revenue this year [95] Question: What is the duration of contracts for sole source alloys? - Contracts for critical alloys extend into the middle of the next decade, with high barriers to entry for competitors [113][116]