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江海股份 - 管理层确认元宇宙边缘数据中心(Meta EDC)订单,但进一步上行空间高度不确定;维持中性
2025-09-03 01:22
Summary of Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co. (002484.SZ) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co. (002484.SZ) - **Industry**: Industrial Technology & Machinery - **Market Cap**: Rmb31.2 billion / $4.4 billion - **Enterprise Value**: Rmb30.4 billion / $4.3 billion - **Current Price**: Rmb36.64 - **12-Month Price Target**: Rmb28.50, indicating a downside of 22% [1][3][29] Financial Performance - **2Q25 Results**: - Revenue: Rmb1,536 million (+17% YoY) - Gross Profit: Rmb390 million (+14% YoY) - EBIT: Rmb225 million (+11% YoY) - Net Profit: Rmb206 million (-2% YoY) - Gross Margin: 25%, Operating Margin: 15%, Net Margin: 13% [1][14] - **Revised Financial Projections**: - 2025-30E EPS revised up by 4-41% - 2026E target multiple revised from 15x to 25x - New EPS CAGR projected at 19% for 2025-30E [1][29] Key Developments - **EDLC Order from Meta**: - Confirmed receipt of an Electric Double Layer Capacitor (EDLC) order from Meta, expected to contribute approximately Rmb300 million in revenue in 2026, with a market share of around 30% [1][16]. - Jianghai's supercapacitor performance, particularly in Equivalent Series Resistance (ESR), lags behind German competitor Skeleton [1][16]. - **Market Share and Revenue Projections**: - Expected revenue from EDLC could range from Rmb285 million to Rmb495 million in 2026-30E [16]. - Projected market share for Jianghai in Lithium-ion Capacitors (LIC) is only 1%-10%, with expected revenue of Rmb62 million to Rmb825 million [17]. Product Insights - **Supercapacitor Applications**: - Supercapacitors serve critical functions in data centers, providing emergency power and stabilizing power loads in high-performance computing environments [14][16]. - Two types of supercapacitors discussed: EDLC (lower energy density, easier thermal management) and LIC (higher energy density, longer backup duration) [16]. - **Revenue Contribution from Capacitors**: - Aluminum electrolytic capacitors and supercapacitors are expected to contribute 6-8% and 5-11% of firmwide revenue respectively by 2026-30E [29][19]. Risks and Considerations - **Market Uncertainties**: - Despite bullish outlooks for new revenue drivers, uncertainties remain regarding market share sustainability and competitive product quality [1][29]. - Risks include fluctuations in market share for supercapacitors and variations in demand for EDLC/LIC per rack [38]. Conclusion - **Rating**: Neutral - **Investment Thesis**: Jianghai is a leading supplier in aluminum electrolytic capacitors, expanding into supercapacitor products. The company has a strong industrial client base and vertical integration advantages, but faces challenges in maintaining market share against global competitors [36][29].