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CPKC(CP) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-01-28 22:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, revenue was CAD 3.9 billion, up 1% year-over-year, with an operating ratio of 55.9, reflecting a 120 basis point improvement. Earnings per share (EPS) was CAD 1.33, up 3% from the previous year [6][29] - For the full year 2025, revenue reached CAD 15.1 billion, a 4% increase, with a volume growth of 4%. The operating ratio improved by 140 basis points to 59.9, and core EPS was CAD 4.61, up 8% [7][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the bulk segment, record grain revenues increased by 4% on 2% volume growth, driven by a record harvest in Canada [20] - Potash revenues decreased by 2% despite a 2% volume growth, while coal revenue increased by 2% despite a 1% decline in volumes [22][23] - The merchandise franchise saw a 3% decline in energy, chemicals, and plastics revenue due to lower volumes, while automotive revenue decreased by 3% despite a 1% volume growth [24][25] - Intermodal revenue increased by 3% on 4% volume growth, with international intermodal volumes up 5% [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Canadian grain volumes were up 2% due to a record harvest, while U.S. grain volumes also increased by 2% [20] - The North American crop for 2026 is expected to be a record, with estimates of an 85 million metric ton Canadian harvest, up 20% from last year [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for mid-single-digit volume growth in 2026, driven by strength in the bulk business and unique growth drivers [8] - Continued investment in capital, including 100 new locomotives in 2026, supports growth and operational efficiency [11] - The company is focused on executing its Precision Scheduled Railroading (PSR) model to maintain competitive advantages [8][34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving low double-digit earnings growth in 2026, despite macroeconomic uncertainties [34] - The company highlighted its strong operational performance and cost control measures in response to demand softness [28] Other Important Information - The company announced a new 5% share repurchase program for 2026, reflecting its commitment to returning cash to shareholders [34] - The operating team achieved record safety performance, with a train accident frequency of 0.91, which is 12% better than the previous year [15][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the mid-single-digit volume growth assumption? - Management acknowledged challenges in Q1 but expressed optimism about grain volumes and synergies from previous wins contributing to growth [38][39] Question: What are the implications of reciprocal switching proposals? - Management indicated that providing good service mitigates concerns about competition from reciprocal switching, emphasizing the importance of service quality [46][47] Question: How does the company view the operating ratio potential moving forward? - Management aims for continuous improvement in operating ratio, targeting around 100 basis points of improvement per year with strong volume and pricing [51][56] Question: What impact might the harbor maintenance tax exemption have on cross-border volumes? - Management noted that cross-border volume is currently a small part of the business, so changes in the harbor maintenance tax are not a significant concern [77] Question: What are the updated thoughts on M&A and the recent application rejection? - Management reiterated that the rejection highlights the complexity of mergers and the need for factual support for any future applications [81][82]