Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) has demonstrated strong growth in network volume, achieving a year-over-year increase of 10.5% for the nine months ending September 30, 2025 [1][11] Business Model and Expansion - PGY has diversified its business model beyond personal loans, expanding into auto lending and point-of-sale financing, which has been a key driver of network volume growth [2][11] - The company has improved its credit trends and diversified its funding sources, including more forward flow deals and asset-backed securities (ABS) issuance, which enhances flexibility and reduces reliance on a single funding source [3][11] Financial Performance - The increase in network volume has led to a 26.7% year-over-year rise in network AI fees during the first nine months of 2025, contributing to a total revenue growth of 28.4% year-over-year [4][11] - For the full year 2025, PGY anticipates network volume to reach between $10.5 billion and $10.75 billion, supported by advancements in AI credit models and a scalable ABS platform [5] Market Position and Valuation - PGY's stock has surged by 132.8% this year, contrasting with a 10.1% decline in the industry, indicating strong investor confidence [10] - Currently, PGY trades at a 12-month forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.13X, significantly below the industry average of 2.92X over the past three years [12] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY's earnings has increased to $3.10 for 2025 and $3.41 for 2026, reflecting year-over-year growth projections of 273.5% and 10%, respectively [13]

Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) and OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF) are consumer finance companies targeting subprime and non-prime borrowers, with Pagaya leveraging AI for credit underwriting and securitization, while OneMain operates through physical and digital lending channels [1][2] Group 1: Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) - Pagaya has a flexible business model that initially focused on personal loans but has since diversified into auto lending and point-of-sale financing, enhancing resilience across economic cycles [3] - The company has established a network of over 135 institutional partners and utilizes forward flow agreements to ensure funding stability during market disruptions [4] - Pagaya's proprietary technology allows lenders to present pre-approved offers to customers without formal applications, enhancing credit access with minimal marketing costs [5] - The company operates with minimal on-balance-sheet exposure, acquiring loans through asset-backed securities (ABS) or forward flow agreements, which limits credit and market risk [6] - Pagaya's model has proven effective from 2021 to 2023, maintaining liquidity and minimizing loan write-downs amid rising rates and tighter markets [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY's revenues indicates year-over-year growth of 23.6% in 2025 and 18.3% in 2026, with earnings expected to jump 202.4% and 26.7% in the same years [18] Group 2: OneMain Holdings, Inc. (OMF) - OneMain operates 1,300 locations across 47 states, providing unsecured and secured personal installment loans for various personal needs, along with optional insurance products [8] - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a loan mix designed for sustainability and upside potential, frequently securitizing portions of its loan book to manage funding costs [9] - OneMain's rigorous underwriting and servicing, supported by centralized data analytics, help manage credit performance, even during economic downturns [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OMF's revenues implies a modest year-over-year increase of 7.4% in 2025 and 7.5% in 2026, with earnings growth projected at 26.4% for 2025 and 29.4% for 2026 [20] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Year-to-date, Pagaya's stock has surged 234.7%, while OneMain's has gained 13.5%, indicating stronger investor sentiment towards Pagaya [12] - In terms of valuation, Pagaya trades at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 5.34X, compared to OneMain's 2.15X, suggesting Pagaya is more expensive [13][14] - Pagaya's return on equity (ROE) stands at 20.88%, slightly above OneMain's 20.77%, indicating marginally better efficiency in generating profits [14] - Pagaya's compelling growth trajectory and strong revenue and earnings prospects position it as a high-upside investment opportunity compared to OneMain's established marketplace model [22][23]