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Pagaya Q2 Earnings on the Cards: A Smart Buy or Risky Bet?
ZACKSยท 2025-08-04 17:00
Core Insights - Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) is set to announce its second-quarter 2025 earnings on August 7, with expectations of strong performance based on previous results [1][5] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY's second-quarter revenues is $323.8 million, reflecting a 29.4% year-over-year increase [2][5] - The company has seen an 11.3% upward revision in earnings estimates for the upcoming quarter, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 69 cents [2][5] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - Total revenues and other income for PGY are anticipated to be between $290 million and $310 million, supported by improved economics in personal loan and auto verticals [7][8] - Fee revenues are expected to reach $306 million, indicating a 25.9% year-over-year rise [4][5] - The network volume is estimated at $2.53 billion, which represents a 10% growth from the prior-year quarter [6] Earnings Surprise History - Pagaya has a mixed earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in only two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 12.9% [3][4] Growth Strategy - The company's growth strategy includes expanding product offerings, enhancing monetization of existing partnerships, and adding new enterprise lending partners, particularly large U.S. banks and auto captives [7][18] Market Performance and Valuation - PGY shares have outperformed the S&P 500 Index and key peers like LendingTree and LendingClub in the second quarter [11] - The stock is currently trading at a trailing 12-month price/book (P/B) ratio of 5.00X, which is above the industry average of 3.58X [15][17] Business Model Resilience - Pagaya's business model is characterized by its adaptability, having diversified beyond personal loans into auto lending and point-of-sale financing, which reduces exposure to cyclical risks [18] - The company has established a robust network of over 135 institutional funding partners to support its asset-backed securities, enhancing liquidity stability [19]