Core Insights - The investment landscape in 2025 has been heavily influenced by the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) companies, leading to significant market gains across major indices, with the S&P 500 up 17.88% and the Russell 2000 up 12.81% [4] - There is a growing concern about a potential market bubble, as high-quality businesses have underperformed low-quality ones, particularly in the small-cap sector [6][7] - AI-related stocks have dramatically impacted the S&P 500, accounting for 45% of its market cap and 78% of its returns since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 [12][15] Investment Performance - FMI's portfolios have generated solid double-digit annual returns over the past three years but have lagged behind broader indices due to a focus on business quality and valuation [5] - The disparity in performance between high-quality and low-quality stocks has been stark, with low-quality stocks outperforming significantly in 2025 [6][7] Market Dynamics - The MSCI EAFE Quality Index has underperformed the MSCI EAFE by approximately 10% in both local and USD terms, indicating a broader trend of low-quality stocks outperforming in international markets as well [8] - The capital spending in the tech sector, particularly related to AI, has contributed significantly to U.S. GDP growth, accounting for 40%-45% through the first nine months of 2025, a stark increase from less than 5% in the same period of 2023 [18] Company Insights - Hayward Holdings Inc. is highlighted as a resilient small-cap company in the pool equipment market, with strong pricing power and a solid balance sheet, despite facing weak demand in the newly built and remodeled pool segments [26] - Accenture PLC is positioned to benefit from the AI boom, as its consulting services are increasingly in demand for enterprises adopting AI technologies, despite facing cyclical pressures [30] - Smiths Group PLC is transitioning to a more focused portfolio, improving its growth and profitability profile while maintaining a strong balance sheet [31] AI Impact - The concentration of AI-related stocks in the S&P 500 raises concerns about market sustainability, as these stocks have driven a significant portion of market returns and earnings growth [12][15] - The capital intensity of AI companies is increasing, with expectations that they will need to generate $2 trillion in revenue by 2030 to meet demand, which may not be achievable [21]

Company Overview - Hayward Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:HAYW) is a leading global pool equipment manufacturer, primarily serving the residential pool market, with North America accounting for 85% of sales and over 90% of profits [3] - The company offers a range of products including Pumps, Automation and Sanitization, Heaters, Filters, Lighting and Water Features, and Cleaners [3] - Approximately 80% of total sales come from the existing installed base of pools, with 50% attributed to repair and replacement, making the business relatively resilient to economic cycles [3] Financial Performance - Hayward Holdings, Inc. has demonstrated strong margins and cash-generation potential, leading the fund to view the stock as undervalued relative to mid-cycle earnings [2] - The stock's one-month return was approximately 5.51%, and it gained about 11.59% over the last 12 months, closing at approximately $16.85 per share on January 16, 2026, with a market capitalization of about $3.65 billion [2] Market Dynamics - The pool industry experienced supercharged growth during the early stages of COVID-19, followed by a period of weak end-market demand exacerbated by destocking in the distribution channel [3] - Although the industry has stabilized, there is still lackluster demand for newly built and remodeled pools, but it is expected that the discretionary sides of the business will recover over time [3] - Hayward is positioned to continue raising prices and growing volumes within the installed base of pools due to strong pricing power, as purchase decisions are typically made by pool service professionals who are less sensitive to price [3]