Autoship subscription model
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Can Chewy Continue to Build Momentum in Active Customer Expansion?
ZACKSยท 2025-10-27 18:51
Core Insights - Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) demonstrated strong customer growth in Q2 of fiscal 2025, ending with 20.9 million active customers, a 4.5% increase year-over-year, indicating effective engagement and retention strategies [1][10] Customer Growth and Sales Performance - The Autoship subscription model significantly contributed to sales, generating $2.58 billion, which accounted for 83% of total net sales in Q2, marking a nearly 15% year-over-year increase [2][10] - Net Sales Per Active Customer increased by 4.6% year-over-year to $591, reflecting improved customer spending and loyalty [2] Membership and Product Launches - Chewy's paid membership program, Chewy+, has shown strong performance, contributing approximately 3% of monthly sales, with members displaying higher purchase frequency and loyalty [3] - The launch of "Get Real," an exclusive fresh dog food brand, has expanded Chewy's private-label offerings, catering to the rising demand for premium pet nutrition [4] Future Outlook - Management is optimistic about sustaining active customer growth through continued investments in Autoship, Chewy+, and private brands, raising full-year revenue guidance to $12.5-$12.6 billion, representing 7-8% growth [5] Competitive Positioning - Chewy's net sales growth has outperformed key competitors such as Central Garden & Pet Company (CENT) and Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc. (WOOF) [6] - Central Garden & Pet reported a 4% decline in net sales to $961 million, while Petco's net sales decreased by 2.3% to $1.49 billion [7][8] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Chewy's shares have increased by 4.8% year-to-date, compared to the industry's growth of 9.7% [9] - The company trades at a trailing price-to-sales ratio of 1.22X, below the industry average of 2.69X, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate indicating a 22.1% year-over-year earnings growth for fiscal 2025 [11][12]