Core Viewpoint - The Moscow Exchange (MOEX) plans to expand its cryptocurrency offerings in 2026 by launching new futures contracts linked to major digital assets such as Solana, Ripple, and Tron [1][2][3] Group 1: New Product Launches - MOEX will introduce three new crypto indices that reflect the price dynamics of Solana, Ripple, and Tron, followed by futures contracts based on these indices [2][3] - The exchange currently offers futures on Bitcoin and Ethereum and aims to broaden its crypto pairings with top market names [3] Group 2: Index Foundation for Futures - Futures contracts on crypto assets require underlying indices as reference prices, which MOEX currently provides for Bitcoin and Ethereum [4][5] - The indices are calculated according to a transparent methodology and are published on the exchange's website [5] Group 3: Contract Specifications - The new futures contracts will be cash-settled, similar to existing Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts, and will expire monthly [6] - These contracts will comply with current Bank of Russia regulations and will only be available to qualified investors [6] Group 4: Future Considerations - MOEX is also considering the introduction of perpetual futures and options for major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, after expanding its range of futures pairs [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent 12% drop in gold prices and 33% decline in silver prices was primarily driven by mechanical factors related to overleveraged cryptocurrency positions rather than fundamental changes in the precious metals market [1][2][21]. Group 1: Causes of the Drop - A significant $1.68 billion wave of cryptocurrency margin calls triggered forced selling across various markets, leading to a chain reaction that affected gold and silver prices [2][4]. - Regulatory actions, including margin requirement increases by the CME Group and the Shanghai Gold Exchange, contributed to the selling pressure in precious metals [10][12]. - The mechanics of trading algorithms and portfolio margin accounts exacerbated the situation, forcing traders to liquidate positions in gold and silver to cover losses in cryptocurrencies [5][8][15]. Group 2: Impact of the Drop - Approximately 79% of the gold price decline was attributed to mechanical factors, with only 21% reflecting genuine market re-evaluation based on Federal Reserve policy [21][24]. - The forced liquidation of overleveraged positions resulted in a temporary market dysfunction, creating potential investment opportunities for long-term buyers [24][25]. - The market structure breakdown was evident in the ETF market, where the iShares Silver Trust traded at a significant premium, indicating a lack of liquidity and market maker participation [18][20]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The crash has reset the market, removing over-extended traders and allowing for a more stable trading environment moving forward [23][25]. - Long-term demand for precious metals remains strong, with countries like Poland and China continuing to increase their reserves [23]. - The next rally in precious metals is expected to be driven by fundamental demand rather than speculative trading, indicating a healthier market evolution [23].

Core Insights - CME has lost its position as the leading exchange for bitcoin futures open interest, with Binance now holding approximately 125,000 BTC ($11.2 billion) compared to CME's 123,000 BTC ($11 billion) [1] Group 1: Open Interest Trends - CME's open interest started the year at 175,000 BTC but has declined due to reduced profitability in the basis trade, where traders buy spot bitcoin and sell futures [2] - Binance's open interest has remained stable throughout the year, appealing to retail traders betting on price movements [2] Group 2: Historical Context - A year ago, CME's open interest peaked at 200,000 BTC as prices approached $100,000, with an annualized basis rate of around 15%, which has now decreased to approximately 5% [3] - The decline in the basis rate indicates diminishing returns for institutional basis traders [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - As spot and futures prices converge, arbitrage opportunities are diminishing, impacting CME's previous dominance in bitcoin futures open interest [4] - CME had been the largest exchange since November 2023, driven by institutional positioning ahead of the anticipated launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, but this advantage appears to have diminished [4]

Core Insights - Tidal Trust II has filed with the SEC for a Bitcoin ETF aimed at providing exposure during US market closures, amidst concerns of price manipulation and heavy outflows in the spot BTC ETF market [1][6] Group 1: ETF Filing Details - The Form N-1A proposes the addition of two ETFs: Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF, and Nicholas Bitcoin Tail ETF [2] - The AfterDark ETF will not hold Bitcoin directly but will gain exposure through Bitcoin futures, options, and ETFs or ETPs listed in the US [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The fund aims for long-term capital appreciation by targeting Bitcoin's overnight return profile while holding short-term US Treasuries and cash equivalents during daytime trading [3] - The fund will trade Bitcoin futures during US overnight hours and close positions shortly after the US market opens, while also utilizing Bitcoin options to establish synthetic long positions [4] Group 3: Market Context and Analyst Commentary - Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst noted that a significant portion of Bitcoin's gains occurs during after-hours trading, suggesting that the AfterDark ETF could potentially yield better returns [5] - Industry analysts have raised concerns about price manipulation during US daytime trading, with observed patterns of Bitcoin price drops around market openings [6]

CBOE TO OPEN 10-YEAR “CONTINUOUS FUTURES” FOR BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM- Cboe Futures Exchange will open a new chapter in U.S. crypto derivatives on December 15, 2025.- The exchange plans to list long-dated “continuous futures” for Bitcoin and Ethereum, offering traders a new way to hold exposure without rolling contracts each month.What Sets These Contracts Apart- These futures run on a 10-year timetable from the day they list. A daily cash adjustment keeps the price tied to the spot market.- This structure giv ...

🚨UPDATE: CBOE FUTURES EXCHANGE WILL LAUNCH NEW 10-YEAR “CONTINUOUS FUTURES” FOR BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM ON DEC. 15 ...

Market Trend - CBOE (芝加哥期权交易所) 将提供“连续”比特币和以太坊期货 [1]

Market Reaction - Stocks are experiencing a pullback, influenced by comments from CEOs David Solomon and Ted Pick regarding a potential 10% to 20% correction over the next one to two years [1][2] - A 10% to 15% correction in a bull market is considered normal and could be a healthy sign for the market, allowing for reassessment of valuations [2][3] Market Conditions - Recent trading sessions have shown a spike in the repo market, indicating that some financial institutions may need capital, leading to increased high-yield credit spreads [4] - Despite the pullback, the market is still making higher highs and higher lows, maintaining the 20-day moving average for the S&P 500 [5] Volatility and Seasonal Trends - The VIX index is currently at 18, with expectations of a correction being discussed for some time [7] - November is traditionally a good month for stocks, raising questions about the duration of the current market conditions [7] Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is in its 35th day, with a lack of economic data potentially reducing market volatility [9][10] - As the holiday season approaches, the impact of the shutdown may prompt Congress to negotiate a deal, affecting market sentiment [12] Federal Reserve Outlook - The labor market is a primary focus for Federal Reserve members, with indications that hiring is slowing, which may influence future monetary policy [13][15] - Market expectations suggest that a rate cut in December remains a possibility due to current economic trajectories [14] Company Focus: Humana - Humana is highlighted as a company to watch, particularly due to its exposure to Medicare and potential market share gains from United Health [18][20] - The stock is showing a bullish technical pattern, and a strong earnings report could positively impact the broader health insurance sector [19][20] Company Focus: Chemico (CCJ) - Chemico is noted for its involvement in uranium deals with the U.S. government, with potential for additional partnerships being a key point of interest [21][22] - The company's operations in Kazakhstan and Canada may benefit from reduced Russian uranium supplies, presenting a favorable outlook [22]

Market Trends - CME Bitcoin futures basis is at 198%, the lowest since late 2022 [1] - Bitcoin trades at $108 thousand, but futures barely command a 2% premium over spot [1] - The last time the basis was this compressed, BTC was sub $20 thousand [1] Investment Flows - TradFi rotates out through futures first, ETFs second, spot last [1] - The exit sequence has already started [1]

Core Insights - The introduction of futures contracts for Solana and XRP by CME Group has led to significant growth in these smaller cryptocurrencies, benefiting from improved infrastructure and liquidity [1][2] - Solana and XRP have experienced record open interest in futures contracts, reaching approximately $3 billion in outstanding contracts, indicating strong market participation [2][4] - Individual investors are increasingly participating in the futures market, broadening the base of market participants beyond financial institutions [3] Market Performance - Solana and XRP futures achieved $1 billion in notional open interest in August, with Solana futures doubling their open interest in just 18 days [4] - In October, Solana futures averaged nearly $700 million in daily trading volume on a notional basis, showcasing robust trading activity [4] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory clarity in the U.S. has attracted more market participants, enabling strategies like basis trading that capitalize on price differences between spot and future prices [6] - The launch of exchange-traded products (ETFs) tied to Solana and XRP has further facilitated these trading strategies, allowing for greater market engagement [6]