A record $31 billion in Bitcoin options expire on Halloween as traders brace for volatility amid all-time high open interest and Fed rate cut expectations.Read more: https://t.co/QNLxMyRT0O ...

There’s roughly $31 billion worth of Bitcoin options set to expire on Halloween next week. That’s a record-high monthly expiry, beating last month’s $18 billion by a wide margin, despite the record-setting liquidation event that followed the Oct. 10 flash crash when $19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out. “That event erased roughly $7 billion in BTC options open interest, bringing total open interest down from about $38 billion to near $31 billion, the sharpest weekly contraction since June,” B ...

Core Insights - Nearly $6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire, leading to increased bearish sentiment among traders [1] - The market is experiencing heightened uncertainty, with a significant focus on downside risks as traders prepare for potential further losses [1][4] Bitcoin Market Analysis - Bitcoin is currently trading around $108,969, just above key support levels, with traders pricing in more downside risk [2] - The put-to-call ratio stands at 0.83, with total open interest of 43,905 BTC and a notional value exceeding $4.79 billion [2] - The max pain point is near $116,000, indicating that traders expect limited short-term upside potential [2] Options Market Dynamics - Over $1.15 billion has flowed into short-term out-of-the-money puts, accounting for approximately 28% of total options volume [3] - The options skew has turned sharply negative, reflecting the highest demand for downside protection since the market's pullback on the 11th [3] Market Sentiment and Positioning - Market makers and liquidity providers are positioning aggressively for a potential retracement, indicating growing anxiety about broader market stability [4] - The current sentiment suggests that hedging via puts is the most prudent strategy amid ongoing political and macroeconomic turbulence [4] Ethereum Market Analysis - Ethereum is trading at $3,921, just below its max pain level of $4,100, with open interest at 251,884 ETH and a put-to-call ratio of 0.81 [5] - Broader sentiment in the crypto market remains cautiously bearish, with traders eyeing $93,500 as a potential bottom and $100,000 as a short-term upside target [5] External Factors Impacting Market - Part of the market unease is attributed to the Selini Capital crisis, which reportedly resulted in a $50 million loss due to a failed basis trade unwind [6]

Group 1 - Over $5.6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire today, leading to increased volatility as traders face critical support levels [1][2] - Bitcoin options dominate the expiry with a notional value of $4.7 billion, and the max pain price is identified at $118,000, indicating a crucial support area [3][4] - The total open interest for Bitcoin options is 38,870 contracts, with traders divided between $110,000 puts and $120,000 calls, reflecting a standoff between bullish and bearish sentiments [4][6] Group 2 - Ethereum options expiring today amount to $944.5 million, with a max pain price of $4,400 and an open interest nearing 217,000 [5][6] - The current expiry is significantly higher than the previous week's $4.3 billion, causing both retail and institutional traders to be on edge [6] - The put-to-call ratio for Ethereum is at 0.90, indicating a more bullish outlook compared to Bitcoin's ratio of 1.10, which shows a preference for downside protection [4][6] Group 3 - Bitcoin is trading above its short-term holder cost basis, suggesting ongoing bullish momentum but also raising short-term risk of a potential correction [8][9] - Rising open interest in Ethereum indicates increased trader participation ahead of potential market-moving shifts [8]

Core Insights - The Bitcoin options market has expanded significantly, now influencing the price of bitcoin itself, with open interest reaching nearly $80 billion, up from around $8 billion at the start of the year [1][3] - Options activity has transitioned from a secondary signal to a primary input for market participants, providing insights into future price movements rather than just current prices [4] Market Dynamics - The growth in options is driven by two main platforms: Deribit, favored by crypto-native traders for its short-dated options, and BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which has quickly gained traction among institutional investors [5] - The trading profiles differ, with Deribit attracting hedge funds seeking volatility and IBIT appealing to pension funds and asset managers looking for long-term exposure [6] Volatility Trends - Implied volatility has trended lower, indicating a potential complacency in the market, but the spread between implied and realized volatility suggests that option sellers are still earning typical premiums [7] - The divergence in volatility between bitcoin and ether indicates differing market dynamics, with ether's implied volatility remaining firmer due to staking and DeFi flows, while bitcoin's has decreased due to selling pressure from miners [8] Strategic Importance - Crypto options have evolved into a vital market signal, with traders and risk managers increasingly monitoring both Deribit for short-term risks and IBIT for long-term institutional strategies [9]

Group 1: Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) has surpassed the $120,000 mark for the first time in weeks, but faces a significant test with over $4.3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring today [1][2] - The total open interest for expiring Bitcoin options is 27,962 contracts, with a put-to-call ratio (PCR) of 1.13, indicating a slightly bearish sentiment [2][3] - Ethereum options expiring today amount to $974.3 million, with 216,210 contracts outstanding and a PCR of 0.93, suggesting a more neutral sentiment compared to Bitcoin [4] Group 2: Max Pain Levels - The max pain point for Bitcoin is $115,000, which is the level where most options are expected to expire worthless, potentially influencing price action [2][5] - For Ethereum, the max pain level is $4,200, aligning with the notional value of the expiring options [4][5] - Traders closely monitor these max pain levels as they can act as a gravitational pull on price leading into expiries [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current trading environment is characterized by extreme volatility, with analysts noting that traders are often caught off-guard by sudden intraday price swings of around 3% [7] - Many active traders may find themselves with breakeven or losing positions due to the choppy market conditions, despite high trading activity [8] - Short-dated options have experienced significant volatility, with short calls dropping 80% in the morning and then moving against traders by the afternoon, complicating risk management [8]

Core Insights - Japanese Metaplanet has acquired 5,268 Bitcoin for $623 million, increasing its total holdings to 30,823 BTC, valued at approximately $3.3 billion, with an average acquisition price of $108,038 per coin, making it the fourth-largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally [1] - CEO Simon Gerovich aims to accumulate 210,000 Bitcoin by 2027, which would represent about 1% of the total Bitcoin supply [2] - The company reported a 33.0% BTC yield in Q3 2025, with consistent quarterly yields exceeding targets [2] Acquisition and Holdings - Metaplanet's recent acquisition has surpassed its fiscal year 2025 target of 30,000 BTC ahead of schedule [1] - The company now ranks behind Strategy's 640,031 BTC, MARA Holdings' 52,477 BTC, and XXI's 43,514 BTC in corporate Bitcoin holdings [1] Financial Performance - The Bitcoin Income Generation business reported $16.28 million in quarterly revenue, a 115.7% increase from Q2 2025 [3] - Full-year consolidated guidance has been revised to $45.4 million in revenue and $31.38 million in operating profit, reflecting a 100% increase in revenue and an 88% increase in operating profit compared to prior forecasts [3] Options Trading Growth - The options trading segment has shown rapid growth, with Q4 2024 generating $4.62 million, Q1 2025 producing $5.14 million, and Q2 2025 reaching $7.55 million [4] - Metaplanet allocated $136.3 million to Bitcoin Income Generation operations, focusing on selling Bitcoin options and monetizing implied volatility [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company launched Phase II of its strategy on October 1, introducing new business lines to enhance accumulation capacity without diluting common equity [5] - The plan includes three revenue streams: Internal Bitcoin Income Generation, Bitcoin.jp platform revenue, and Project NOVA, set to launch in 2026 [5] Talent Acquisition and Future Plans - Management is enhancing trading operations by recruiting global talent with expertise in institutional derivatives [6] - Revenue expansion will support planned perpetual preferred share issuances, capped at a 6% annual dividend yield, which has been approved but not yet issued [6]

BlackRock Inc.’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has overtaken Coinbase Global Inc.’s Deribit platform as the largest venue for Bitcoin options, underscoring how the center of gravity in digital-asset markets is shifting from offshore platforms to Wall Street https://t.co/SMmQT7kYza ...

Market Trends & Volatility - Crypto markets are preparing for potential weekend volatility following a record $18 billion Bitcoin options expiry [1] - Analysts suggest the expiry may trigger delayed volatility [1]

Core Insights - The $18 billion notional expiry of Bitcoin options is considered "record-setting," with potential volatility effects possibly delayed [1] - Historical trends indicate that large expiries may suppress volatility before the cut-off, leading to clearer directional moves in the following 24-72 hours [2] Market Sentiment - Users on Myriad predict that Bitcoin will likely experience more price declines over the weekend, with bearish sentiment slightly outweighing bullish sentiment at 51% to 49% [3] Options Market Dynamics - Options are derivatives that allow traders to buy or sell Bitcoin at a predetermined price, serving as a popular risk-hedging tool [4] - Most crypto options expire on fixed monthly cycles, and large notional expiries can create market volatility as traders adjust their risk [5] Future Outlook - As of now, there is $78.9 billion in open interest in Bitcoin contracts, with over $8 billion set to expire on October 31 on Deribit [6] - The Bitcoin options market shows elevated levels of open interest, particularly in October-dated calls concentrated in the $115,000 to $125,000 range [7] Hedging Implications - Dealers who sold options may need to hedge aggressively if Bitcoin prices rise, potentially leading to exaggerated intraday price swings [8]