Red Cat (NasdaqCM:RCAT) Update / briefing February 27, 2026 09:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsBarry Hinckley - President of Blue OpsChris Ericson - COOChristian Morrison - CFOGeoff Hitchcock - Chief Revenue OfficerJeff Thompson - CEOStan Nowak - VP of MarketingConference Call ParticipantsAlex Latimore - AnalystAustin Bohlig - AnalystCraig Irwin - AnalystJason Ader - AnalystJosh Bennett - AnalystJosh Sullivan - AnalystMike Glick - AnalystMike Latimore - AnalystNed Morgan - AnalystStan NowakWelcome to West Palm ...

Industry Overview - The global drone technology market is entering a new phase of expansion, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing [1] - The integration of AI has made modern drones faster and more versatile, enabling autonomous navigation based on real-time data [2] - Drones are gaining mainstream adoption across various sectors, including logistics, surveillance, and infrastructure monitoring, with significant use by companies like Walmart and Amazon [3] Defense Sector Growth - The defense segment remains a major growth engine, with increased drone adoption driven by geopolitical strains and defense upgrades [4] - Drones are widely deployed for border security, precision strikes, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) operations, becoming indispensable in modern warfare [4] Technological Advancements - Drone swarm technology allows multiple autonomous drones to operate in tandem, enhancing capabilities in military operations and large-area surveillance [5] - The unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) market is projected to witness a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.77% from 2026 to 2035 [6] Investment Opportunities - Companies like Ondas, Draganfly, and Red Cat Holdings are highlighted as high-potential stocks in the drone technology sector [7] - Ondas is focusing on autonomous systems and has raised its revenue outlook for 2026 to $170-$180 million, a 25% increase from previous targets [11] - Draganfly has secured significant contracts with the U.S. military and is expanding its product offerings, including NDAA-compliant drones [14][15] - Red Cat Holdings is experiencing strong demand from defense clients and has reported substantial revenue growth, with 2025 revenues projected to be between $38 million and $41 million, up about 153% from 2024 [19]

Industry Overview - The global drone industry is experiencing significant growth, with a projected CAGR of 14.3% from 2025 to 2030, driven by adoption in commercial, government, and military sectors [1] - The integration of drones with AI, cloud computing, and edge processing is enhancing their adoption across various verticals [1] Ondas Holdings (ONDS) - Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS) is transitioning into a high-growth segment, benefiting from increased deployments of Iron Drone Raider and Optimus platforms, along with revenue from acquired businesses like Apeiro Motion [3] - The company expects strong results in the counter-unmanned aerial systems (C-UAS) segment, with momentum in ground robotics offerings [4] - Preliminary financial results for Q4 2025 indicate revenues between $27 million and $29 million, a 51% increase from prior targets, with a backlog of $65.3 million, up 180% from previous reports [5] - For 2026, Ondas raised its revenue outlook to $170-$180 million, a 25% increase from the previous target, reflecting improved backlog and revenue visibility [6] - Concerns exist regarding heavy reliance on OAS for revenue growth and potential risks from customer delays or cancellations [7] Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) - Red Cat specializes in robotic hardware-software integration for military and commercial applications, with a focus on expanding into the maritime sector [8][9] - Preliminary results for Q4 2025 show expected revenues between $24 million and $26.5 million, significantly up from $1.3 million in the prior year, with 2025 revenues projected at $38-$41 million, a 153% increase from 2024 [10] - The company is experiencing solid demand from defense clients and is expanding production capabilities with new facilities [11] - However, RCAT faces challenges with rapidly expanding operating costs and significant capital expenditures, particularly in its Blue Ops division [13] Financial Performance and Valuation - Over the past month, ONDS and RCAT have seen stock gains of 41.6% and 56.3%, respectively [16] - ONDS has a forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 33.37X, significantly higher than RCAT's 9.92X [17] - Analysts have revised earnings estimates for ONDS by 3.5% over the past 60 days, while RCAT's estimates have remained unchanged [18][20] Investment Comparison - Both ONDS and RCAT are positioned to benefit from the growing drone market, but Ondas is viewed as the better investment due to its larger scale, higher revenue visibility, and stronger balance sheet compared to RCAT [22]

Group 1: Core Insights - President Trump proposed a total ban on stock buybacks and dividends for defense contractors until supply issues are resolved, alongside a proposed 50% increase in the military budget to $1.5 trillion by 2027 [1][3] - The announcement led to a surge in stocks of drone manufacturers and autonomous systems providers, as investors viewed the proposed military spending increase as a positive catalyst for the sector [1][4] Group 2: Impact on Defense Contractors - Trump criticized the current pace of military manufacturing, specifically targeting the billions allocated to shareholder returns while key programs face significant backlogs [2] - Companies like Red Cat, Kratos, and AeroVironment, which operate without the bureaucratic constraints of larger defense firms, are positioned to benefit from potential Pentagon contracts [5] - Following Trump's posts, shares of major defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX, and General Dynamics experienced a drop of 4% to 6%, but later recovered due to the proposed military spending increase [5] Group 3: Proposed Changes and Market Sentiment - Trump proposed a $5 million cap on executive compensation for underperforming defense firms, emphasizing the need to redirect capital into new production facilities [5] - The sentiment from the Trump administration indicates a desire for a decentralized, domestic military manufacturing base capable of rapid weapon production [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has led to a significant rally in drone stocks, highlighting the effectiveness of unmanned technology in urban warfare [1]. Technology at the Forefront - The operation involved a precision raid in Caracas that relied heavily on aerial dominance [2]. - The raid utilized over 150 aircraft, including numerous remotely piloted drones, which were crucial in dismantling air defense networks and providing real-time intelligence [3]. Drone Stocks Surge - Key players in the drone industry have seen stock prices increase by over 10% as investors shift towards attritable and tactical unmanned hardware [4]. - Specific companies experiencing stock surges include: - AeroVironment, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAV): Shares have risen significantly due to its loitering munitions and surveillance drones being the gold standard for tactical operations [5]. - Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:RCAT): Gaining momentum as a primary beneficiary of the U.S. Army's shift towards domestically produced ISR drones [5]. - Ondas Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:ONDS): Stock is experiencing heavy volume due to its expansion into autonomous defense and counter-UAS platforms [5]. - Unusual Machines, Inc. (AMEX:UMAC): A critical supplier for American-made drone components, benefiting from the strategic urgency of the "Blue UAS" mandate [5]. - Draganfly Inc. (NASDAQ:DPRO): Shares are up over 6% following its selection by the U.S. Army to supply Flex FPV drone systems [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Red Cat reported record revenues of $9.6 million for Q3 2025, a 200% increase from Q2 2025, and a significant rise from $3.2 million in Q2 and $1.6 million in Q1 2025 [4][12] - Gross profit for Q3 2025 was $638,000, up from $375,000 in Q2 2025, and a substantial improvement from a gross loss of $392,000 in Q3 2024, reflecting a margin of 7% compared to a gross loss margin of 30% in the same quarter last year [12][13] - The company ended the quarter with $212.5 million in cash and receivables, positioning it well for future growth and obligations [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Limited-Rate Initial Production (LRIP) contract for the Black Widow system has expanded to $35.1 million, with total contracts for the U.S. Army approaching $40 million for 2025 [5][6] - The launch of the Blue Ops division, focused on uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), is expected to generate significant new revenue opportunities, with potential pricing between $750,000 and $1.5 million per unit [7][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand for drones has significantly increased, particularly from the U.S. Army, which is looking for millions of drones [10][19] - The approval of the Black Widow system for the NATO NSPA Catalog opens new market opportunities with NATO members and partner nations [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its manufacturing capabilities, having doubled its manufacturing space in Salt Lake City and Los Angeles, and is on track to scale drone output to 1,000 units per month by early 2026 [16][18] - Strategic partnerships with Palantir and AeroVironment are expected to enhance revenue growth and operational capabilities [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about recovering revenue from delays caused by government shutdowns and budget approvals, with Q4 expected to see revenues between $20 million and $22 million, representing a sequential increase of 170% [17][19] - The company anticipates continued strong growth driven by the ramp-up of Black Widow production and FANG system deliveries following Blue UAS certification [17] Other Important Information - The company has invested approximately $6 million into R&D in Q3 2025, a 66% increase over Q2, to support technological advancements in various areas [14][15] - General and administrative expenses rose to $9.2 million in Q3 2025, a 48% increase over Q2, to support the larger organization and the establishment of the Blue Ops division [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on full-rate production order - Management indicated that the expectation for securing the full-rate production order by the end of the year has been affected by the government shutdown, with the size of the opportunity still uncertain [23] Question: Revenue opportunity from boat shipping - Management stated that selling 200 boats at the lower end of pricing could generate $150 million in revenue, with expectations for robust demand in 2026 [24][25] Question: Impact of six to seven-week delay on revenue recognition - Management explained that the delay shifted revenue recognition but did not change demand, with the only significant difference being the need to reconfigure the FlightWave Edge 130 [29][31] Question: Inventory increase - Management clarified that the inventory increase was primarily due to raw materials and parts for Black Widow production, not finished goods [32][35] Question: Blue Ops sales cycles and visibility - Management highlighted that there are significant opportunities in the 2026 budget for shipbuilding and USVs, with a mature platform compared to competitors [36] Question: Expectations for gross margin in Q4 - Management expects gross margins to increase to around 10% in Q4, projecting towards 20% by the end of next year as production scales up [40][41]

Summary of Red Cat Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Red Cat Holdings (NasdaqCM: RCAT) - **Date**: October 30, 2025 - **Speaker**: Stan Nowak, Marketing Executive Key Points Industry and Market Positioning - Red Cat is positioning itself as an "all-domain" company, focusing on land, sea, air, and cyber capabilities [3][5] - The company has three main divisions: Teal Drones, FlightWave Aerospace, and a newly announced maritime division called Blue Ops [4][9] - The maritime expansion is driven by the need for advanced capabilities in potential future conflicts, particularly in the South China Sea [6][9] Product Development and Technology - The flagship product, Black Widow, is a short-range reconnaissance drone that has already begun fielding [11][35] - The company is in low-rate production for the Black Widow and expects to ramp up to full-rate production by the end of the year [11][35] - The Edge 130 tri-copter is undergoing optimization to enhance its capabilities [15][16] - The FAANG drone, a low-cost FPV technology, has recently been certified as Blue UAS, opening up government sales opportunities [18][35] Strategic Partnerships and Acquisitions - Red Cat emphasizes the importance of partnerships and acquisitions to accelerate technology and market entry [5][41] - Collaborations with companies like Palantir and Edge Autonomy are crucial for integrating advanced technologies into their systems [26][31] - The company has divested two commercial drone companies to strengthen its focus on defense and security applications [4] Manufacturing and Production Facilities - A new 155,000 square foot manufacturing facility is being established in Valdosta, Georgia, to support boat production [9][21] - The facility will utilize existing infrastructure from a previous boat-building company, allowing for a quicker ramp-up [9][21] Future Growth and Market Opportunities - Red Cat is poised for significant revenue growth, particularly with NATO and international markets due to its inclusion in the NSPA catalog [14][35] - The company is exploring opportunities in Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and with U.S. military branches beyond the Army [35][37] - The focus on swarming technology and multi-platform capabilities is expected to enhance operational effectiveness in contested environments [31][32] Challenges and Compliance - The company has transitioned away from Chinese parts to ensure compliance with NDAA and Blue UAS certification [40][41] - There are restrictions on sales to certain countries, including China, Russia, and Iran, as dictated by the U.S. State Department [42] Upcoming Events - An earnings call is scheduled for November 13, which will provide updated financial information [2][34] Additional Insights - The concept of "marsupial deployment" is introduced, where drones are launched from uncrewed surface vessels to enhance operational range and effectiveness [6][7] - The integration of visual navigation technology is highlighted as a significant advancement, potentially reducing reliance on GPS in contested environments [28][30] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, focusing on Red Cat Holdings' strategic direction, product offerings, and market positioning within the defense and security industry.

Group 1 - Financial giants are showing a bearish sentiment towards Red Cat Holdings, with 60% of traders exhibiting bearish tendencies and 40% bullish [1] - The options analysis revealed a total of 10 unusual trades, consisting of 3 puts valued at $206,930 and 7 calls valued at $337,974 [1] - The expected price movements for Red Cat Holdings are concentrated within a range of $10.0 to $30.0 over the past three months [2] Group 2 - The mean open interest for Red Cat Holdings options trades is 3,156.43, with a total volume of 1,248.00 [3] - Noteworthy options activity includes a bearish put trade with a total price of $115.2K and a bullish call trade valued at $93.0K [8] - The current trading volume stands at 4,082,879, with the stock price down by 2.73% at $14.26 [14] Group 3 - Red Cat Holdings is a drone technology company that integrates robotic hardware and software for military, government, and commercial operations [9] - The company offers a range of drone systems, including the Arachnid family of ISR drones and the Edge 130 Blue drone systems [10] - Analysts have set an average price target of $17.0 for Red Cat Holdings, with a recent downward revision to a Buy rating [11][12]

Core Insights - Red Cat Holdings, Inc. is positioned to benefit from recent executive orders and FAA rulemaking aimed at integrating unmanned aircraft systems into national airspace, creating significant opportunities for drone and boat manufacturers in the defense sector [1][2] Group 1: Company Developments - FlightWave's Edge 130 is now in production with significant upgrades, enhancing its capabilities for short-range and medium-range operations, and has begun securing orders, including foreign military sales [2] - The Black Widow drone is in production, with the first delivery to the U.S. Army scheduled for this month following a contract signed at the end of July [2] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The combination of government initiatives and increased appropriations for small UAS is expected to create a strong tailwind for Red Cat's divisions, including FlightWave, Teal Drones, and the new Maritime division [1]

Summary of Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) Update / Briefing August 14, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) - **Focus**: Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and Maritime Division Key Industry Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The integration of unmanned aircraft systems into national airspace is being supported by executive orders and FAA rulemaking, creating significant opportunities for drone manufacturers in the defense sector [1][7][15] - **Regulatory Changes**: The upcoming ban on DJI drones in the U.S. is expected to create a demand gap worth approximately $957 million annually in dual-use sectors [14][15] Core Company Developments - **Flightwave and Black Widow**: - The Edge 130 is now in production with successful flights conducted for defense groups, and foreign military sales are anticipated [2] - The Black Widow drone is in production, with the first delivery to the U.S. Army scheduled for this month [3][22] - Black Widow has received positive soldier feedback, enhancing its capabilities with over 52 minutes of flight time [4][22] - **Maritime Division**: - A new Maritime Division is being established, with a focus on unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) that can integrate with existing drone technology [5][6][39] - The total addressable market for USVs is significantly larger than for small unmanned aircraft systems (SUAS) [5] Financial Performance - **Cash Position**: The company has a strong cash balance of $66 million and an inventory buildup of $16 million to support future growth [8] - **Operating Costs**: Cash used in operating activities decreased from $15.9 million to $12.9 million year-over-year, indicating improved efficiency [9][102] Government Relations and Funding - **Government Support**: Strong relationships with U.S. government entities are translating into funding opportunities, with the Army requesting $148.85 million for short-range reconnaissance systems [12][13] - **Nondilutive Funding**: Advanced discussions are ongoing with the Department of Defense for nearly $50 million in nondilutive funding to enhance production capabilities [13] Strategic Growth Opportunities - **Civilian Market Expansion**: The company is looking to leverage its defense technology for civilian applications, anticipating significant demand as DJI exits the market [25][27] - **Production Capacity**: Red Cat is capable of producing up to 1,000 drones per month and is preparing to scale production for civilian versions of its drones [27][29] Competitive Advantages - **Product Differentiation**: Red Cat emphasizes listening to warfighter needs, resulting in robust, modular designs that outperform competitors [67][70] - **Technological Integration**: The company is integrating advanced technologies, including visual navigation solutions, to enhance drone capabilities [19][20] Future Outlook - **Revenue Projections**: The company expects substantial revenue growth driven by increased military contracts and the introduction of new products, including the maritime division [84][85] - **Market Positioning**: Red Cat is well-positioned to capitalize on regulatory changes and increased defense spending, with a focus on both domestic and international markets [90][106] Additional Considerations - **Tariff Impact**: No significant tariff complications have been reported, as most components are sourced domestically [17] - **R&D Initiatives**: The company is actively working on undisclosed R&D projects to enhance its product offerings [48] This summary encapsulates the key points from the Red Cat Holdings briefing, highlighting the company's strategic initiatives, market opportunities, and financial health.