Looking back on 2025, the sound money, or debasement trade, was decisively won by the metals over bitcoin. Gold delivered one of its best years on record, up 65%, while bitcoin so far is down 7%. Until August, the two assets had similar returns, both up roughly 30%. From that point, gold surged while bitcoin rolled over sharply. This divergence reinforced that gold won the debasement trade narrative leaving bitcoin firmly behind. Bitcoin remains in recovery mode after a 36% correction from its October ...

U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted their largest one-day inflows since Nov. 11 on Wednesday, coinciding with a volatile crypto market during which bitcoin (BTC) rallied to nearly $90,000 before reversing and falling below $86,000. In total, the funds recorded net inflows of $457.3 million, most of which — $391.5 million — went into Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), according to Farside data. This ranks as a top five inflow day for FBTC. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) a ...

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility in 2025, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $126,000 in October before declining to $91,881, marking a year-to-date decrease of 1.7% [1][2] Market Performance - Bitcoin's initial rally in 2025 was driven by supportive regulations, strong Bitcoin ETF inflows, and increased institutional demand, positioning it as a safe asset amid trade tensions [2] - Other cryptocurrencies also faced declines, with Ethereum down 5.3% year-to-date, Solana down 26.9%, and Ripple remaining flat after hitting an all-time high of $3.56 in July [3] Market Sentiment - Recent market sentiment weakened following a warning from the People's Bank of China against illegal digital currency activities, contributing to muted trading volumes across exchanges [4] - A shift in investor focus towards global equities, coupled with risk-off sentiments due to economic conditions, has led to a slump in the crypto market [5] Historical Context - Bitcoin's price swings are typical in the cryptocurrency market, with historical data indicating that significant corrections often follow major rallies [7][8] - Previous cycles have shown similar patterns, with substantial declines occurring before new record highs [9] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if macroeconomic stress or institutional exits increase, Bitcoin could potentially drop below $50,000 by 2026, as historical trends indicate significant declines during "crypto winters" [10] - However, potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could favor risk-on assets like Bitcoin, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets [12] Industry Developments - Bitcoin miners are adapting by leveraging their infrastructure for AI data centers, transitioning from traditional mining to providing compute resources for AI applications [13] - Investment firms like Bank of America and Morgan Stanley recommend a small allocation of 1-4% of portfolios to cryptocurrencies, indicating a growing acceptance of digital assets [14][15] Investment Opportunities - Investors can consider Bitcoin ETFs such as Bitwise Bitcoin ETF, Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, and Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust, as well as Ethereum ETFs like iShares Ethereum Trust ETF and Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF [17]

Market Overview - Bitcoin and Ether experienced significant declines on December 1, 2025, with Bitcoin down approximately 5% over the past week and Ether down about 7%, alongside broader losses in the crypto industry [1] - Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) faced their second-worst month in November, with outflows totaling $3.5 billion, and Bitcoin's value has decreased over 30% from its October all-time high of over $126,000 [1] Market Sentiment and Influences - High leverage in crypto markets and macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly regarding U.S. interest-rate cuts, are acting as headwinds for the market [2][3] - The People's Bank of China's warning against illegal digital currency activities has further pressured Asian crypto stocks, leading to declines in Hong Kong-listed crypto-linked companies [4] Trading Activity and Future Outlook - Muted trading volumes on both centralized and decentralized exchanges indicate a subdued risk appetite in the crypto market, with expectations of a sustained rally appearing unlikely in the near term [5] - However, 2026 may present a different market setup, suggesting potential long-term gains despite current short-term weaknesses [5] Investment Recommendations - Bank of America recommends a 1-4% allocation to cryptocurrency for its wealth management clients, indicating a cautious approach to digital asset exposure [6] - Morgan Stanley also suggests a 2-4% portfolio allocation to crypto, describing it as a speculative but increasingly popular asset class [8] - Vanguard Group has shifted its stance to allow crypto ETFs and mutual funds on its platform, reflecting a growing acceptance of digital assets [8] ETF Options - Investors can consider various Bitcoin ETFs, including Bitwise Bitcoin ETF, Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust, and BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust [7] - Additionally, Ether ETFs such as iShares Ethereum Trust ETF, Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF, and Fidelity Ethereum Fund ETF are available for investment [9]

Group 1 - In mid-November 2025, Bitcoin ETFs experienced nearly $900 million in outflows in a single day, marking the second-largest withdrawal since their launch in January 2024, coinciding with Bitcoin falling below $95,000 for the first time in six months [1][5][6] - November 2025 saw record monthly outflows from Bitcoin ETFs totaling $3.79 billion, surpassing the previous record set in February, indicating a trend of investors exiting funds entirely rather than merely trimming positions [4][6][9] - Solana ETFs, launched on October 28, 2025, attracted $531 million in their first week, benefiting from competitive fee structures and 7% staking yields, contrasting with the outflows from Bitcoin ETFs [2][6][7] Group 2 - The divergence in capital flows between Bitcoin and Solana ETFs highlights a shift in investor sentiment, with Solana funds recording inflows for seven consecutive days even as Bitcoin's value declined [7][8] - Factors contributing to the outflows from Bitcoin ETFs include profit-taking after a significant price surge and macroeconomic pressures such as a federal government shutdown and concerns over an AI-driven tech bubble, leading investors to favor safer assets [9]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has sold $104 million in structured notes linked to BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which is a spot Bitcoin ETF allowing traditional market exposure to Bitcoin [1][2] - This initiative represents a significant effort by Wall Street to provide controlled Bitcoin exposure to wealthy clients [2] Product Details - The structured note, known as dual directional autocallable trigger plus, offers enhanced payouts if IBIT remains flat or increases, with limited gains if the ETF declines by less than 25%. Full losses are incurred if the ETF drops below this threshold [3][4] - The note features an autocall function: if IBIT closes at or above its initial level after one year, investors receive principal plus approximately 28%. If IBIT is below its starting level but above 75%, the note continues to maturity with potential gains up to 25%. A breach below the 75% level results in full exposure to losses [4] Market Context - IBIT, launched in early 2024, quickly became the largest Bitcoin ETF in the US, attracting tens of billions in assets as it offers a simpler access route to Bitcoin without the complexities of private keys or crypto-native platforms [5][6] - The ETF trades like a standard equity security, providing intraday liquidity, clearer tax treatment, and a custodied structure suitable for large banks' risk models [6] Investor Sentiment - Structured products are increasingly viewed as a safer way for mainstream investors to engage with crypto volatility without assuming crypto-level risks, according to industry experts [7] - Bitcoin has seen a nearly 30% decline from its recent peak, with a seven-month low of $89,393 recorded on November 18, 2025 [7]

Core Insights - Former Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel reported a personal loss exceeding $1.2 million on call options linked to BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) after his prediction of Bitcoin reaching $444,000 by November 8 did not materialize [1][2][3] Group 1: Mandel's Investment and Loss - Mandel disclosed his "all in" strategy on IBIT call options, which ultimately expired worthless [2] - His previous investment strategies included a mix of long and short positions, with an initial bullish outlook on Bitcoin reaching $84,000 [3] - The significant loss highlights the risks associated with options trading in the volatile Bitcoin market [9] Group 2: Background on Bitcoin Advocacy - Mandel was an early advocate for Bitcoin, launching OhioCrypto.com in 2018, allowing businesses to pay state taxes in Bitcoin [5][6] - His initiative aimed to position Ohio as a leader in blockchain innovation and modernize state finances [6] - The program faced regulatory challenges and was suspended in 2019, with limited adoption by businesses [7] Group 3: Market Context - Interest in Bitcoin ETF options has surged since their launch in late 2024, with increased trading volumes and a preference for bullish positions among traders [8] - Recent performance of Bitcoin ETFs has been lackluster, with significant outflows reaching levels not seen since May, although a recent inflow was recorded after a $2.9 billion outflow streak [9] - Mandel's speculative long-term bets are seen as outliers, emphasizing the inherent risks in the options market and Bitcoin's price volatility [9]

Group 1 - Bitwise's Staking Solana (BSOL) ETF had a strong market debut, attracting approximately $417 million in its first week, making it one of the top 20 ETFs by net inflows across all asset classes [1][2] - BSOL's inflows were nearly ten times larger than the NEOS Bitcoin High Income ETF, which brought in $56.17 million, indicating significant investor interest in Solana compared to other crypto ETFs [2] - The early success of BSOL suggests institutional investors are diversifying their exposure beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating pent-up demand for altcoin-focused ETFs [3] Group 2 - Despite the record inflows into BSOL, the price of Solana (SOL) fell by more than 3% over the past week, currently trading at $186.92, suggesting that inflows may have come from asset rotations rather than new capital [4] - Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, remains optimistic about Solana's future, emphasizing its role in stablecoin transfers and tokenized assets, supported by its high-speed infrastructure and active developer community [5]

Core Insights - U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced a significant turnaround on October 14, with a combined net inflow of $338.8 million after a weekend of over $755 million in withdrawals, indicating a potential shift in institutional investor behavior towards accumulation [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Activity - Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $102.58 million, while Ethereum ETFs attracted $236.22 million on October 14 [2] - The crypto market faced a sell-off that wiped out more than $500 billion due to U.S.–China trade tensions and liquidations across exchanges [2] - As of October 14, Bitcoin spot ETFs collectively hold $153.55 billion in assets under management, which is 6.82% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization [5] Group 2: Institutional Sentiment - Kevin Lee from Gate described the rebound as "encouraging but premature," emphasizing the need for consistent net creations across issuers to confirm durable institutional confidence [2][3] - Siraaj Ahmed from Byrrgis viewed the inflows as an early sign of accumulation, suggesting that institutions tend to buy during fear rather than panic [3] - Analysts suggest that the combination of ETF inflows, rising on-chain accumulation, and stabilizing macro conditions may indicate a renewed build-up phase in the market [3] Group 3: Fund Performance - Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund led the inflows with $132.67 million, bringing its total historical net inflows to $12.74 billion [4] - Bitwise's BITB followed with $7.99 million in inflows, while BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust saw $30.79 million in redemptions [4] - Cumulative inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have now reached $62.55 billion, with daily trading volumes at $6.92 billion, reflecting strong investor activity [5]

Core Insights - Bitcoin's supply dynamics are shifting due to institutional flows into long-term custody via spot ETFs and movements from government-controlled wallets, raising questions about price reactions when most available supply is committed [1] Group 1: Institutional and Government Dynamics - Spot ETF inflows are actively removing circulating coins from the market, compressing liquidity, while government wallet movements create caution due to their opaque timing and purpose [2] - BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust has become the largest custodian among spot ETFs, holding over 800,000 BTC, which is approximately 3.8% of the total supply, contributing to a combined share of over 5% held by regulated funds [3] - The tightening of available float across exchanges has been significant, with major platforms like Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken seeing a decline of over 90,000 BTC since late August, correlating with steady ETF inflows [4] Group 2: Government Holdings and Market Reactions - Recent transfers of nearly 667 BTC from U.S. government-linked addresses have raised concerns about potential sell pressure, despite these being internal shifts rather than sales [5] - The U.S. government holds over 200,000 BTC from enforcement seizures, with past sales closely timed with price dips, prompting traders to monitor these addresses alongside ETF flow data for liquidity planning [6] - The combination of steady institutional buying and static government balances creates a feedback loop that reduces tradable supply and heightens market sensitivity to liquidity changes [7]