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Axon's 9-Year Winning Streak Just Snapped. Can It Get Back on Track in 2026?
The Motley Fool· 2026-01-27 05:45
Core Viewpoint - Axon Enterprise has demonstrated exceptional stock performance over the past decade, consistently delivering positive returns even during broader market downturns, with a significant stock price increase of 3,340% from the end of 2015 to 2024 [2][3]. Company Performance - From 2016 to 2024, Axon generated positive returns in every year, contrasting with the S&P 500, which had two losing years [2]. - In 2025, Axon experienced a 4% decline in stock price, marking its first underperformance against the S&P 500 since 2017, despite being up over 40% at one point during the year [5]. Revenue Growth - Axon has achieved robust revenue growth, with over 30% growth in the last seven quarters and in 14 of the last 15 quarters [6]. - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2025 to $2.74 billion, reflecting a 31% annual growth [7]. Valuation and Market Position - The stock's growth has been constrained by a significant increase in its price-to-sales ratio, which rose from 4 a decade ago to 19 today [7]. - Despite valuation challenges, Axon is well-positioned for future growth due to strategic acquisitions and product innovations [7][8]. Strategic Acquisitions - Axon has made key acquisitions, including Prepared and Carbyne, which have expanded its total addressable market by $5 billion to $159 billion [8]. - The launch of Axon 911, utilizing AI technology for emergency response, is a significant development that enhances the company's service offerings [8]. Technological Innovations - The introduction of a generative AI product called Draft One, which automates police report writing, exemplifies Axon's commitment to leveraging technology to improve efficiency [9]. - Axon is expanding its market for body cameras, achieving its largest sale in 2024 to a package delivery company [10]. Long-term Outlook - The company is viewed as healthy and capable of returning to its previous growth trajectory, with strategic moves indicating a focus on long-term success [12][13].