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How Should Investors Approach Kroger Stock Before Q1 Earnings?
ZACKSยท 2025-06-19 14:16
Core Viewpoint - Kroger Co. is expected to report a slight increase in revenue and earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, with revenues projected at $45.38 billion, reflecting a 0.3% year-over-year growth, and earnings per share (EPS) estimated at $1.45, indicating a 1.4% increase from the previous year [1][2][7]. Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is $45.38 billion, which is a marginal increase of 0.3% compared to the prior year's figure of $45.27 billion [3][7]. - For the current fiscal year, the revenue estimate is $149.07 billion, with a projected growth of 1.33% year-over-year [3]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter EPS is $1.45, which represents a year-over-year increase of 1.4% from $1.43 [4][7]. - The current year EPS estimate stands at $4.74, with a growth projection of 6.04% for the next year [4]. Key Growth Drivers - Growth in private-label brands, digital sales, and media income are expected to support Kroger's top line [7]. - The company's focus on customer-centric strategies, particularly through its "Our Brands" portfolio, has enhanced customer engagement and loyalty [8]. - Digital sales surpassed $13 billion in fiscal 2024, indicating a strong trend that is likely to continue into the first quarter [9]. - Kroger's alternative profit businesses, including Kroger Precision Marketing, have contributed to a more diversified revenue base [10]. Market Performance - Kroger's stock has increased by 30.3% over the past year, outperforming Dollar General but trailing Walmart and Costco [12]. - The company's stock performance is compared to industry peers, with Kroger trading at a forward P/E ratio of 13.38, which is lower than the industry average of 31.95 [13][15]. Challenges - The retail environment remains challenging due to inflation, high interest rates, and changing consumer behavior, which may limit overall sales momentum [11]. - Kroger's fuel operations are projected to decline, with supermarket fuel sales expected to fall by 5.8% year-over-year [11]. - The termination of the Albertsons merger has resulted in $5.8 billion in new debt, increasing projected interest expenses for 2025 [11].