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FX Market Awaits Powell, As Government Shutdown Obstructs Price Discovery
Benzingaยท 2025-10-06 12:42
Market Overview - Global markets ended the week higher, with Wall Street overcoming the U.S. government shutdown and the S&P 500 surpassing 6,700 for the first time, marking a five-month winning streak with a rise of approximately 3.5% for the week and over 14% year-to-date [1] Currency Market Dynamics - The dollar experienced its worst week since July, declining 0.1% on the DXY index to 97.69, influenced by shutdown uncertainty [2] - The euro strengthened by 0.2% to $1.1743, and sterling rose 0.3% to $1.3479, benefiting from softer U.S. data and diminishing dollar momentum [2] - The Swiss franc gained with USD/CHF down 0.4% for the week, while the yen remained volatile amid speculation regarding the Bank of Japan's next moves [2] Economic Data and Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown, which began at midnight Wednesday, halted operations at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and canceled the nonfarm payrolls report, leaving traders to rely on alternative indicators like ADP employment and job-cut figures [3] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that GDP growth could face a temporary setback, but investors remained largely unfazed [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The absence of official data complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making ahead of its meeting on October 28-29, where markets anticipate two more rate cuts by year-end [4] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming remarks at a banking conference may provide insights into the central bank's next steps, especially in light of the lack of data [11] Upcoming Events - The week ahead includes the release of the Federal Reserve's latest Meeting Minutes and a vote by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on a 25bps interest rate cut, potentially lowering the rate to 2.75% [10]