Core Viewpoint - Volta Finance Limited has appointed BNP Paribas Asset Management Europe as its new investment manager effective from December 31, 2025, following the merger of AXA Investment Managers Paris and BNP AM [2]. Group 1: Change of Investment Manager - The appointment of BNP AM is a result of the merger with AXA IM, and BNP AM will succeed to the existing investment management agreement [2]. - The terms of the investment management agreement, including fees, will remain unchanged, and no material changes to management arrangements are anticipated [3]. Group 2: Company Overview - Volta Finance Limited is incorporated in Guernsey and is listed on Euronext Amsterdam and the London Stock Exchange [4]. - The company aims to preserve capital across the credit cycle and provide stable income through quarterly dividends, primarily investing in CLOs and similar asset classes [5]. Group 3: About BNP Paribas Asset Management Europe - BNP AM is incorporated in France and is registered as a portfolio management company with the AMF [6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call records focus on the U.S. Treasury market and interest rate outlook for 2026, with insights from various financial institutions including Barclays, HSBC, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Core Insights and Arguments U.S. Treasury Market Outlook 1. **Yield Curve Dynamics**: - Barclays predicts a steepening of the yield curve, with 2-year yields expected to drop to 3.1% and 30-year yields remaining around 4.7%, resulting in a 2s30s spread of 160 basis points [6][10]. - HSBC anticipates a bear steepening of the yield curve, projecting a 10-year yield of 4.30% by the end of 2026 [15][19]. - Morgan Stanley suggests that the Fed's rate cuts may be less than market expectations, with a forecast of only 50 basis points of cuts [25][26]. 2. **Federal Reserve Policy**: - The new leadership at the Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a more dovish stance, potentially lowering rates below neutral levels [6][7]. - The Fed is projected to end quantitative tightening (QT) and begin purchasing T-bills to maintain adequate reserves, with an estimated purchase of $330 billion in T-bills in 2026 [10][31]. 3. **Fiscal Deficit and Inflation**: - The fiscal deficit is expected to remain around 6% of GDP, approximately $1.9 trillion, with inflation projected to stabilize around 2% [6][10][25]. - Concerns about inflation resurgence due to fiscal expansion and tariff impacts are highlighted, with core PCE inflation expected to remain above 2% [41][48]. Supply and Demand Dynamics 1. **Net Supply Projections**: - A significant reduction in net supply of U.S. Treasuries is anticipated, with a decrease of approximately $470 billion to $1.2 trillion in 2026 [6][58]. - Investment-grade corporate bonds are expected to see an increase in net supply, driven by mergers and acquisitions [58]. 2. **Market Demand**: - Bank demand for mid-term Treasuries is expected to rebound due to regulatory changes [9]. - Continuous inflows into bond funds are supporting demand, particularly for MBS, which are favored due to their attractive spreads [58][62]. Investment Recommendations 1. **Asset Recommendations**: - Barclays recommends going long on 2-year Treasuries to capitalize on anticipated rate cuts [10]. - HSBC suggests positioning in the belly of the curve (5-year Treasuries) for lower structural risk and positive carry [21]. - Deutsche Bank advises a cautious approach to long-dated Treasuries, predicting underperformance relative to swaps [39]. 2. **Strategic Themes**: - "Carry is king" is emphasized as a core investment strategy, focusing on high-yield bonds and leveraged loans due to their attractive coupon rates in a stable interest rate environment [41][47]. - The potential for a bear steepening of the yield curve is noted, with strategies to exploit this dynamic [21][47]. Other Important Insights - The reports highlight a complex economic landscape characterized by resilient growth, sticky inflation, and the dual risks of fiscal deterioration and inflation rebound [7][17]. - The impact of AI-driven capital expenditures and fiscal stimulus from legislation like the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is noted as a potential growth driver [41][48]. - The need for caution regarding economic recession risks and policy uncertainties is emphasized, particularly in relation to tariffs and Fed independence [26][37]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the U.S. Treasury market outlook and associated investment strategies for 2026.

Core Viewpoint - Volta Finance Limited successfully passed all resolutions at its Annual General Meeting, including a special resolution, indicating strong governance and shareholder support [2][3]. Company Overview - Volta Finance Limited is incorporated in Guernsey and listed on Euronext Amsterdam and the London Stock Exchange, subject to regulation by the AFM in the Netherlands [4][5]. - The company aims to preserve capital across the credit cycle and provide stable income through quarterly dividends, primarily investing in CLOs and similar asset classes [5]. Investment Management - AXA Investment Managers Paris is appointed as the investment manager for Volta Finance, specializing in structured credit [5][6]. - AXA IM is a significant player in the asset management industry, managing over €879 billion in assets as of June 2025 [6].

Core Insights - Active management is essential in CLO investing, providing structural protections and mitigating credit risk while enhancing yields compared to traditional corporate bonds [1][2][4]. Investment Opportunities - VanEck has launched two CLO ETFs: VanEck CLO ETF (CLOI) with a 30-day SEC yield of 5.43% and VanEck AABB CLO ETF (CLOB) with a yield of 6.59% as of 10/31/2025, offering access to investment-grade floating-rate CLOs and mezzanine tranches [4]. Market Dynamics - CLOs may strengthen core bond portfolios and provide broader access to the asset class, offering a yield advantage over similarly rated investment-grade corporates while reducing duration risk [6]. - Manager expertise, strong security selection, and tranche analysis are critical for performance dispersion in CLOs, emphasizing the importance of active management [6]. - Investors are increasingly attentive to credit concerns specific to companies like First Brands and Tricolor, indicating that careful security selection, especially in mezzanine tranches, can help mitigate risks [6].

Summary of U.S. Fixed Income Markets 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: U.S. Fixed Income Markets - **Company**: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Key Economic Forecasts - **Real GDP Growth**: Projected at 1.8% for 2026, consistent with 2025 pace [5][19] - **Core PCE Inflation**: Expected to moderate slightly to 2.7% [19][28] - **Unemployment Rate**: Anticipated to remain stable at 4.3% [19][25] Interest Rate Expectations - **Federal Reserve Actions**: Anticipated 50 basis points (bp) cuts in January and April 2026 [5][19] - **Treasury Yields**: - 10-year yields expected to rise to 4.25% in Q2 2026 and 4.35% by Q4 2026 [6][19] - 2-year yields projected to remain around 3.51% through mid-year, rising to 3.85% by year-end [18][19] Fixed Income Market Dynamics - **Supply/Demand Imbalance**: Improvement expected in the Treasury market, but spread market technicals may worsen [19][41] - **High-Grade Corporate Spreads**: Forecasted to widen by 15bp to 110bp by year-end 2026 due to heavy supply and weakening credit fundamentals [19][44] - **High-Yield Bond Spreads**: Expected to widen by 30bp to 375bp, with default rates projected at 1.75% [15][19] Sector-Specific Insights - **Agency MBS**: Anticipated to provide modest excess returns despite a projected 5bp widening in OAS [19][28] - **ABS Market**: Expected to remain resilient with stable credit and slightly tighter spreads [11][12] - **CLOs**: Targeting new issue spreads to widen to 130bp, driven by waning exuberance and late-cycle defensiveness [15][46] Risks and Considerations - **Labor Market Risks**: Elevated risks of recession due to cyclical weakening in the labor market [29][30] - **Inflation Risks**: Core inflation expected to remain sticky, complicating the Fed's easing strategy [28][30] - **Regulatory Risks**: Potential impacts from financial deregulation and changes in capital frameworks [38][39] Technical Analysis - **Yield Curve**: Expected to remain range-bound with risks of flattening as the Fed goes on hold [6][19] - **Volatility**: Anticipated decline in shorter-expiry volatility, with longer-expiry volatility expected to increase [37][42] Conclusion - The outlook for the U.S. Fixed Income Markets in 2026 suggests a complex interplay of growth, inflation, and interest rate dynamics, with a focus on maintaining a defensive portfolio amidst macroeconomic uncertainties. The anticipated changes in yields and spreads across various sectors highlight the need for strategic positioning in the evolving market landscape.

Core Insights - Patria Investments Limited has agreed to acquire 51% of Solis Investimentos, a Brazilian investment manager specializing in CLOs, adding approximately US$ 3.5 billion in Assets Under Management (AUM) [1][2] - The acquisition will increase Patria's total Credit Fee-Earning AUM by over 40% to more than US$ 11.7 billion, solidifying its position as a leading Credit platform in Latin America [2] - The partnership aims to enhance Solis's growth by leveraging its credit origination and analysis capabilities with Patria's platform, expanding access to local and global capital [3][6] Company Overview - Solis Investimentos, founded in 2015, is a market leader in the CLO segment in Brazil, known for its strong market relationships and access to capital [3] - Solis serves a diversified investor base, including asset managers, bank treasuries, family offices, and wealth management clients, managing over 120 funds and serving more than 30,000 investors [4][7] - The funds managed by Solis have experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 45% since 2021, surpassing the market's average of 35% [7] Strategic Implications - The acquisition is expected to be accretive in the first year, enhancing Patria's origination capabilities in a rapidly growing market for non-bank, asset-backed instruments like CLOs [6][8] - The integration of Solis's expertise with Patria's sector intelligence and capital access is anticipated to strengthen both platforms and improve service to clients [6][7] - The leadership team at Solis will remain intact post-acquisition, ensuring continuity and the preservation of the company's operational DNA [5][7]

Core Insights - Volta Finance Limited reported a net return of -0.6% for October 2025, bringing the year-to-date performance to +2.9% [4] - The performance of Volta was notably lower compared to US High Yield bonds, which returned +7.3%, and Euro High Yield bonds, which achieved +4.7% during the same period [4] Performance and Market Activity - The market activity in October was influenced by political events, central bank decisions, and corporate earnings reports, leading to volatility after initial optimism [5] - The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, while approximately 85% of S&P 500 companies reported earnings that exceeded expectations, contributing to a late rally in US equities [5] - In the credit markets, the Morningstar LSTA Leveraged Loan Indices recorded returns of +0.22% in the US and -0.27% in Europe, with high yields providing some cushion against price declines [6] Portfolio Activity - Volta invested approximately EUR 5 million into six unique trades focusing on BB-rated and single-B rated tranches of European CLOs, with BBs sourced in the +560bps context and single-Bs in the +850bps context [7] - The company's cash position decreased to below 16%, while cash-flow generation reached approximately EUR 26 million, equivalent to 20% of October's NAV on an annualized basis [7] Performance Breakdown - Volta's CLO Equity tranches returned -1.9%, while CLO Debt tranches returned +0.1% [8] - The EUR/USD exchange rate movement positively impacted Volta's performance by +0.3% due to long dollar exposure [8] - As of the end of October 2025, Volta's NAV was €265.3 million, equating to €7.25 per share [8]

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Group 1 - The author has shifted focus from BBB tranches to AAA tranches due to reduced risk premiums and narrowing credit spreads in the asset management sector [1] - Financial Serenity is a column dedicated to financial analysis and quantitative research, particularly in asset management, managed by an experienced financial researcher [2] Group 2 - The initiative aims to provide in-depth analysis of the dynamics driving the asset management market, combining data analysis with actionable insights on ETFs and trending instruments [2]

Group 1 - The discussion focused on CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations) and their market dynamics [1] - The Reckoner Leveraged AAA CLO ETF (RAAA) was highlighted as a key investment vehicle in the CLO space [1] - Insights were provided on the performance and trends within the CLO market [1]