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FSLR Stock A Steal At $145?
Forbesยท 2025-06-23 12:30
Core Viewpoint - First Solar has faced a 14% loss year-to-date, primarily due to changes in federal energy policy that threaten solar tax credits, yet the company's strong fundamentals and attractive valuation may appeal to long-term investors willing to accept volatility [2][3][11]. Group 1: Policy Changes Impacting the Industry - The U.S. Senate Finance Committee has proposed to gradually eliminate solar and wind energy tax credits starting in 2026, reducing these credits by 60% in the coming year and phasing them out completely by 2028 [3]. - This policy shift significantly impacts First Solar, which derives 93% of its projected $4.2 billion revenue for 2024 from U.S. projects, making it more vulnerable than many competitors [4]. Group 2: Company Fundamentals - First Solar's Q1 2025 results showed earnings per share (EPS) of $1.95, below the forecast of $2.50, and revenue of $844.6 million, compared to an anticipated $866.2 million; however, gross margins improved to 41%, up from 37% in the prior quarter, indicating effective operational execution [5]. - The company is focusing on domestic manufacturing and advanced technology, including its CURE process and cadmium telluride thin-film modules, positioning itself well for future demand as U.S. electricity consumption is expected to rise sharply [6]. Group 3: Valuation and Growth Metrics - First Solar's stock is valued at approximately $145, with a P/E ratio of 12.2, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 26.9, while its P/S ratio of 3.8 is justified by superior growth and profitability [6]. - The company has achieved a 14% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenue over the past three years, nearly three times the pace of the S&P 500, with a 27% increase in sales over the last 12 months and a 6% rise in quarterly revenue year-over-year [7]. Group 4: Profitability and Financial Health - First Solar's operating margin stands at 33%, with a net income margin of 31%, and operating cash flow reached $1.2 billion in the past year, resulting in an operating cash flow margin of 29%, nearly double that of the S&P 500 [8]. - The company's balance sheet is strong, with total debt of $719 million against a market cap of $15 billion, leading to a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.7%, and it maintains $891 million in cash, representing 14.8% of total assets [9]. Group 5: Market Sensitivity - First Solar has shown susceptibility during market downturns, with significant stock declines during past crises, including a 49.3% drop in 2022 compared to the S&P 500's 25.4% decline [10]. - Despite its strong fundamentals, the company's heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks renders it a high-volatility investment [10]. Group 6: Investment Opportunity - For long-term investors who can tolerate risk, First Solar's stock at $145 presents a unique opportunity, as the market appears to be pricing in worst-case policy scenarios while overlooking the company's strong positioning and margin strength [12].