Summary of Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc. - **Ticker**: 002466.SZ, 9696.HK - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Market Cap**: US$11,528 million - **Stock Rating**: Equal-weight - **Price Target**: Rmb47.90, with a downside of 6% from the close price of Rmb50.77 on October 29, 2025 Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Performance**: - Net profit was Rmb95 million, a significant recovery from a loss of Rmb20 million in 2Q25 and Rmb496 million in 3Q24 - 9M25 net profit reached Rmb180 million, up 103% year-over-year - Recurring net profit for 3Q25 was Rmb70 million [1][2] - **Gross Profit**: Increased to Rmb964 million in 3Q25 from Rmb774 million in 2Q25, driven by higher lithium and spodumene prices - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Improved by 3.1 percentage points quarter-over-quarter to 37.6% in 3Q25 [2] Operational Developments - **Mid-Stream Expansion**: - Completion of 30kt LIOH capacity in Jiangsu by the end of July, with production of chemical-grade LIOH products starting in October [2] - **Lithium Price Outlook**: - Anticipated rising lithium prices, currently about 8% higher than the average in 3Q25, due to strong demand from electric vehicles (EV) and energy storage systems (ESS), expected to positively impact earnings in 4Q25 [2] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecast**: - Projected net revenue for 2025 is Rmb10,575 million, with an increase to Rmb13,921 million by 2026 [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - Expected EPS for 2025 is Rmb0.44, with projections of Rmb1.18 for 2026 and Rmb2.40 for 2027 [4] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: - Base case DCF model with a WACC of 11.5% and a terminal growth rate for free cash flow of 2% applied beyond the forecast period of 2025-33 [6] - **Risks**: - Upside risks include higher-than-expected lithium prices and output growth in upstream and midstream resources - Downside risks involve lower-than-expected lithium prices and output growth [8] Market Context - **Stock Performance**: - 52-week range for the stock is Rmb52.20 to Rmb25.57, indicating volatility in the stock price [4] - **Average Daily Trading Value**: Approximately US$198 million, reflecting active trading [4] Analyst Insights - **Industry View**: Attractive, indicating a positive outlook for the materials sector in Greater China [4] - **Analyst Ratings**: The stock is rated as Equal-weight, suggesting it is expected to perform in line with the market [4] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc., highlighting its financial performance, operational developments, market outlook, and associated risks.