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Chili's Is Winning on Value, Yet Its Parent Company's Stock Still Looks Cheap
The Motley Fool· 2026-03-07 19:05
Core Insights - Brinker International's main brand, Chili's, has become a strong operator in casual dining, with over 90% of its U.S. restaurants being company-owned, allowing for tight management control over operations [1] - The average restaurant-level profit for Chili's increased from approximately $370,000 to $790,000 by the end of fiscal 2025, yet the stock trades at a below-market multiple [2] - Chili's successfully repositioned itself with the "3 For Me" menu, offering full-service meals starting at $10.99, which has driven traffic and resulted in a 16.3% increase in same-store visits in 2025 [4] Financial Performance - In Q2 2026, Brinker reported an 8.6% growth in same-store sales and a 2.7% increase in traffic, following a strong 31% growth in the same quarter the previous year [5] - Restaurant-level margins improved from 11.9% in 2022 to 19.1% in the most recent quarter, although achieving further gains is becoming more challenging [8] - Free cash flow has grown at an average annual rate of 60% through Q2 2026, despite significant reinvestment in store redesigns and kitchen upgrades [8] Strategic Initiatives - Brinker is refreshing about 10% of its restaurants annually and plans to start increasing the net store count for Chili's in fiscal 2027, with expectations of higher returns on new builds due to improved profitability [9] - The company's pricing strategy is disciplined, with the $10.99 promotion accounting for less than 8% of total sales, allowing it to compete effectively against fast-casual chains [5] Valuation - Brinker trades at approximately 14 times forward earnings, significantly lower than peers like Darden Restaurants and Texas Roadhouse, which trade at 20 and 28 times, respectively, indicating a potential undervaluation for a consistently performing business [10]