Core Insights - ON Holding AG (ONON) has raised its full-year 2025 net sales growth forecast to 34% from 31% on a constant-currency basis, indicating strong demand across various channels and regions [1][8] - The company aims to double its net sales by 2026, projecting a minimum 30% constant currency CAGR from 2023 to 2026, with at least 23% growth expected in 2026 [2][8] - Key growth drivers include apparel, direct-to-consumer sales, and momentum in the Asia Pacific markets, alongside product innovations like the upcoming Cloudrunner Max [3][4][8] Sales and Financial Metrics - The updated sales forecast suggests reported net sales of CHF 2.98 billion for 2025, an increase from the previous estimate of CHF 2.91 billion [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ONON's current financial-year sales implies a year-over-year growth of 41.2%, while earnings per share are expected to decline by 12.7% [11] - Current estimates for sales in the next year (2026) are projected at CHF 4.49 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 20.64% [12] Competitive Positioning - ONON's shares have increased by 37.7% over the past month, outperforming the industry average rise of 17.6% [5] - The company trades at a forward P/E ratio of 28.85, which is higher than the industry average of 18.04, indicating a premium valuation compared to competitors like Deckers and Dollar General [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - On Holdings AG's stock has been declining as investors express concerns about its future growth prospects, particularly in light of Nike Inc.'s resurgence [1][2] Group 1: Growth Trajectory - There have been concerns since April regarding On's ability to sustain its growth trajectory, with Wall Street anticipating a solid third quarter report [2] - Telsey Advisory Group analyst Cristina Fernández predicts a "natural deceleration" in On's growth rate to 20% in the third quarter from 32% in the previous quarter [3] - Despite the anticipated deceleration, there is still "very good traffic" to On stores, and the brand is expected to benefit from strength in its tennis category and a strong wholesale order book [4] Group 2: Competitive Position - Concerns about Nike's rebound affecting On are considered "overblown," as On's diverse growth drivers across channels, geography, and product categories make it less vulnerable to Nike's improvements [5] - Management's comments suggest a focus on strategically controlling growth to sustain strong multi-year gains rather than indicating a decline in underlying demand [6] Group 3: Future Prospects - Analyst Janine Stichter believes On can sustain revenue growth exceeding 20% in the medium term, which is the highest among its peers, justifying a premium valuation [6] - Stichter has set a price target of $70 for On shares, highlighting the potential positive impact of recent product launches and events, such as the Cloudzone launch and Hellen Obiri's NYC Marathon win [6] - Upcoming product launches in 2026, including the relaunch of Cloudmonster 3 and Cloudrunner 3, are expected to contribute to continued growth, along with strong wholesale sell-through and share gains in the direct-to-consumer channel [7]