We recently published an article titled 10 Best Cruise Stocks to Buy Right Now. On January 16, Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Travel + Leisure Co. (NYSE:TNL) to $80 from $68 while maintaining an Overweight rating. In its 2026 sector outlook, the firm noted that gaming, lodging, and leisure fundamentals were relatively muted in 2025, with pockets of resilience concentrated among companies catering to older and higher-income consumers. Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley expects similar underlying tren ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of $4.02 billion, an increase of 4% year-over-year, and EBITDA of $990 million, up 7% year-over-year [17][18] - The fourth quarter revenue was $1.026 billion, with EBITDA of $272 million, reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth [15][18] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the year was $6.34, representing a 10% increase year-over-year [17][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Vacation Ownership segment saw gross sales rise by 8% year-over-year, driven by a 5% increase in tour flow in the fourth quarter, the strongest level of the year [16][18] - The Travel and Membership segment reported fourth quarter revenue of $148 million, down 6% year-over-year, with EBITDA of $47 million, down 10% [17][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong leisure demand as a key driver for its Vacation Ownership business, with a loyal owner base contributing to predictable cash flow [6][8] - The average FICO score for new originations remained above 740, indicating high-quality loans [17][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on brand expansion and optimizing its resort portfolio to drive sustainable, profitable growth [6][7] - A Resort Optimization Initiative is underway, which involves closing lower-performing resorts and replacing them with higher-demand properties [12][21] - The company aims to enhance owner experiences through technology investments and partnerships, such as those with Live Nation and Authentic Brands [11][62] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand for leisure travel and the company's ability to deliver another year of revenue growth and EBITDA margin expansion in 2026 [14][26] - The company expects EBITDA for 2026 to be in the range of $1.03 billion to $1.055 billion, reflecting 4%-7% year-over-year growth [14][24] Other Important Information - The company returned $449 million to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and share repurchases, with a new $750 million share repurchase authorization approved [19][20] - The company is committed to maintaining a disciplined capital allocation strategy while investing in organic growth [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the optimization initiative and its long-term impact on EBITDA? - Management indicated that 2025 was a catch-up year for the optimization initiative, with expectations for a return to normal growth in subsequent years [30][31] Question: How is the consumer demographic performing currently? - Management noted continued strong demand from consumers, with household incomes above $100,000 and improved FICO scores, reinforcing the value of vacation experiences [39][40] Question: What are the expectations for the Travel and Membership business moving forward? - Management expects the Travel and Membership segment to follow a consistent trend with disciplined cost management, contributing to EBITDA growth [93] Question: What is the anticipated loan loss provision for 2026? - Management expects the loan loss provision to decrease to around 20%, with a long-term goal of settling into the high teens [90][91] Question: Can you provide insights on the new brand launches and their expected contributions? - Management anticipates that new brands like Sports Illustrated and Eddie Bauer will grow as a percentage of overall sales, contributing positively to future growth [72][74]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of $4.02 billion, an increase of 4% year-over-year, and EBITDA of $990 million, reflecting a 7% growth [17][18] - The fourth quarter revenue was $1.026 billion, with EBITDA of $272 million, marking an 8% year-over-year increase [15][16] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the year was $6.34, up 10% from the previous year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Vacation Ownership segment saw gross sales rise by 8% year-over-year, driven by a 5% increase in tour flow during the fourth quarter [16][18] - The Travel and Membership segment reported revenue of $148 million in the fourth quarter, down 6% year-over-year, with EBITDA of $47 million, a 10% decline [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong leisure demand continuing into 2026, with early trends in Q1 consistent with expectations [14] - The average volume per guest (VPG) was reported at $3,359, up 6% year-over-year, indicating strong sales execution [16][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on brand expansion and optimizing its resort portfolio to ensure sustainable growth beyond 2026 [6][7] - A Resort Optimization Initiative is underway, which involves closing underperforming resorts and replacing them with higher-demand properties [12][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in delivering another year of revenue growth and EBITDA margin expansion in 2026, with EBITDA expected to be between $1.03 billion and $1.055 billion [14][25] - The company anticipates a continued focus on enhancing owner experiences and leveraging technology to improve operations [11][12] Other Important Information - The company returned $449 million to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and share repurchases, reflecting a commitment to disciplined capital allocation [19][20] - A new $750 million share repurchase authorization was approved, indicating confidence in the company's valuation [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the optimization initiative and its long-term impact on EBITDA? - Management indicated that 2025 was a catch-up year for the optimization initiative, with expectations for a return to normal growth in subsequent years [30][31] Question: How is the consumer demographic performing currently? - Management noted no significant changes in consumer demand, with household incomes rising above $100,000 and improved FICO scores contributing to strong performance [40][41] Question: What are the expectations for the loan loss provision in 2026? - The loan loss provision is expected to decrease to around 20%, with a long-term goal of settling into the high teens [44][92] Question: What is the outlook for the Travel and Membership business? - The Travel and Membership segment is expected to follow a consistent trend with disciplined cost management, contributing to EBITDA growth [94] Question: What is the sales contribution from new brands like Sports Illustrated and Eddie Bauer? - Management anticipates that these new brands will grow to represent a larger percentage of overall sales, with expectations for significant growth in the coming years [73][75]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved a revenue growth of 4% and an EBITDA growth of 7% compared to the previous year [5][17] - The fourth quarter revenue was $1.026 billion, with an EBITDA of $272 million, reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth [14][17] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the year was $6.34, representing a 10% increase year-over-year [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Vacation Ownership business saw gross sales growth of 8%, driven by a 5% increase in tour flow in the fourth quarter, marking the strongest year-over-year growth for the year [6][15] - The Travel and Membership segment reported a revenue of $148 million in the fourth quarter, down 6% year-over-year, with EBITDA of $47 million, down 10% [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong leisure demand continuing into 2026, with expectations for gross VOI sales to increase by 1%-5% year-over-year [23] - The average volume per guest is expected to be in the range of $3,175-$3,275, slightly lower than the previous year [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on brand expansion, optimizing its resort portfolio, and enhancing the owner experience through technology and partnerships [4][10] - The Resort Optimization Initiative aims to remove lower-demand resorts and replace them with higher-demand properties, which is expected to improve financial health and owner satisfaction [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand for leisure travel and the company's ability to deliver another year of revenue growth and EBITDA margin expansion in 2026 [13][24] - The company anticipates a net EBITDA benefit from the Resort Optimization Initiative, projecting EBITDA in the range of $1.03 billion-$1.055 billion for 2026 [23][24] Other Important Information - The company returned $449 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2025, with a new $750 million share repurchase authorization approved [18][19] - The company is investing in technology to enhance the vacation experience and deepen owner engagement [10][11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the optimization initiative and its long-term impact on EBITDA? - Management indicated that 2025 was a catch-up year for the optimization initiative, with expectations for a return to normal growth in subsequent years [28] Question: How is the consumer demographic performing currently? - Management noted continued strong demand from consumers, with household incomes above $100,000 and improved FICO scores, contributing to positive performance [38] Question: What are the expectations for the loan loss provision in 2026? - The company expects the loan loss provision to decrease to around 20%, with a trajectory towards the high teens over time [90] Question: What is the outlook for the Travel and Membership business? - The company models the Travel and Membership business to follow the 2025 trend line, focusing on disciplined cost management [92] Question: What is the sales contribution from new brands like Sports Illustrated and Eddie Bauer? - Management anticipates that these new brands will grow as a percentage of overall sales, aiming for high single digits this year and moving towards double digits in the coming years [72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total company revenue in Q3 2025 was $1,044 million, up 5% year over year [11] - Adjusted EBITDA was $266 million, up 10% year over year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin expanding 100 basis points to 25% [11][12] - Adjusted EPS increased by 15%, reflecting earnings expansion and the impact of share repurchases [11] - Adjusted free cash flow grew 23% year over year, with an expectation to generate approximately $500 million for the full year [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Vacation Ownership segment revenue grew 6% to $876 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing 14% to $231 million [12] - Gross VOI sales accelerated to $682 million, supported by a 2% tour flow growth and a VPG of $3,304, up 10% [12] - Travel and Membership segment revenue was $169 million, up 1% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA was $58 million, down 6% [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Tour flow remained healthy at 200,000 tours, indicating strong consumer appetite for travel [5] - The company reported that almost 70% of new buyers come from Gen X, Millennial, and Gen Z households, reflecting a shift in demographics [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its brand portfolio, enhancing owner and guest experiences, and driving operational discipline [6][8] - New brand developments include Sports Illustrated Resorts and Eddie Bauer Adventure Club, targeting distinct traveler profiles [6][7] - The company aims to deepen engagement with younger and more diverse travelers while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of leisure travel demand and the resilience of the customer base [4][8] - The company raised its adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint to $975 million for the full year, reflecting strong Q3 performance [17] - Management noted that booking pace remains consistent with the prior year, indicating stable consumer behavior [8] Other Important Information - The company returned $106 million to shareholders during the quarter, including $36 million in dividends and $70 million in share repurchases [15] - The liquidity position remains strong, nearing $1.1 billion, with net leverage expected to be below 3.3 times by year-end [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the strong performance in the VOI business? - Management attributed the strong performance to investments in digital tools and improved customer experiences, leading to higher satisfaction scores and increased household income among customers [21][23] Question: Are there additional opportunities for Sports Illustrated Resorts? - Management indicated that urban locations, particularly in sports towns, present significant opportunities for conversions rather than new developments [25][27] Question: What changes contributed to the 30% increase in travel club transactions? - Management highlighted refined strategies and a focus on profit-producing clubs as key factors driving transaction growth [30][31] Question: How does the company view the loan loss provision moving forward? - Management expects the long-term provision rate to settle back in the upper teens, with no signs of deterioration in delinquencies or defaults [85][86] Question: What is the outlook for new owner sales and margins? - Management anticipates that new owner sales will fluctuate but remain disciplined to keep margins in the 22% to 25% range [50][51]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated over $1 billion in revenue, $250 million in adjusted EBITDA, and $1.65 in adjusted earnings per share, all showing year-over-year increases [6][19] - Adjusted EBITDA grew 2% year-over-year, translating to a 4% adjusted EBITDA growth for the first half of the year [19] - The company returned $107 million of capital to shareholders in the quarter [5][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Vacation Ownership segment saw revenue grow 6% to $853 million, driven by a 3% increase in tours and a VPG of $3,251, which is up 7% from last year [20] - The Travel and Membership segment's revenue was $166 million, down 6% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA declining 11% to $55 million [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand remains strong across the core timeshare business, with tour growth improving sequentially from the first quarter and up 3% compared to 2024 [7] - The average household income for owners is approximately $118,000, with an average FICO score above 720 [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on growing the core vacation ownership business while leveraging data and technology to enhance customer experience [13] - New brand expansions include a new sales location in Nashville and the launch of the Accor Vacation Club in Asia [14][15] - The company aims to maintain a resilient balance sheet while returning excess cash to shareholders [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of the business and the resilience of the customer base, noting that spending on leisure travel is expected to grow mid-single digits per year over the next five years [7][8] - The company anticipates continued challenges in the Travel and Membership segment but remains committed to executing on core business strategies [25] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with over $800 million in liquidity, including $212 million in cash and cash equivalents [24] - The company is preparing for the launch of the WorldMark app in Q4 and has invested in AI for personalized experiences [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Visibility in the Travel and Membership segment - Management acknowledged challenges in the Travel and Membership segment due to industry consolidation and M&A activity impacting transaction volumes [30][31] Question: Average transaction size and financing - The increase in average transaction size is attributed to measured price increases and strong consumer demand, with no significant change in the propensity to finance [35][37] Question: VPG guidance and gross VOI sales - Management raised VPG guidance for the year but did not increase gross VOI sales due to expectations of continued tour growth [41][42] Question: Delinquency trends - Delinquency trends have moderated, and management is confident in the portfolio's strength, with a full-year provision of 21% [43][45] Question: Consumer health and income stratification - Management noted that higher household incomes correlate with better performance and lower delinquencies, with strong engagement from existing owners [52][56] Question: International opportunities with Accor - Management expressed optimism about the international market but emphasized that the U.S. remains the strongest market for timeshare [71][73] Question: New projects and their strategic importance - New projects like Margaritaville and Sports Illustrated are seen as opportunities to reach new customer segments and enhance overall sales [86][88]