Core Insights - The agricultural commodities market is experiencing significant volatility, with various soft commodities showing contrasting trends in prices and performance [2][12][13] Sugar Market - Nearby ICE sugar futures settled Q3 at 16.10 cents per pound, reflecting a bearish trend since the November 2023 high of 28.14 cents per pound [1] - World sugar futures 11 on the Intercontinental Exchange increased by 4% in Q3 but faced a 16.41% decline over the first nine months of 2025 [1] Coffee Market - Arabica coffee futures surged by 22.2% in Q3 due to concerns over Brazilian coffee crops, with prices reaching $3.7485 per pound on September 30, 2025, and $4.0875 per pound in mid-October [4][5] - Coffee futures were the best-performing soft commodities in Q3 and since the end of 2024, with a 17.23% increase over the first nine months of 2025 [5] Cocoa Market - Cocoa futures experienced a significant decline of 27.86% in Q3 after reaching record highs of $12,931 per ton in late 2024, marking a 42.19% drop over the first nine months of 2025 [6][7] - Cocoa closed Q3 at $6,749 per metric ton and fell below $5,900 in mid-October 2025, indicating a bearish trend likely due to commodity cyclicality [7] Cotton and FCOJ Markets - Cotton futures decreased by only 0.77% in Q3 and were 3.85% lower than the 2024 closing price at the end of September 2025, settling at 65.77 cents per pound [8][9] - Frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) futures gained 11.90% in Q3 but were the worst-performing soft commodity over the first three quarters, with a 51.04% decline [10][11] Market Outlook - The outlook for Q4 suggests that while coffee prices remain elevated, cocoa and FCOJ are in bearish trends, with sugar and cotton also experiencing downward pressure but at levels where commodity cyclicality may provide support [12] - The soft commodities sector has shifted from being a leader in 2024 to a laggard in 2025, with expectations of volatility influenced by weather, crop diseases, trade issues, and geopolitics [13]