Core Viewpoint - The electric vehicle (EV) sector, particularly Rivian Automotive, is experiencing a potential turnaround after a significant downturn, with Rivian's stock showing signs of recovery despite ongoing unprofitability [1][2]. Company Overview - Rivian remains unprofitable but has substantial backing and plans to expand its manufacturing capabilities throughout the decade [2][8]. - The current stock price is approximately $15 per share, having rebounded from previous lows, but it has remained in a similar trading range since late 2022 [2][10]. Product and Market Position - Rivian launched its R1 models in 2022, which include a premium SUV and truck, alongside commercial delivery vans for clients like Amazon [2][3]. - The R1 models are well-received but have not achieved widespread adoption due to their high price points, starting at $75,000 [3][4]. - Quarterly deliveries peaked in 2023 but have since declined, with Rivian delivering just over 10,000 vehicles in the last quarter, indicating a small market presence [3][5]. Expansion Plans - To address delivery challenges, Rivian is expanding its Illinois factory and has begun construction on a new facility in Georgia, aimed at producing more affordable R2 and R3 models [4][5]. - Achieving scale is crucial for profitability, as competitors like Tesla only became profitable after reaching significant delivery volumes [5][10]. Financial Projections - Rivian's current revenue stands at $5 billion, with potential growth in quarterly deliveries to over 50,000 if R2 and R3 production scales successfully [7][10]. - This could lead to projected annual revenue of around $20 billion and net earnings of approximately $1 billion by the end of the decade, assuming a profit margin between 0% and 10% [7][10]. Valuation Insights - Rivian's market capitalization is currently $17.7 billion, and traditional valuation methods based on earnings or cash flow are not applicable due to negative figures [6][8]. - If Rivian can successfully scale production and achieve positive earnings, it may improve its financial standing significantly [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive's stock has declined following a report of quarterly deliveries and a reduction in its full-year outlook, as the market reassesses demand dynamics influenced by tax-credit changes [1][2] Delivery and Production Performance - Rivian delivered 13,201 vehicles in Q3, representing a 32% increase year-over-year and surpassing analyst expectations, while production was lower at 10,720 units [4] - The company has narrowed its 2025 delivery guidance to a range of 41,500 to 43,500 units, indicating a belief that the previous high-end target is no longer achievable despite a strong Q3 performance [5] Market Dynamics and Guidance Changes - The expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles on October 1 has removed a significant demand driver, contributing to uncertainty in demand and costs for the remainder of the year [6] - Rivian's management has indicated a relatively light fourth quarter compared to last year's 14,183 deliveries, reflecting the impact of changing market conditions [5][6] Financial Outlook - The company is working towards sustained profitability, having achieved its first positive gross profit in Q4 2024, with a noted reduction of $31,000 in automotive cost of goods sold per vehicle delivered compared to Q4 2023 [7] - Management has guided for "modest" gross profit in 2025, setting expectations for future financial performance [7] Stock Valuation - Following the recent stock decline, Rivian's valuation appears more reasonable, suggesting a reassessment of its growth potential in light of the latest developments [8]