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Samsara Plunges 57% in a Year: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
ZACKS· 2026-02-18 16:50
Core Insights - Samsara Inc. (IOT) shares have decreased by 57.1% over the past year, significantly underperforming the Zacks Internet - Software industry's decline of 20.1% and the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's return of 18.1% [1] - Despite the decline in share price, Samsara is trading at a premium valuation with a forward price-to-sales ratio of 7.81, compared to the industry's 3.87, and holds a Zacks Value Score of F [4] Company Performance - Samsara has gained from the adoption of its Connected AI Platform, adding 133 new customers with annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeding $100K, totaling 2,771 in Q2 FY26 [8] - The company ended Q2 FY26 with over 147 customers contributing $1 million in ARR [9] - Samsara is positioned to benefit from the global shift towards Industry 4.0, integrating digital technologies into manufacturing, industrial, and transport processes [9] Market Dynamics - The fleet management market, where Samsara operates, is projected to grow at a CAGR of 13.3% from 2025 to 2030 [10] - Samsara is enhancing its platform capabilities by integrating artificial intelligence, including features like Samsara Assistant and Samsara Intelligent Experiences [11] - The company processes over 20 trillion operational data points to improve its AI models, which helps in delivering accurate predictions and reducing customer churn [12] Competitive Landscape - Samsara faces strong competition in the vehicle telematics market from companies like Motive, Lytx, Verizon, Trimble, and Geotab, as well as in the industrial IoT space from PTC [13] - Despite a robust non-GAAP gross margin of 78% in Q2 FY26, the non-GAAP operating margin was only 19%, indicating pressure from rising competition [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Samsara's Q3 FY26 earnings suggests an 18.8% growth, with net margins expected to hover around breakeven [15] Strategic Outlook - The video telematics market remains underpenetrated, presenting an opportunity for Samsara to capture significant market share despite competition from Trimble and Verizon [16] - The company has recently turned profitable, validating its business strategy, and is recommended to be held as a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) stock [17]