CopperEdge signal integrity solutions
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Should You Hold on to SMTC Stock Despite its 47% Decline in 3 Months?
ZACKSยท 2025-04-02 15:10
Core Viewpoint - Semtech (SMTC) has experienced a significant decline in its stock price, dropping 47.3% over the past three months, which is worse than the performance of the Zacks Semiconductor - Analog and Mixed industry, the Zacks Computer and Technology sector, and the S&P 500 index [1][3]. Group 1: Business Challenges - The underperformance of Semtech is primarily attributed to challenges in its CopperEdge business, which provides signal integrity solutions embedded in active copper cables used in server racks [3]. - A major customer of Semtech's CopperEdge solutions is undergoing architectural changes in its server racks, leading to a projected sales drop below $50 million for fiscal 2026 [4]. - Following the sales disclosure, multiple lawsuits were filed against Semtech, raising concerns about potential violations of security laws and further diminishing investor confidence [5]. Group 2: Innovations and Opportunities - Semtech has launched the 1.6T Octal Small Form-factor Pluggable (OSFP) Active Copper Cable to tackle thermal challenges, high costs, and improve transmission speed for AI and machine learning workloads [6]. - This new interconnect solution, developed in collaboration with Amphenol, reportedly consumes 90% less power than digital signal processing alternatives while ensuring low latency [7]. - The introduction of the OSFP Active Copper Cable is expected to aid in the recovery of Semtech's CopperEdge business, alongside strong demand for its LoRa technology and LoRaWAN standards among industrial customers [8]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects Semtech's revenues to grow by 15.9% for fiscal 2026 and 10.6% for fiscal 2027, with EPS expected to increase by 96.6% for fiscal 2026 and 27.4% for fiscal 2027 [9]. Group 4: Strategic Partnerships - Semtech has co-founded the LoRa Alliance to promote the standardization of LoRaWAN technology, collaborating with partners like Netmore, MultiTech, and Acklio [10]. - The company is also working with major players such as Amazon Web Services to integrate LoRaWAN into its IoT Core, enhancing Semtech's market position [11][12]. - These partnerships are expected to diversify Semtech's opportunities, particularly in the private cellular networks market for enterprises [12]. Group 5: Conclusion - Semtech is addressing its CopperEdge business challenges with innovative solutions, and the demand for its LoRaWAN products is likely to support stock recovery in the future [13].