Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast that TransUnion (TRU) will report quarterly earnings of $0.99 per share, indicating no change from the previous year, with revenues expected to reach $1.1 billion, reflecting a 5.6% increase year-over-year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.3% higher over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Estimates - The consensus estimate for 'Revenue- U.S. Markets' is $853.91 million, showing a year-over-year change of +5.5% [5]. - 'Revenue- International' is expected to reach $248.04 million, indicating a +5.4% change from the previous year [5]. - Total gross revenue is projected at $1.10 billion, reflecting a +5.5% year-over-year change [5]. Segment Revenue Estimates - 'Revenue- U.S. Markets gross revenue- Financial Services' is forecasted to be $392.61 million, a +9.5% increase from the prior year [6]. - 'Revenue- U.S. Markets gross revenue- Emerging Verticals' is estimated at $321.70 million, indicating a +4.3% change [6]. - 'Revenue- International Gross Revenue- Canada' is projected at $39.93 million, a +2.9% change year-over-year [7]. - 'Revenue- International Gross Revenue- Latin America' is expected to be $33.80 million, reflecting a -2% change [7]. - 'Revenue- International Gross Revenue- UK' is anticipated to reach $65.00 million, indicating a +14.8% change [8]. - 'Revenue- International Gross Revenue- Asia Pacific' is forecasted at $26.66 million, a +1.8% change [8]. - 'Revenue- International Gross Revenue- Africa' is expected to be $17.03 million, reflecting a +7.8% change [9]. - 'Revenue- International Gross Revenue- India' is projected at $66.14 million, indicating a +4.2% change [9]. Adjusted EBITDA - The average prediction for 'Adjusted EBITDA- U.S. Markets' is $322.74 million, compared to $315.80 million reported in the same quarter last year [10]. Stock Performance - Shares of TransUnion have shown a +10% return over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +5.4% change [10].

Core Insights - The Canadian credit market experienced mixed outcomes in Q1 2025, with growth driven by increased borrowing from young Canadians and newcomers, while subprime consumers faced rising delinquency rates [1][2][3] Group 1: Credit Market Growth - Total outstanding credit debt in Canada reached $2.5 trillion in Q1 2025, reflecting a 4.7% year-over-year growth [2] - Gen Z consumers contributed significantly to this growth, with their outstanding balances increasing by 30.6% year-over-year, accounting for $12 billion or 10.3% of total new balance growth [3] - New Canadians added $2.6 billion in new credit balances, marking a 6.3% increase year-over-year [3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Risk Tiers - Non-mortgage debt grew by 2.4%, with below prime average consumer balances increasing by 4.4%, and subprime consumers seeing the highest increase at 6.3% [5] - The average non-mortgage balances per consumer varied across risk tiers, with subprime consumers averaging $23,638, reflecting a 6.3% year-over-year increase [6] - Serious delinquency rates for consumers 60 days or more delinquent rose by 11 basis points year-over-year to 2.71% in Q1 2025, influenced by the influx of new-to-credit consumers [15] Group 3: Regional Disparities - There are significant regional differences in delinquency trends, with Alberta experiencing the highest delinquency rates due to economic volatility, while Quebec had the lowest [17][18] - Average debt per borrower varied by province, with P.E.I. and Newfoundland having the highest average debt levels, which may increase vulnerability to financial strain [9] Group 4: Economic Conditions and Consumer Credit Index - The Canada Consumer Credit Index dropped to 100.3, down almost 6 points from the previous year, indicating muted credit demand amid economic uncertainty [12] - Economic conditions have led to a widening financial divide among credit consumers, with some benefiting from improved inflation and interest rates while others continue to face challenges [14]