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Peloton vs. Planet Fitness: Which Fitness Stock Has Stronger Upside?
ZACKSยท 2025-11-26 16:30
Core Insights - Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) and Planet Fitness, Inc. (PLNT) represent contrasting strategies in the fitness market, with Peloton focusing on connected at-home equipment and digital subscriptions, while Planet Fitness emphasizes an extensive network of affordable gyms [1] Summary of PTON - Peloton's profitability is improving, with an adjusted EBITDA of $118 million in Q1 fiscal 2026, exceeding expectations by $18 million, and generating $67 million in free cash flow, a notable improvement from the previous year [2] - The company has launched its largest product refresh, including the Cross Training Series and Peloton IQ AI coaching, which is expected to enhance engagement and shift towards premium hardware [3] - Peloton is expanding its distribution channels, opening 10 micro stores in the U.S. and partnering with Johnson Fitness & Wellness, which broadens its reach across 46 states [4] - Despite operational improvements, Peloton faces challenges with a 6% decline in paid Connected Fitness subscriptions year-over-year, contributing to a 6% revenue drop in Q1 [5] - The company is dealing with a product recall of the Original Series Bike+, resulting in a $16.5 million inventory accrual, which may impact member sentiment and usage [6] Summary of PLNT - Planet Fitness is experiencing strong demand, ending Q3 2025 with approximately 20.7 million members and achieving 6.9% same-club sales growth, leading to a 13% year-over-year revenue increase [7] - The High School Summer Pass program saw a 30% year-over-year increase in participation, attracting 3.7 million teens and fostering long-term loyalty among Gen Z consumers [8] - The company opened 35 new clubs in Q3 2025, bringing the total to 2,795, and is actively pursuing optimized club formats and upgraded equipment [9] - While membership trends are strong, attrition remains elevated due to the introduction of click-to-cancel, with management expecting higher churn through Q4 2025 [11] - Approximately 80% of the same-club sales growth in Q3 2025 came from price increases, raising concerns about potential consumer resistance to future price hikes [12] Comparative Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Peloton's fiscal 2026 sales implies flat growth, while EPS is expected to grow by 140% year-over-year [13] - For Planet Fitness, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 sales and EPS indicates year-over-year increases of 10.8% and 15.4%, respectively [15] Price Performance - PTON stock has decreased by 30.2% over the past year, while PLNT shares have increased by 9.9% during the same period [16] Valuation - PTON is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 1.12X, below its median of 1.22X, whereas PLNT's forward sales multiple is at 6.47X, above its median of 5.30X [22] Conclusion - Both companies are making significant progress in their recovery efforts, with Peloton showing signs of stabilization through innovation and expanded distribution, while Planet Fitness benefits from strong demand and brand momentum [21][23]