Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a short - position allocation is recommended for the medium term [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - OPEC+ has decided to increase the daily production by 548,000 barrels in August and is expected to increase by about 550,000 barrels in September. However, the increase in OPEC's production quota does not equal the increase in actual production, and the actual production increase is still in the hands of Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia intends to control oil prices, the actual production increase will be slow. Although OPEC is further lifting production restrictions, the oil price showed a trend of first falling and then rising instead of a sharp decline [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 93 cents to $67.93 per barrel, a 1.39% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose $1.28 to $69.58 per barrel, a 1.87% increase. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 2.13% at 512 yuan per barrel [1] - OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August. The monthly production increase approved in May, June, and July was 411,000 barrels per day, and 138,000 barrels per day in April. Since April, the production released by OPEC+ will reach 1.918 million barrels per day, and only 280,000 barrels per day of the previously voluntarily cut 2.2 million barrels per day remains unrecovered. It is reported that OPEC+ oil - producing countries will approve another significant production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September on August 3 [1] - Analyst Priyanka Sachdeva of financial institution Phillip Nova pointed out that the continuous uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policy will continue to put pressure on oil prices. The current oil price has declined under pressure due to OPEC+'s decision to increase crude oil production in August more than expected. The only factor supporting the oil price is the weakening of the US dollar [1] - Ukraine used long - range drones to attack a refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai. The refinery is one of the major oil - processing companies in southern Russia [1] - The first round of the Gaza cease - fire negotiation in Doha ended without an agreement. The Israeli negotiation team did not have sufficient authorization to reach an agreement with Hamas [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney said it is "highly likely" to list a new oil pipeline to the west coast of Canada as a national construction project. A few weeks ago, the Canadian Parliament passed Bill C - 5, which simplifies the approval process for national important development projects [1] Investment Logic - Although OPEC decides to further lift the production limit by 550,000 barrels per day starting from August and will completely lift the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production limit before October, the oil price did not drop significantly. The actual production increase is still in the hands of Saudi Arabia, and if it wants to control the oil price, the actual production increase will be slow [2] Strategy - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a short - position allocation is recommended for the medium term [3] Risk - Downside risks include the US lifting sanctions on Iranian oil and macro black - swan events; upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle - East conflicts [3]

原油日报 | 2025-06-26 EIA商业原油库存延续大幅下降 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨55美分，收于每桶64.92美元，涨幅为0.85%；8月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格上涨54美分，收于每桶67.68美元，涨幅为0.80%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.77%，报505元/桶。 2.、阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至6月23日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存为1912万桶， 比一周前上涨3.8%，达到五周以来的最高水平，因为用于航运和发电的燃料油库存飙升了22%。其中轻质馏分油 库存减少133.2万桶至673.8万桶，中质馏分油库存增加15.1万桶至204.4万桶，重质残渣燃料油库存增加188.2万桶至 1033.8万桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、巴西国家能源政策委员会（CNPE）：巴西将生物柴油在柴油中的强制掺混比例从14%上调至15%，将汽油中乙 醇强制掺混比例从27%上调至30%。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、美国至6月20日当周EIA原油库存 -583.6万桶，预期-79.7万桶，前值-1147.3万桶；当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库 ...

国际原子能机构宣布伊朗违反核不扩散条约 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌11美分，收于每桶68.04美元，跌幅为0.16%；8月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格下跌41美分，收于每桶69.36美元，跌幅为0.59%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.67%，报494元/桶。 2、由35个成员国组成的国际原子能机构理事会周四通过一项决议，正式宣布伊朗违反了核不扩散义务，这是近20 年来的第一次。"理事会发现，自2019年以来，伊朗多次未能履行其义务，就伊朗多个未申报地点的未申报核材料 和活动向原子能机构提供充分和及时的合作，构成不遵守国际原子能机构保障协议规定的义务"，国际原子能机构 理事会决议文本称。伊朗谴责国际原子能机构的决议，称这是一个没有技术或法律基础的"政治"决定，计划对此 采取额外反制措施。（来源：Bloomberg） 原油日报 | 2025-06-13 3、即便美国总统特朗普决定退出，G7多数国家仍准备单独行动，下调对俄罗斯石油的价格上限。G7领导人定于6 月15日至17日在加拿大会晤，届时将讨论2022年底首次达成的油价上限机制。该机制规定，俄罗斯石油若以不超 过60美元 ...

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 20 cents to settle at $62.69 per barrel, a gain of 0.32%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose 13 cents to settle at $65.54 per barrel, a gain of 0.20%. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 0.87% at 465 yuan per barrel [1] - Trump said he had a 2 - hour call with Putin, and "Russia - Ukraine will immediately start negotiations for a cease - fire and more importantly, to end the war". Putin said the call was rich and candid, and Russia advocates a peaceful solution to the Ukraine crisis [1] - Goldman Sachs is cautious about the oil price outlook. It maintains its forecast for Brent/WTI crude oil prices at $60/$56 for the rest of 2025 and $56/$52 for 2026, lower than forward prices. It has raised its forecast for Iranian crude supply to 3.6 million barrels per day from the second half of 2025 to 2026 [1] - The EU Commission's trade commissioner will propose to G7 finance ministers to lower the current $60 per - barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil. EU officials suggest reducing it to $50 per barrel [1] - Trump's tax - cut bill, worth trillions of dollars, got approval from a key House committee, but faced obstacles earlier due to demands from conservative Republicans [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Global refinery profits have significantly recovered recently, with gasoline and fuel oil crack spreads rebounding and diesel crack spreads also rising. Reasons include supply disruptions at refineries, strong demand in Africa and Latin America, reduced exports from some major countries, and refinery closures in the US and Europe. In the short - term, crack spreads will remain firm [2] Group 3: Strategy - The short - term outlook for oil prices is neutral, and a medium - term short position is recommended [3]

⑤国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌1.03%报3299.20美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌2.25% 报32.82美元/盎司； ⑥国际油价大幅走低，美油主力合约收跌3.64%，报58.22美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌3.37%，报 61.15美元/桶； ⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.43%报99.64，离岸人民币对美元跌2个基点报7.2689； ⑧伦敦基本金属收盘全线下跌，LME期铜跌3.40%报9125.50美元/吨，LME期铝跌3.18%报2391.50美元/ 吨； ①美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.35%报40669.36点，标普500指数涨0.15%报5569.06点，纳指跌 0.09%报17446.34点； ②大型科技股多数下跌，特斯拉跌逾3%，亚马逊跌逾1%，脸书跌近1%，谷歌跌0.85%，英伟达跌 0.09%，微软涨0.31%，苹果涨0.61%； ③热门中概股涨跌不一，嘉楠科技跌近10%，百胜中国跌超7%，小马智行跌逾5%，霸王茶姬跌逾5%， 蔚来跌逾4%，好未来跌逾3%。涨幅方面，世纪互联涨超11%，金山云涨逾9%，万国数据涨超5%，路 特斯科技涨逾5%； ④欧洲三大股指收盘小 ...

原油系期价全线走低，政策冲击、供需博弈，谁是主导？分析师称：若EIA坐实过剩，油价或进一步下 探。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

能源日报 | 2025-04-11 关税威胁仍存，油价再度回落 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所5月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌2.28美元，收于每桶60.07美元，跌幅为3.66%；6月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌2.15美元，收于每桶63.33美元，跌幅为3.28%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.41%，报464元/ 桶。 2、据英国金融时报，高管们警告称，美国页岩油生产商正面临多年来最严重的威胁，特朗普的贸易战引发的原油 价格突然下跌，已将该行业的部分企业推向破产边缘。自特朗普上周宣布"解放日"关税以来，美国油价已下跌12%， 低于得克萨斯州许多生产商表示需要实现收支平衡的水平，这引发了人们的担忧，即该行业可能被迫闲置钻井平 台。欧佩克最近提高产量的决定也敲响了警钟。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩对美国总统特朗普暂停对其他国家的商品征收关税的决定表示欢迎。"这是稳定全球 经济的重要一步，"她在10日上午的一份声明中说。此前，特朗普表示对部分贸易伙伴暂停实施所谓的对等关税， 为期90天。冯德莱恩9日重申了欧盟向特朗普政府提出的"零对零"关税提议，以解决他们认为两个地区在贸易政 ...