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外汇波动是否推动加密货币需求-Global EM Strategist-Does FX Volatility Drive Crypto Demand
2025-11-04 01:56
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **Emerging Markets (EM)** and the relationship between **foreign exchange (FX) volatility** and **cryptocurrency demand**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Neutral Stance on DXY**: The company has shifted to a neutral stance on the DXY index, indicating a balanced view on the US dollar's strength against other currencies [6][9][12]. 2. **Funding Currency Diversification**: Investors are encouraged to diversify funding currencies to enhance carry profiles, particularly considering EUR or JPY for long EM positions [6][9][12]. 3. **Demand for Cryptocurrencies**: Contrary to the belief that higher FX volatility increases demand for cryptocurrencies, the analysis suggests that demand actually decreases as FX volatility rises, indicating that cryptocurrencies are perceived more as risky assets rather than safe havens [6][9][20][41]. 4. **Emerging Markets' Positioning**: The EM markets are well-positioned for inflows due to good risk appetite and moderate foreign buying of local bonds year-to-date, with little change in country narratives [6][9][12]. 5. **Impact of FX Volatility**: A statistically significant negative correlation was found between FX volatility and crypto demand, with a 1 standard deviation increase in FX volatility leading to a 3.2% decline in monthly active crypto users [41][52]. 6. **Country-Specific Analysis**: The analysis indicates substantial cross-country heterogeneity in crypto adoption, with countries like the US, Russia, and Turkey showing higher engagement compared to others like China and Angola, which have restrictive regulations [32][41]. 7. **Future Research Directions**: The report suggests exploring alternative measures of country risk beyond FX volatility and differentiating between stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies to better understand demand dynamics [20][54][56]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Technical Support for Panama**: The report mentions that Panama has shown technical tailwinds and reduced downgrade risks, which could be beneficial for its credit outlook [5][74]. 2. **Korea's Corporate Reforms**: Anticipated reforms in Korea could lead to significant foreign equity inflows, positively impacting the KOSPI index, although the effects on FX and rates may be modest [4][73]. 3. **Global Crypto Adoption Trends**: As of 2025, the global active crypto app user base is heavily concentrated in a few large markets, with emerging markets like Pakistan and Nigeria accounting for significant shares of activity [22][23]. 4. **Regulatory Environment**: The evolving regulatory landscape for digital assets globally is highlighted, emphasizing the risks associated with investing in cryptocurrencies [56][57][58]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications for emerging markets and the dynamics of cryptocurrency demand in relation to FX volatility.