Core Insights - Polymarket has received approval from the CFTC to operate as a regulated exchange in the U.S. [1][2][4] - The approval allows Polymarket to onboard U.S. brokerages and customers directly, facilitating trading on U.S. venues [3][7] - The platform has made significant progress in the prediction market, raising $2 billion at a $9 billion valuation [6] Regulatory Developments - The CFTC issued an amended order of designation, enabling Polymarket to operate an intermediated trading platform [2][7] - As part of the approval, Polymarket has developed enhanced surveillance systems and market supervision policies [5] Operational Enhancements - Polymarket plans to implement additional rules and processes for intermediated trading before its official U.S. return [5] - The platform aims to leverage traditional market infrastructure, custody, and reporting channels for trading [3]

Core Insights - Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is investing up to $2 billion in the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, indicating a significant move towards mainstream adoption of prediction markets [1][3] - The investment values Polymarket at approximately $8 billion pre-deal and $9 billion post-deal, reflecting a strong market position [2] - ICE plans to distribute Polymarket's event-driven data to institutional clients and explore tokenization of financial instruments, marking a notable shift in traditional finance's approach to blockchain technology [3][5] Investment Details - The investment is made in cash and is not expected to impact ICE's 2025 financial outlook [7] - Following the announcement, ICE shares rose about 4% in pre-market trading, indicating positive market reception [6] Market Context - The deal represents one of the largest steps by Wall Street into blockchain-based prediction markets, which have been considered too experimental for traditional finance [3][5] - Polymarket has been operating mainly outside the U.S. since a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022, which included a $1.4 million fine [4] - The acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange, for $112 million in July 2023, positions Polymarket for a regulated relaunch of event-based contracts in the U.S. [5] Competitive Landscape - Polymarket's 30-day decentralized exchange (DEX) volume was approximately $1.16 billion, while U.S.-regulated Kalshi reported about $1.3 billion in September, highlighting growing interest in event-based trading [6]