Core Insights - Shifting economics are impacting landfill gas to renewable natural gas (RNG) projects, with waste companies adjusting their RNG portfolios based on D3 RIN prices [2] - RIN prices have decreased by approximately one dollar in October compared to the previous year, leading to Jefferies lowering its long-term credit expectation from $2.50 to $2.20 [3] - Waste Connections is facing "cost creep and delays" in its RNG projects, prompting a delay in planned capital spending [4] Company-Specific Insights - Waste Connections had previously expected a 1-1 ratio between investment and earnings from RNG projects, but this has shifted to a potential 2-1 ratio due to current RIN prices around $2.25 [5] - WM plans to delay the sale of some RINs to the fourth quarter to capitalize on potential price increases [6] - Republic Services may pivot towards using landfill gas for electricity generation instead of RNG to meet rising energy demands from data centers [6] Industry Trends - Analysts attribute the decline in RIN prices to the EPA's conservative proposals regarding future credit volumes, which raises concerns about long-term demand for renewable natural gas in transportation [7] - Despite current RIN prices, waste companies can still achieve returns on their RNG investments, but may consider alternative outlets or revert to landfill gas-to-electricity projects if prices remain low [8]