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Will Intercontinental Exchange Pull Off a Surprise in Q1 Earnings?
ZACKSยท 2025-04-28 14:00
Core Viewpoint - Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) is anticipated to show improvements in both revenue and earnings for the first quarter of 2025, with expected revenues of $2.46 billion, reflecting a 7.4% year-over-year growth, and earnings per share estimated at $1.70, indicating a 14.8% increase from the previous year [1][2]. Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ICE's first-quarter revenues is $2.46 billion, which represents a 7.4% growth compared to the same period last year [1]. - The Fixed Income and Data Services segment is projected to generate revenues of $603 million, while an internal estimate suggests $618.9 million [5]. - The Data and Connectivity Services revenues are expected to rebound to between $240 million and $245 million, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate at $1.9 billion [6]. - The Mortgage Technology segment's revenues are estimated at $512 million, with an internal estimate of $541.3 million [7]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is $1.70, which has increased by 2.4% over the past 30 days [2]. - ICE has an Earnings ESP of +0.51%, indicating a favorable outlook for an earnings beat [3]. Factors Influencing Performance - Strong trends in fixed-income data and analytics, along with growth in other data and network services, are expected to positively impact ICE's first-quarter performance [4]. - The Exchange segment is likely to benefit from a high retention rate of existing customers, new customer additions, and increased trading activity in U.S. equity markets [6]. Expense Projections - Total expenses are expected to rise by 4.5% to $971.6 million due to higher compensation, professional expenses, and technology costs [8]. - GAAP operating expenses are projected to be between $1.22 billion and $1.23 billion, while adjusted operating expenses are estimated to be between $965 million and $975 million [9]. Volume Growth - ICE reported a 23% increase in first-quarter average daily volume (ADV), with Natural Gas ADV up 33% and Energy ADV up 24% year-over-year [10].