Core Insights - MongoDB reported strong Q2 results, exceeding analyst expectations, and raised its full-year earnings forecast by 22% at the midpoint of its guidance range, leading to a stock price increase of over 30% in after-hours trading on August 26, 2025 [2][3] Growth - MongoDB's revenue has grown at an average annual rate of 32.4% over the last three years, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's growth rate of 5.3% [7] - Quarterly revenues increased by 24% to $591.4 million from $478.1 million year-over-year, compared to a 6.1% increase for the S&P 500 [7] Profitability - The company's profit margins are notably lower than most companies in Trefis coverage, with an operating income of -$165 million and an operating margin of -7.5%, compared to 18.8% for the S&P 500 [6][7] - Net income for the past four quarters was -$79 million, resulting in a negative net margin of -3.5%, while adjusted net income was $360 million, yielding a healthy 16% net margin [13] Financial Stability - MongoDB's balance sheet is strong, with debt at just $36 million against a market cap of $23 billion, resulting in a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.2% [13] - Cash and equivalents totaled $2.3 billion out of $3.5 billion in assets, producing a high cash-to-assets ratio of 66.2% [13] Downturn Resilience - MDB stock has underperformed the S&P 500 during recent downturns, with a significant drop of 76.5% from $585.03 to $137.35 between November 2021 and November 2022, compared to a 25.4% decline for the S&P 500 [9][13] - The stock has not returned to its pre-crisis peak, trading near $215 after a post-crisis high of $500.90 on February 11, 2024 [13] Overall Assessment - Despite a steep valuation of 10x trailing revenue, it is justified by MongoDB's strong growth track record, with high-teens growth expected to continue [10] - The stock's current P/S ratio of 10.3 is significantly higher than the S&P 500's 3.3, and its P/FCF ratio of 96 is much higher than the S&P 500's 22 [4][7]

Core Viewpoint - MongoDB is set to report earnings on June 4, 2025, with historical data indicating a tendency for negative stock reactions post-earnings announcements, as evidenced by a 55% decline rate over the past five years [1][3]. Earnings Estimates - Consensus estimates predict earnings of $0.66 per share on revenues of $527.5 million, compared to $0.51 per share on sales of $450.6 million in the same quarter last year [3]. - MongoDB's current market capitalization stands at $15 billion, with $2.0 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, alongside an operating loss of $216 million and a net loss of $129 million during the same period [3]. Historical Performance - Over the last five years, there have been 20 earnings data points for MongoDB, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 45% of the time [6]. - The median of the 9 positive returns is 19%, while the median of the 11 negative returns is -10% [6]. - The percentage of positive returns drops to 36% when considering data from the last three years [6]. Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders can utilize historical patterns to inform their strategies, either by positioning themselves before earnings releases or analyzing the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post-release [2][4]. - A less risky strategy involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns, allowing traders to position themselves accordingly based on positive 1D returns [4][5].