The Western Union Company (NYSE:WU) FY Conference November 19, 2025 09:45 AM ET Company ParticipantsDevin B. McGranahan - President and CEOBryan Keane - Head of U.S. FinTech PracticeBryan KeaneOkay, welcome. We're excited at Western Union here. My name's Bryan Keane. I Head up the U.S. FinTech practice on the research side here at Citi, and we're excited to have Devin here to talk through Western Union's new outlook. They just had an analyst day, which we were just talking about. There is a lot to talk abou ...

Core Insights - Remitly Global's shares fell 23.7% following the release of its third-quarter results and preliminary 2026 guidance, which disappointed investors [1][5]. Financial Performance - Active customers increased by 21% to 8.9 million, leading to a 35% rise in send volume to $19.5 billion [3]. - Revenue grew by 25% to $419.5 million, surpassing estimates of $413.7 million, despite a declining take rate [3][4]. - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 29% to $61.2 million [3]. - The company reported a GAAP profit of $0.04 per share, translating to a net income of $8.8 million [4]. Guidance and Market Reaction - Remitly raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $1.619 billion and $1.621 billion, indicating a growth rate of 28% [4][5]. - The company anticipates positive GAAP net income for the year and adjusted EBITDA of $234 million to $236 million [5]. - However, the initial guidance for 2026 projected revenue growth in the high teens, which is a significant slowdown compared to 2025 and below the average analyst estimate of 19.2% [5][6]. Valuation - Following the sell-off, Remitly's forward P/E ratio is positioned at 12 based on 2026 adjusted EPS estimates, suggesting it may be well-priced for potential growth [6].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $144.3 million, down from $150.4 million in the same period last year [19] - Net income was $7.8 million, with adjusted EBITDA at $21.6 million and adjusted diluted EPS at $0.35 per share, all showing year-over-year declines [10][24] - Total volume sent increased by 4%, while total transactions sent decreased by over 5% year-over-year [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail transactions remain the foundation of the business, but the number of transactions decreased while the principal amount sent increased [10][11] - Digital transactions grew nearly 70% year-over-year, indicating strong growth in the digital segment [13][21] - The company invested more in digital marketing than ever before, which is expected to continue driving growth [13][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Four out of five top markets saw a decrease in transactions sent, despite total volume sent increasing significantly [11][19] - The overall market for remittances to Latin America remains resilient, but consumer behavior is shifting towards sending larger amounts less frequently [8][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining profitability while strategically investing in growth, particularly in the digital business [27] - The integration of La Nationale agents onto the Intermex tech platform is expected to streamline operations and reduce costs [16] - The company is committed to enhancing its omnichannel strategy, with digital being a critical component for future growth [13][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenging economic, political, and immigration backdrop affecting the business model [7] - There is a belief that the current consumer behavior shift is not long-term, and the retail market will recover [34][106] - The company is revising its full-year guidance due to increased uncertainty and volatility in market conditions [25][26] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $151.8 million in cash and generated over $10 million in free cash flow [17][24] - Total debt decreased to $147.4 million from $156.6 million at year-end [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Near-term trends and behavior on retail vs digital side - Management noted that digital transactions grew much faster than retail, with digital growth at 70% year-over-year and increasing to 80% in April [32][34] Question: Revised full-year guidance and revenue trajectory - Management indicated that while revenue growth may improve, margins may not see significant improvement due to ongoing investments in digital [40][44] Question: Retention metrics and digital growth - Retail customer acquisition costs are about $2,500 per retailer, with payback in about seven months, while digital retention is slightly better than the prior quarter [50][55] Question: Monthly cadence and retail foot traffic stabilization - Management explained that they do not typically analyze monthly data due to variability but noted that retail performance is relatively stable [60][62] Question: Digital investment strategy - The company is committed to continuing its digital investments, viewing it as essential for future growth [71][72] Question: Impact of larger principal amounts on quarter performance - Management confirmed that if transactions had been at more normalized amounts, revenue could have been $7 million to $10 million higher [82]