The dollar index (DXY00) on Thursday rose by +0.08%.  The dollar recovered from overnight losses on Thursday and turned higher after weekly US jobless claims rose less than expected, a sign of labor market strength.  The dollar extended its gains after a stock market slump boosted liquidity demand for the currency. The dollar initially moved lower on Thursday amid a stronger yuan, which rallied to a 2.75-year high.  Dovish comments from Chicago Fed President Alan Goolsbee also weighed on the dollar, as h ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is up +0.18%.  The dollar recovered from overnight losses and turned higher after weekly US jobless claims rose less than expected, a sign of labor market strength.  The dollar extended its gains after a stock market slump boosted liquidity demand for the currency.  The dollar initially moved lower today amid a stronger yuan, which rallied to a 2.75-year high. US weekly initial unemployment claims rose by +4,000 to 212,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Wednesday fell by -0.16%.  The dollar moved lower on Wednesday amid a stronger yuan, which rallied to a 2.75-year high.   Also, comments on Tuesday evening by President Trump at the State of the Union address fueled trade uncertainty and weighed on the dollar, as he reiterated his resolve to impose trade tariffs.  In addition, strength in stocks on Wednesday reduced liquidity demand for the dollar. Losses in the dollar were limited amid weakness in the yen, which dropped to a ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.07%.  The dollar is slightly lower today amid a stronger yuan, which has rallied to a 2.75-year high against the dollar.   Also, comments on Tuesday evening from President Trump at the State of the Union address fueled trade uncertainty and weighed on the dollar when he reiterated his resolve to impose trade tariffs.  In addition, strength in stocks today has reduced liquidity demand for the dollar. Losses in the dollar are limited amid weakness in the yen, wh ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Tuesday rose by +0.16%.  The dollar moved higher on Tuesday amid weakness in the yen, which fell to a 2-week low against the dollar.  Also, Tuesday's better-than-expected US economic news of Dec S&P composite-20 home prices and Feb consumer confidence was supportive of the dollar. Gains in the dollar were muted on Tuesday due to the strength of the yuan, which rallied to a 2.75-year high against the dollar.   Also, US trade uncertainty may spur foreign investors to dump dollar ...

Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY) reached a 3.5-week high, closing up by +0.19% due to stronger-than-expected US economic data, including a drop in weekly jobless claims to a 5-week low of 206,000 and an unexpected rise in the February Philadelphia business outlook survey to a 5-month high of 16.3 [1][3] - The US December trade deficit widened to -$70.3 billion, the largest in 5 months, exceeding expectations of -$55.5 billion [2][3] - January pending home sales unexpectedly fell by -0.8% month-over-month, contrary to expectations of a +2.0% increase [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Hawkish comments from Fed Governor Stephen Miran indicated a "less accommodative" interest rate path, suggesting potential interest rate hikes if inflation remains above target [1][4] - The swaps market is currently pricing in a 6% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting scheduled for March 17-18 [4] Currency Market Dynamics - The euro (EUR/USD) dropped to a 3.5-week low, closing down by -0.16%, influenced by the dollar's strength and weaker-than-expected Eurozone consumer confidence [6] - The euro's decline was also affected by reports regarding ECB President Christine Lagarde's potential early departure from her position [6] Future Projections - The FOMC is anticipated to cut interest rates by approximately -50 basis points in 2026, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise rates by +25 basis points in the same year [5]

Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY) reached a 3.5-week high, increasing by +0.20% due to stronger-than-expected US economic data, including a drop in weekly jobless claims to a 5-week low of 206,000, which was better than the expected 225,000 [1][2] - The February Philadelphia business outlook survey unexpectedly rose by +3.7 to a 5-month high of 16.3, surpassing expectations of a decline to 7.5 [3] - The US December trade deficit widened to -$70.3 billion, the largest in 5 months and exceeding expectations of -$55.5 billion [3] - January pending home sales unexpectedly fell by -0.8% month-over-month, contrary to expectations of a +2.0% increase [3] Interest Rate Expectations - The FOMC is anticipated to cut interest rates by approximately -50 basis points in 2026, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise rates by +25 basis points in the same year [4] - Swaps markets are currently pricing in a 6% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on March 17-18 [3] Currency Movements - The EUR/USD pair dropped to a 3.5-week low, decreasing by -0.18%, influenced by the dollar's strength and weaker-than-expected Eurozone consumer confidence [5] - The Eurozone February consumer confidence index rose by +0.2 to -12.2, which was below expectations of -12.0 [6] - Swaps are indicating a 2% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) at its next policy meeting on March 19 [6]

Economic Indicators - US December capital goods new orders (nondefense ex-aircraft and parts) rose by +0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of +0.3% [3] - US December housing starts increased by +6.2% month-over-month to a five-month high of 1.404 million, surpassing expectations of 1.304 million [3] - US December building permits rose by +4.2% month-over-month to a nine-month high of 1.448 million, exceeding expectations of 1.400 million [3] - US January manufacturing production increased by +0.6% month-over-month, stronger than the expected +0.4% and marking the largest increase in 11 months [4] Mortgage Applications - US MBA mortgage applications rose by +2.8% in the week ended February 13, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down by -2.7% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up by +7.1% [2] - The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell by -4 basis points to 6.17% from 6.21% in the prior week [2] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The dollar index (DXY00) rallied to a one-week high, finishing up by +0.57%, supported by better-than-expected US economic reports and higher T-note yields [1] - The hawkish minutes from the January 27-28 FOMC meeting indicated that several officials suggested the Fed may need to raise interest rates if inflation remains above target [4] - Swaps markets are currently discounting a 6% chance for a -25 basis point rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18 [4] Currency Movements - The euro (EUR/USD) fell to a 1.5-week low, finishing down by -0.60%, as the dollar's strength weighed on the euro [6] - The dollar is expected to see underlying weakness as the FOMC is projected to cut interest rates by about -50 basis points in 2026, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise rates by +25 basis points in the same year [5]

Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) increased by +0.26%, supported by better-than-expected US economic reports on December capital goods new orders, housing starts, and manufacturing production [1] - US December capital goods new orders (nondefense ex-aircraft and parts) rose by +0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of +0.3% [3] - US December housing starts rose by +6.2% month-over-month to a five-month high of 1.404 million, surpassing expectations of 1.304 million [3] - US December building permits increased by +4.2% month-over-month to a nine-month high of 1.448 million, also above expectations of 1.400 million [3] - US January manufacturing production rose by +0.6% month-over-month, stronger than the expected +0.4% and marking the largest increase in 11 months [4] Mortgage Applications - US MBA mortgage applications rose by +2.8% in the week ended February 13, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down by -2.7% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up by +7.1% [2] - The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell by -4 basis points to 6.17% from 6.21% in the prior week [2] Currency Movements - EUR/USD decreased by -0.32%, with the dollar's strength impacting the euro, particularly after reports of ECB President Christine Lagarde's potential early departure [5] - USD/JPY increased by +0.70%, as the yen weakened due to a rise in the Nikkei Stock Index and stronger dollar [6]

Currency Market Analysis - The dollar index rose to a 1-week high, finishing up by +0.25%, supported by weakness in the euro and British pound, which fell to 1-week lows [1] - Hawkish comments from Fed officials, particularly regarding elevated services inflation and the likelihood of holding interest rates steady, contributed to the dollar's strength [1][4] - The euro fell to a 1-week low, down by -0.03%, pressured by an unexpected decline in the German ZEW expectations of economic growth survey [5][6] Economic Indicators - The US February Empire manufacturing general business conditions survey fell by -0.6 to 7.1, a smaller decline than the expected 6.2 [2] - The US February NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell by -1 to a 5-month low of 36, weaker than expectations of an increase to 38 [3] - The German February ZEW expectations of economic growth survey unexpectedly fell by -1.3 to 58.3, weaker than expectations of an increase to 65.2 [6] Interest Rate Outlook - Fed officials indicated that it may be appropriate to hold interest rates steady for some time, with swaps markets discounting a 7% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next policy meeting [4] - The dollar is expected to face underlying weakness as the FOMC is projected to cut interest rates by about -50 basis points in 2026, while the BOJ is expected to raise rates by +25 basis points in the same year [5] - Divergent central bank policies are bullish for the yen, with expectations of a BOJ interest rate increase in April, contrasting with the Fed and ECB maintaining or cutting rates [7]