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Noble plc(NE) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-28 14:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $254 million, with a margin of 32% [13] - Contract drilling services revenue totaled $798 million for Q3 2025, showing a sequential decline due to rigs rolling off contract [13] - Free cash flow for Q3 was $139 million, excluding $87 million in disposal proceeds, resulting in a cash balance of $478 million, an increase of $140 million from the previous quarter [13][14] - Full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance narrowed to $1.1 to $1.125 billion, with Q4 expected to be marginally lower than Q3 [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The backlog increased to $7 billion, with $2.4 billion and $1.9 billion scheduled for revenue conversion in 2026 and 2027, respectively [14] - The Noble Black Lion and Noble Black Hornet received two-year contract extensions from BP, valued at $310 million per rig [6][7] - The jackup Noble Resolute secured a one-year contract with ENI at a day rate of $125,000 [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The committed UDW rig count is approximately 100 rigs, with marketed utilization slightly above 90% [9] - Deepwater contracting momentum is improving, with an average of 18 UDW rig years fixed per quarter in Q2 and Q3, up 10% compared to the previous two years [9] - The Northern Europe market for jackups has stable activity at 90% marketed utilization [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on securing additional contracts to achieve 90-100% contract coverage across its high-spec drillships by the second half of 2026 [10] - The company aims to optimize cash flow while maintaining a competitive dividend and strong balance sheet [22] - There is a strategic emphasis on deepwater exploration as a critical component of the global upstream supply stack [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about a tightening deepwater market by late 2026 and early 2027, despite some near-term challenges [19][43] - The company is closely monitoring customer budget announcements, which have been less inspiring, impacting growth expectations [20] - There is a sense of urgency for upstream reserve replacement, indicating a potential shift towards deepwater investments [21][68] Other Important Information - The company expects to incur up to $135 million in additional outlays related to the termination of BOP service and lease contracts from the Diamond Offshore Drilling acquisition [17] - The company is committed to maintaining a robust return of capital program while managing costs effectively [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on improving utilization for high-spec floater fleet - Management is optimistic about securing contracts for the Noble Viking, Jerry DeSouza, and Black Rhino, with ongoing discussions [24] Question: Details on Diamond Offshore BOP leases - The service agreement has been terminated, with a $35 million payment expected in Q4, and a maximum of $135 million in cash outlays anticipated [25][26] Question: Expectations for first half of 2026 - Management indicated that the first half of 2026 may see lower earnings and cash flow, primarily driven by idle time on floaters [30][31] Question: Confidence in deepwater utilization recovery - Confidence is based on existing contracts and ongoing discussions, with a belief that day rates have bottomed [42][43] Question: Demand in West Africa versus South America - West Africa is experiencing slower demand recovery compared to South America, with expectations for improvement in late 2026 and 2027 [72]